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Week
13: Guru Sees NFC Picture Clearly
 My
friends, the Guru is about to predict
the future. This week's topic: the NFC playoff picture.
With five weeks remaining, the St. Louis Rams are the only lock
for the postseason with a 9-2 mark and a four-game NFC West lead.
The other NFC playoff contenders are the Skins (7-4), Dallas (6-5)
and Arizona (5-6) of the East; and Detroit (7-4), Minnesota (7-4),
Tampa Bay (7-4) and, last but not least, Green Bay (6-5) of the
Central.
Excluding the Rams, five of these teams will dance and the remaining
two will spend the early part of the New Year scraping peanut brittle
from their braces.
Dallas is likely to win the NFC East for three reasons. It has a
much easier schedule than Washington, the Cowboys win a tiebreaker
with the Skins due to their sweep of the season series and, most
significantly, I don't want Dallas to win.
I know this prediction sounds strange coming from the Guru, dressed
in burgundy and gold from head to toe, but this is the reality based
portion of the Crystal Ball - we'll dismiss all logic when it's
time to make the picks for this week.
In the Central, Minnesota and Tampa will both get in with records
of at least 10-6. Detroit will slide in at 9-7 and win a tiebreaker
if they defeat the Mighty Skins this weekend.
The final playoff spot will come down to the Packers and the Skins,
both likely to finish at 9-7. Using my unbiased math, the Skins
would earn the spot by virtue of a better conference record (8-4
vs 7-5), assuming things go as I expect they will.
A 10-5 mark last week moved my season record to 65-37 straight-up.
The Lock of the Week improved to 4-1 with Minnesota's win over San
Diego. This week's Lock is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will get
a test but prevail against Pittsburgh in a Thursday night contest.
Have a different opinion? Send
me an e-mail and I'll tell you where you've gone wrong.
Please check back Friday for the rest of the Guru's picks.
The Standings
| The
Guru |
65-37
|
Banned
in schoolhouses everywhere. |
| The
Norvell |
39-51-1
|
91
games. 91 Alka-Seltzers. |
| The
Swamp Fox |
34-80-1
|
99%
Swamp, 1% Fox |
The
Games
All times are Eastern. Picks are straight up, not against the spread.
Pittsburgh (5-6) at Jacksonville
(10-1) TV: ESPN, 8:20 p.m. THURSDAY
The Steelers are struggling. Rumors are rampant that coach Bill
Cowher will quit at the end of the season. For good reason, the
City of Pittsburgh hasn't been this depressed since the FDA decided
to strictly regulate the sale of scrapple, long a Pa. staple.
Jacksonville is 10-1 but the Guru isn't impressed with things like
fancy records and long winning streaks. (Of course, being a Skins'
fan, I don't see such things very often.)
You've got to do it in December, baby, and the Jags haven't convinced
me that they can. Still, Pittsburgh is a sitting duck. Jaguars,
28-17. (Speak
Out)
Green
Bay (6-5) at Chicago (5-7) TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
An enormous game for Green Bay, which needs a victory to
remain close in the race for a playoff spot. With QB Jim Miller
on the shelf for using steroids, Chi will turn to Cade McNown, the
gentlemen who made a living out of running over little old ladies
in the parking lot at UCLA (or something like that).
These games are always very tight and usually well played. Still,
I think the Pack will roll this week. Packers, 31-22.
(Speak Out)
Indianapolis (9-2) at Miami (8-3) TV: CBS,
1 p.m.
Think the Dolphins thought this would be a tough game when the schedules
came out? Months later, Jimmy Johnson is sweating like Pavarotti
touring the Sahara.
Mark it down: if the Colts win this game, they'll be 10-2. Also,
they'll wind up in the AFC Championship game. Dolphins, 27-23.
(Speak
Out)
New Orleans (2-9) at Atlanta (2-9)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
Last week, the Saints may have hit rock bottom when Mike Ditka
refused to take any blame for the team's showing in St. Louis. Hey,
this is progress: the coach didn't use a single obscene gesture.
Atlanta is a brutal football team and, when Jamal Anderson returns
next season, it won't get much better. Fortunately, the Falcons
have their savior - the one and only Swamp Fox - at the ready, living
in a shed behind their practice facility.
Three quick knocks on the door means "Come in and sign your
contract." Two knocks means "Bring the shovel. Dan Reeves
just ran over another squirrel in the parking lot." Falcons,
24-20. (Speak
Out)
New
York Jets (4-7) at New York Giants (5-6) TV: CBS, 1 p.m.
New York vs New York. Crime vs Apathy. Filth vs Muck. Giants vs
Jets.
Neither of these teams has more than a very remote shot at the postseason
but the Jets have played good ball as of late. Throw in the fact
that this Giants team is sniping at each other like a couple of
the Brady kids and I really like the Jets. Jets, 16-14.
(Speak Out)
St. Louis (9-2) at Carolina (5-6) TV:
Fox, 1 p.m.
The Rams are rolling like nobody's business but this game will be
a tough one for the yellow and blue.
