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Bowl
Season Can't Start By George Stahl I guess it was a bad time to go with the favorites. Fortunately, I have had a couple weeks to calm down from the utter embarrassment of championship Saturday. On that fateful day, I said there was no way Miami could handle UCLA, that Texas A&M would get killed by Kansas State and that Army would roll over Navy. However, my spirits were broken like a cheap railing at Philadelphia's Veterans Stadium. My 1-6 record for the week dirtied my season mark to 104-116-2 and left me in a state of depressed dementia. (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through the Guru's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) But now, here come 22 bowl games over the next three weeks with me needing an 17-5 mark in order to finish the season at .500. O.K., so it's a long shot, but at least I'm going down fighting, which is more than I can say about that stinkin' Kansas State, which allowed Texas A&M to outscore the purple fade 24-6 after the third quarter. Oh, don't get me started again. ... where are my pills ...
Below are my
picks and previews of the upcoming bowl games. Check back often
as I add more bowl game previews. Remember, the picks are for
amusement purposes only. (Generally, your amusement over how inept
I am at picking the games.)
Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
San
Diego State (7-4) vs. North Carolina (6-5) Notes: Both teams began the season 0-3 ... San Diego State may be 7-4, but the losses came against the only four bowl-bound teams it played - Wisconsin, USC, Arizona and BYU. ... Not only did the Aztecs lose those games, they failed to cover in any of those games. ... San Diego State has not been to a bowl game since 1991 and has not won a bowl game since the Pasadena Bowl in 1969, when it beat Boston University, 27-7. ... After starting the year with three consecutive losses, the Tar Heels battled back under first-year head coach Carl Torbush, winning six of their last eight games, to finish in a fourth-place tie with N.C. State in the ACC. ... While this is San Diego's seventh bowl game, this is UNC's seventh straight bowl game. The Tar Heels are 4-2 straight-up and against the spread in the previous six bowl games, including winning their final three. ... Many are upset that UNC is even in a bowl game. The Tar Heels needed a win in overtime over rival North Carolina State to become bowl eligible; meanwhile, Miami of Ohio finished the season with a 10-1 record, which included a win over UNC in Chapel Hill. ... This will be the first meeting between North Carolina and San Diego State. Stars to watch: San Diego State junior receiver Damon Gourdine (55 catches for 649 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He also has two returns for a touchdown) was named All-WAC first team at wide receiver and return specialist as well as team MVP. He ranked first in the WAC in punt returns (second in the nation), fifth in the WAC in all-purpose yardage (26th in the country) and fourth in the WAC in kickoff returns (29th in the nation). ... Gourdine may see a lot of UNC junior cornerback Dre' Bly, the ACC's first three-time All-America and the conference's career interceptions leader. This year, Bly intercepted four passes, broke up 10 and had a career-high 44 tackles. Sleepers to watch: San Diego State junior defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, who received first-team All-Pacific Division honors, finished fourth on the team in tackles with 76 (43 unassisted) and first in tackles for a loss (15) and sacks (seven). ... UNC senior defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban, who was named to the first team All-ACC, finished third on the team in tackles (96), including 23 for a loss and a team-leading seven sacks. What to watch: See who plays quarterback for UNC. Senior Oscar Davenport (100 of 180 for 1,208 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions) and freshman Ronald Curry (66 of 148, for 975 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions) have each had their ups and downs this season. Curry, though, was injured in UNC's season-ending win over North Carolina State but should be able to play. ... Check out how UNC looks on artificial turf. The Tar Heels have not played on the fake stuff since beating Houston at the Astrodome, 42-14, in the middle of the 1996 season. San Diego, though, has played five games on turf since that UNC game, including a 24-14 upset win over Tulsa earlier this year. ... While UNC's defense is more recognizable, San Diego State's unit has had one of its best seasons ever. The Aztecs' defense ranks 35th in total defense, allowing 336.5 yards a game, while North Carolina is 41st, yielding 346.6 yards a game. Prediction: UNC is certainly the more talented team, but the Tar Heels have been the more talented team in most of their games this year, only to sneak into the Las Vegas Bowl with a 6-5 team. I think there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that suggests that UNC is going to have a tough time in this game. The Tar Heels are an immature team staying in Las Vegas, are playing on artificial turf for the first time in more than two years and have a first-year coach. Meanwhile, San Diego State is used to playing and being close to Vegas, has played and won on the fake stuff this year and has an experienced coach in Ted Tollner, who will be coaching in his fourth bowl (he was 1-2 at USC). More importantly, San Diego State campaigned heavily for this bowl, while UNC sees it as a fitting way to end a disappointing season. UNC wins, thanks to its talent, but just barely. North Carolina 27, San Diego State 24. [Actual score: UNC 20, San Diego St. 13. I tied with the seven points. 0-0-1.] Back
to the list
Marshall
