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AQB
Feels A Draft
Previews Tell All Fans Want To Know (And Much More)
By
Randy Williams
NEW
YORK (AQB)--For some NFL fans, the season begins when training camp
begins in July. But, for hard-core followers, the April draft is
the first day of a new season.
With that
in mind, AQB reviewed two established publications - Mel
Kiper, Jr.'s 1999 Draft Report and Pro
Football Weekly's 1999 Draft Preview - and one newcomer,
The Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide.
Each is helpful and informative in their own way; Look for the summary
at the bottom of each review.
Important Note: Projected selectionss listed for each
publication are constantly updated as the stock of a given player
is always rising or falling. Click on any of the icons for information
on how to get the latest ratings and prognostications from Kiper,
Pro
Football Weekly and The
Sporting News.
Mel
Kiper, Jr.'s 1999 Draft Report, $25.95
[To see Kiper's Top
10 picks, click here]
 Some
don't like Mel Kiper, Jr. because of his big hair and big opinions
but even his critics would confess that he knows his stuff.
The Draft Report is a no-frills publication with extensive profiles
and opinions about each and every draftable player. The $25.95
price is as big as Kiper's pompadour but you get what you pay for
with a six-round mock draft, a very thorough analysis of each team's
draft needs, and an early look at prospects for next year's draft,
in addition to the player profiles.
The best part of this guide is Kiper's strong opinions, though
Bill Tobin probably wouldn't agree. (For those who don't recall,
Kiper loudly criticized Tobin's Colts in 1994 for taking Nebraska
LB Trev Alberts with Fresno State QB Trent Dilfer still on the board.
When asked about Kiper's criticism, Tobin asked "Has that guy
ever worn a jockstrap?" Great stuff.)
Naturally, Kiper loves the chances of Kentucky's Tim Couch and Texas'
Ricky Williams but here are some of his thoughts on potential
high draft choices some fans may not have heard much about:
On Miami tailback Edgerrin James, rising up the draft charts:
"...his hands and natural pass receiving skills are on a par
with any halfback I have graded over the last 20 years." Projected
pick: St. Louis, 6th selection, first round
On Oregon quarterback Akili Smith, whom Cleveland may choose
with the first selection in the draft: "If there is a concern
with Smith, it's that there has been too much elevation for a QB
who is basically just a one-year wonder. With the rare arm strength
he possesses, Smith is definitely worth any risk that might be involved."
Projected pick: Cincinnati, 3rd selection, first round
On UCLA offensive tackle Kris Farris, rated high by some
draft onlookers: "In talking with Farris, he just felt like
it was time to move on, that he didn't always fell challenged on
a week-to-week basis in the Pac-10. Well, Kris, get ready for the
big time, because that's about to change, and I mean in a hurry.
What worked at UCLA won't necessarily be enough against the best
pass rushers in the business." Projected pick: St. Louis,
68th selection, third round
Bad call from years past: On San Diego State quarterback
Dan McGwire, the brother of Mark, rated Kiper's top draftable
QB in 1991, "...a gifted pure passer, shows a command of the
offense, and has the physical strength to withstand the hits that
his 6-8 frame forced him to endure." Due to a broken hip, among
other struggles in Seattle, McGwire's career was practically over
by the time the 1991 publication was off the presses.
Great call from years past: Also in 1991, Kiper rated Brett
Favre the number two QB in the draft, much higher than others
did: "I really believe strongly that he has the natural ability
and overall attitude to make the successful transition to the NFL.
Would be ideal for a club looking to develop a starting QB of the
future, thus allowing him the time necessary to settle in at the
pro level." Yeah, I'd say he settled in quite nicely in Green
Bay after being traded by Atlanta, the club that drafted Favre.
Kiper's Top 10 1999 Selections
| 1. Cleveland |
Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky |
| 2. Philadelphia |
Ricky Williams, RB, Texas |
| 3. Cincinnati |
Akili Smith, QB, Oregon |
| 4. Indianapolis |
Chris Claiborne, LB, Southern California |
| 5. Washington |
Champ Bailey, CB, Georgia |
| 6. St. Louis |
Edgerrin James, RB, Miami |
| 7. Chicago |
Donovan McNabb, QB, Syracuse |
| 8. Arizona |
John Tait, OT, Brigham Young |
| 9. Detroit |
Jevon Kearse, LB/DE, Florida |
| 10. Baltimore |
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Central Florida |
...and 10 more picks of interest
| 15. Tampa Bay |
Cade McNown, QB, UCLA |
| 16. Tennessee |
Andy Katzenmoyer, LB, Ohio State |
| 19. N.Y. Giants |
Aaron Gibson, OT, Wisconsin |
| 29. Minnesota |
Shaun King, QB, Tulane |
| 35. Philadelphia |
Peerless Price, WR, Tennessee |
| 56. Jacksonville |
Dre Bly, CB, North Carolina |
| 99. St. Louis |
Joe Germaine, QB, Ohio State |
| 108. Cleveland |
Dat Nguyen, LB, Texas A&M |
| 140. Cleveland |
Autry Denson, RB, Notre Dame |
| 188. Atlanta |
Michael Bishop, QB, Kansas State |
Summary:
Comprehensive guide with extensive breakdowns of each draftable
player. Price is hefty but the die-hard fan will appreciate the
thoroughness of the profiles and the look at each NFL team. Kiper
isn't always right but he seems to have more hits than misses and
has made some great calls, such as when he rated then-Illinois QB
Jeff George the 84th-best player in the 1990 Draft.