Bottom line: this Carolina team, with the exception of jugbutt defensive
tackle Sean Gilbert, has overachieved under George Seifert and will
beat this St. Louis squad at their own game. Look for QB Steve Beuerlein
to have the biggest day of any German since Baron von Guruburg began
writing Der Cristal Ball in the late '50s. Panthers, 35-31.
(Speak
Out)
San Francisco (3-8) at Cincinnati (2-10)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
San Fran has mailed it in like the Unabomber and changes are bound
to happen in this proud organization. If they really want to do
what's right, they should cut the cord with Bill Walsh, who is too
old to go to the bathroom by himself, much less make important football
decisions.
Cincy is another brutal football outfit but at least the Bengals
are coming off a win. Three hundred yards for Jeff Blake. Minimum.
Bengals, 37-24.
(Speak
Out)
Tennessee (9-2) at Baltimore (4-7) TV:
CBS, 1 p.m.
This Baltimore defense can give the Titans fits. On the other hand,
the Ravens offense can give the Baltimore defense fits, as well.
I keep waiting for Tennessee to collapse but maybe it isn't going
to happen. Well, let's give it a couple of weeks. Titans,
19-17.
(Speak Out)
Washington (7-4) at Detroit (7-4)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m.
The Skins have defeated the Lions 18 consecutive times
dating back to when the Guru wasn't even a gleam in his daddy's
burgundy and gold eyes. Quite a bit has happened since then - Nixon,
Clinton, Pokemon.
Ironically, the Lions may try to exorcise their demons with none
other than one Gustavus Frerotte at quarterback. Gus had a decent
run with the Mighties but was undone by his inability to complete
passes to his teammates, which I'm told is important for a quarterback.
Then again, how would I know? I'm a captive of the Norvell Turner
era. Logic be gone!!! Skins, 38-35.
(Speak Out)
Cleveland (2-10) at San Diego (4-7) TV:
CBS, 4:15 p.m.
This Cleveland team is uglier than the Elephant Man in drag
but the Chargers are really reeling. The big news in San Diego of
late has been the return of child/QB Ryan Leaf from a team-imposed
suspension.
Warning: Children who watch this ballgame may be forced to undergo
extensive psychological counsel as teenagers. Browns, 13-10!
(Speak
Out)
Kansas City (6-5) at Denver (4-7) TV:
CBS, 4:15 p.m.
Traditionally one of the AFC's best rivalries, this game has lost
some of its spice with the Broncos in freefall. Still, it means
something to the Chiefs, who need to win to remain within striking
distance in the AFC.
Gunther Cunningham has done one of the league's best coaching jobs
this year as he has kept a mediocre team in the race. The same can't
be said for Denver's Mike Shanahan, who has turned the Broncos into
the Titanic. Broncos, 27-21. (Speak
Out)
Philadelphia (3-9) at Arizona (5-6)
TV: Fox, 4:15 p.m.
This game matches two men who are potentially two of the NFL's most
exciting quarterbacks: Doug Pederson and Dave Brown. Throw in coaches
Jim Fassel and Vince Tobin and the ballgame is full of vibrant and
exciting personalities. Chuck Grodin should broadcast this one.
Cardinals, 27-25.
(Speak Out)
Seattle (8-3) at Oakland (5-6) TV: CBS,
4:15 p.m.
The Seahawks took their lumps last week as the defensive-minded
Bucs ripped them apart. Jon Kitna had the worst game of his young
career, throwing five INTs and looking very confused. And you thought
Vinny Testaverde was injured?
Oakland continues to puzzle and confound under Jon Gruden, teasing
fans one week and disappointing them the next. Are you ready for
some (brutal, Al Davis) football? Seahawks, 34-17.
(Speak Out)
Dallas (6-5) at New England (6-5) TV:
ESPN, 8:20 p.m.
The Pats desperately need a win to 1) stay in the AFC race 2) save
coach Pete Carroll's job and 3) remove the curse of Tony the Patriot,
whose final words upon departing that unsightly city for picturesque
Washington, D.C., were "Honey Fitz couldn't carry Marion's
jock."
Mark it down: if Dallas wins this game, it'll roll to the NFC Eastern
Division title. Mark it down: If Dallas wins the NFC East, you can
read all about the Guru in the local obits. Patriots, 23-17.
(Speak
Out)
Minnesota (7-4) at Tampa Bay (7-4) TV:
ABC, 9 p.m. MONDAY
This game promises to be one of the best games of the season
with a red-hot Minnesota squad butting heads with the league's best
defensive team.
Anyone wondering about the whereabouts of injured Tampa QB Trent
Dilfer need look no further than the Bucs' defensive line: I think
Warren Sapp ate him. Far be it from a man as obese as me to cast
stones but Warren, my man, it's time to put Dick Simmons on your
speed dial. Vikings, 19-9.
(Speak Out)
Tell the Guru what you think
of his selections at AQB's Speak
Out board or e-mail
ArmchairQB.com.
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