[Click here or on the publication
icon to get Kiper's updated predictions.]
Back to top
The
Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide, $6.99
[To see TSN's Top 10 picks, click
here.]
 Yes,
sports fans, The Sporting News is now in the NFL Draft business,
putting its inaugural Draft Guide on newsstands in mid-March.
The initial effort by the so-called Bible of Baseball is a pretty
good one, led by the efforts of Gary Horton, a former NFL scout
and college coach who runs an NFL-related Web site called The
War Room (see "Armchair
on the Air" next week for an exclusive interview with
Horton).
TSN's Draft Guide doesn't offer as many player sketches as the other
previews but lists which round each player is likely to be picked
in and compares him with a current NFL player. An added bonus are
brief sidebar articles on one player at each position; usually a
guy fans haven't heard much about.
The magazine's coverage also includes an article about the QB
class of 1999; a piece on how players prepare for the Scouting
Combine; a story about the draft process for the new Cleveland
Browns; a look at Georgia two-way star Champ Bailey;
an article on the draft acumen, or lack thereof, of San Diego's
general manager, Bobby Beathard; and the best story, "The
life of an NFL scout," Horton's profile of Tennessee Titans
talent hound Glenn Cumbee.
A unique facet of TSN's magazine is the one-page profile on each
NFL club, with information on each team's decision makers; a
breakdown of team needs; draft outlook; and projected 1999 depth
chart. Each team's players are also graded according to whether
they "Can play for any team," are a "Solid player"
or are a "Fringe player."
Speaking of players, TSN's crew offers these thoughts on some
potential high draft choices:
On Ohio State linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer, who struggled
during his junior year in Columbus: "Even though he struggled
in 1998, Katzenmoyer offers a lot. If personnel-types are comfortable
with him as a person, he will be a high first-round pick."
Projected pick: St. Louis, 6th selection, first round
On
Louisiana State running back Kevin Faulk, a productive college
runner who is a mystery to some NFL clubs: "He has the qualities
to be a big-play threat, but he will be a situational player, and
because of that probably won't go in the first round." Projected
pick: Cincinnati, 33rd pick, second round
On UCLA quarterback Cade McNown, a player that Horton &
Co. compare with Arizona star-to-be Jake Plummer: "McNown is
a winner whose stock will rise as the draft gets closer. On draft
day, several teams will throw out the measurables and concentrate
on the player. In McNown's case, that makes a lot of sense."
Projected pick: Pittsburgh, 44th selection, second round
TSN's Top 10 1999 Selections
| 1. Cleveland |
Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky |
| 2. Philadelphia |
Ricky Williams, RB, Texas |
| 3. Cincinnati |
Champ Bailey, CB, Georgia |
| 4. Indianapolis |
Chris Claiborne, LB, Southern California |
| 5. Washington |
Chris McAlister, CB, Arizona |
| 6. St. Louis |
Andy Katzenmoyer, LB, Ohio State |
| 7. Chicago |
Donovan McNabb, QB, Syracuse |
| 8. Arizona |
Torry Holt, WR, North Carolina State |
| 9. Detroit |
John Tait, OT, Brigham Young |
| 10. Baltimore |
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Central Florida |
...and 10 more picks of interest
| 11. Minnesota |
Akili Smith, QB, Oregon |
| 12. New Orleans |
Jevon Kearse, LB/DE, Florida |
| 14. Kansas City |
Aaron Gibson, OT, Wisconsin |
| 24. Miami |
Edgerrin James, RB, Miami (Fla.) |
| 30. Atlanta |
Brock Huard, QB, Washington |
| 39. Detroit |
Peerless Price, WR, Tennessee |
| 57. New York Jets |
Joe Germaine, QB, Ohio State |
| 66. Chicago |
Dre Bly, CB, North Carolina |
| 69. San Diego |
Michael Bishop, QB, Kansas State |
| 155. Minnesota |
Dat Nguyen, LB, Texas A&M |
Summary:
Very good initial effort with great insight by Horton and his
troops. At $6.99, this guide also should appeal to NFL fans who
aren't draft fanatics but are interested in what their team will
do in mid-April. The features and team reports are a fine bonus.
[Click here
or on the publication icon to get TSN's updated predictions.]
Back to top
Pro Football Weekly 1999 Draft Preview, $19.95
[To see PFW's Top 10 picks, click here.]
 Kiper
has been at it for a long time but so has Joel Buchsbaum,
the point man for Pro Football Weekly's 1999 Draft Preview.
PFW's annual is always a great read with in-depth player profiles,
a position-by-position breakdown of each team's draft needs, grades
for all draftable players and a two-round mock draft.
One of the most interesting parts of Buchsbaum's coverage is his
glossary of terms used in player profiles, e.g., "Fluid
in the hips - player can turn his body with a fluid motion."
Very helpful stuff for the football fan who didn't compete at the
college or pro level and isn't knowledgeable about certain terms
used by pro scouts.
Buchsbaum scouts the players eligible for the 1999 draft in great
detail, listing his top 10 players at each position and breaking
down each player's profile into Notes, Positives, Negatives and
Summary. This is a little easier to read than the guide of Mr. Kiper,
whose report is typed in single-paragraph, block style.
Here are some of PFW's opinions on some players who may get the
call early on day one:
On Washington quarterback Brock Huard, who left Washington
after his worst season at UW: "Had another year of eligibility
and should have used it after the way he played in '98. Has lost
his confidence. Did not look very good throwing the ball late in
1998 or at the Combine." Projected pick: Oakland, 78th pick,
third round (pick from April issue of Pro
Football Weekly, which includes an updated mock draft)
On Jevon Kearse, Florida's All-America outside linebacker:
"...is not the player he has the physical tools to be. Kearse
could be in the Lawrence Taylor class if it ever all comes together
for him but may also be a mild disappointment as ex-Packer Fred
Carr was - but will not be a bust a la Aundray Bruce (Falcons) or
Keith McCants (Buccaneers) - if he doesn't." Projected pick:
Arizona, 8th pick, first round
On
USC inside linebacker Chris Claiborne, whom Buchsbaum sees
as an enigma: "At times, Claiborne leaves scouts feeling as
though he is the player Andy Katzenmoyer's press clippings are describing.
At other times, Claiborne leaves scouts feeling as though he is
a young man with marvelous talent who still has not decided if he
is willing to go the extra mile needed to become a truly great player."
Projected pick: Indianapolis, 4th pick, first round
Bad call from years past: On Virginia's James Farrior in the
1997 Draft Guide: "Could be this year's John Mobley. An active,
aggressive and athletic linebacker who makes plays and big plays
but does not have ideal size." Two years later, the Jets have
yet to feel Farrior's presence.
Great call from years past: Buchsbaum raved about Arizona
State star Jake Plummer in 1997, comparing him to the NFL's
finest quarterback: "...he is a winner and competitor with
great intangibles and just enough ability to get the job done if
the system he is in is tailored to fit his skills. This young man
has some of Joe Montana's intangibles and a care-free, fun-loving
approach to life and the game he plays." On the money,
so far.
PFW's Top 10 1999 Selections
| 1. Cleveland |
Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky |
| 2. Philadelphia |
Donovan McNabb, QB, Syracuse |
| 3. Cincinnati |
Champ Bailey, CB, Georgia |
| 4. Indianapolis |
Chris Claiborne, LB, Southern California |
| 5. Washington |
Ricky Williams, RB, Texas |
| 6. St. Louis |
Edgerrin James, RB, Miami (Fla.) |
| 7. Chicago |
Akili Smith, QB, Oregon |
| 8. Arizona |
Jevon Kearse, LB/DE, Florida |
| 9. Detroit |
Aaron Gibson, OT, Wisconsin |
| 10. Baltimore |
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Central Florida |
...and 10 more picks of interest
| 13. Pittsburgh |
John Tait, OT, Brigham Young |
| 18. Oakland |
Andy Katzenmoyer, LB, Ohio State |
| 22. Dallas |
Al Wilson, LB, Tennessee |
| 24. Miami |
Cecil Collins, RB, McNeese State |
| 27. San Francisco |
Cade McNown, QB, San Francisco |
| 32. Cleveland |
Peerless Price, WR, Tennessee |
| 33. Cincinnati |
Shaun King, QB, Tulane |
| 42. St. Louis |
Joe Germaine, QB, Ohio State |
| 45. Pittsburgh |
Kevin Johnson, WR/KR, Syracuse |
| 63. Denver |
Kris Farris, OT, UCLA |
Summary:
Outstanding preview with fine sketches of each prospect and
a nice breakdown of each team's draft needs. Buchsbaum's book is
so simple to read because he breaks each player's profile into positives
and negatives. No, it isn't cheap but it's money well spent by the
draft fanatic.
[Click
here or on the publication icon to get PFW's updated predictions.]
Images
are courtesy of the respective publications. Thanks to Shawn Griffin
of The Sports Weekly Journal for
reminding AQB of the particulars of Kiper's spat with Tobin.
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