(11-1) vs. Louisville (7-4) Notes: What a job John L. Smith has done at Louisville. The first-year coach has turned a 1-10 team in 1997 into a bowl team and has formed one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Cardinals scored 63 points twice this season, reached 62 points once and 52 another time. They never scored fewer than 21 and averaged 40.4 points a game. ... While Louisville may be the biggest turnaround this year, Marshall is the winningest college football program in Division I-A or I-AA in the 1990s with a 100-25 record. The school is the only one with 100 wins this decade. This was Marshall's eighth straight season with 10 or more wins and its 10th postseason appearance in 12 years. From 1987 to 1996, the Thundering Herd played in six Division I-AA championship games, winning two. ... The Thundering Herd, despite losing wide receiver Randy Moss to the NFL, also has a high-octane offense, averaging 29.8 points a game. The Herd scored 42 points three times. The only loss was 34-13 at Bowling Green. ... Marshall, which moved up from Division I-AA two years ago, returns to the Motor City Bowl after repeating as Mid-American Conference champion. Louisville finished third in Conference USA, behind Tulane and Southern Mississippi. ... This game should follow the spirit of last year's inaugural Motor City Bowl, in which there were two touchdowns scored in the first 41 seconds of a game between Mississippi and Marshall. Ole Miss edged the Herd 34-31 on a touchdown with 31 seconds remaining. ... This is Louisville's first bowl since beating Michigan State, 18-7, in the Liberty Bowl in 1993. ... This is the 26th meeting between the teams but the first since 1987, when Marshall won 34-31. Louisville has a 16-9 edge in the series. Stars to watch: Marshall quarterback Chad Pennington (279 of 432, or 64.6%, for 3,419 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions) is 18th in the country at passing efficiency at 146.2 and is facing the third-worst total defense in the country. Pennington also is 14th in the country in total offense, averaging 283 yards a game. ... Louisville quarterback Chris Redman (309 of 473, or 65.3%, for 4,042 yards, 29 touchdowns and 15 interceptions) ranks 12th in the nation in passing efficiency with a 151.0 rating, despite missing his team's season-ending 35-23 victory over Army with an injury. Redman is second in the country in total offense, averaging 400.90 yards a game, and leads the nation's best total offense that captures nearly 560 yards a game. Sleepers to watch: Marshall free safety Rogers Beckett is one of the best defensive backs in the MAC. The junior, listed at an impressive 6-3, 205 pounds, was second on the team with 110 tackles and with three interceptions. He also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown early in the year. ... Louisville sophomore linebacker Bud Herring led the team with 135 tackles, hitting double figures in seven of the 11 games. The former defensive back had 21 tackles against East Carolina two games ago. What to watch: This game will be decided by which defense makes a stop. If that is the case, give the edge to Marshall, whose defense is 23rd in the country, allowing 317.6 yards a game. Louisville's defense is the third-worst in the country, allowing 480.6 yards a game. The Cardinals defense is worse than Clinton's, allowing more touchdown passes, rushing yards and points per game than any other bowl team this year. ... Marshall will be the best passing defense, statistically, that Louisville has faced all year. Before Marshall, the best passing defense Louisville faced was Utah, who beat the Cardinals 45-22 in Utah in the second game of the season. In that game, Redman threw for 350 yards but completed only 29 of 57 passes for one touchdown and had four interceptions. ... Look for Marshall, which averages 142.3 yards a game rushing, to run the ball more against Louisville to keep the Cardinal offense off the field. This shouldn't be hard, considering Louisville's defense is 108th in the country, allowing 238.7 yards a game on the ground. ... As always, keep an eye on turnovers. Marshall is a plus-11, while Louisville is minus-2. Prediction: I can't believe that Louisville is favorite. As impressive as Redman and the Louisville offense has been this year, the Cardinals defense has been equally depressing to the school's fans. This could be the worst defense to ever play in a bowl game. Marshall has been here before, knows the routine and wants to revenge last year's loss. I will gladly scoop up the three points and watch the Herd roll. Marshall 38, Louisville 30. [Actual score: Marshall 48, Louisville 29. I win. 1-0-1.] Back
to the list
Colorado
(7-4) vs. No. 21 Oregon (8-3) Notes: Revenge will be on the mind of many Ducks, including coach Mike Bellotti. Colorado trounced Oregon, 38-6, in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1, 1996. More than that, though, Bellotti and his Ducks disliked the fact that the Buffaloes tried a fake field goal in the second half when they were winning by a large margin. I'm sure Bellotti, who was in his first year, remembers that well. ... Oregon already had made reservations and plans for the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. But UCLA's loss to Miami pushed the Ducks down the bowl chain to Hawaii. Oregon, which would have had no problem selling reservations for San Diego, is having a hard time motivating alumni and fans to travel to Hawaii for Christmas. Before its season-ending overtime loss to rival Oregon State, Oregon was even thinking about a New Year's Day game. ... Only two of Colorado's seven wins have come against teams with winning records (Colorado State and Texas Tech). ... Colorado has won and covered its last four bowl games, including its last one when it beat Washington, 33-21, in the Holiday Bowl. ... Oregon won and covered in a bowl game for the first time this decade when it beat Air Force, 43-13, in last year's Las Vegas Bowl. Before that, Oregon was 0-4 straight-up and against the spread in its four bowl games in the 1990s. Stars to watch: Colorado senior receiver Darrin Chiaverini (52 catches for 629 yards and five touchdowns) made the Big 12 second team by leading the Buffaloes in touchdowns. Chiaverini had a catch in every game but the season-ending loss to Nebraska. ... Oregon senior quarterback Akili Smith (191 of 325 for 3,307 yards, 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions) became the first Duck to win Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year honors, an award he shared with UCLA quarterback Cade McNown. His passing yards was fourth-best in Pac-10 history, and his touchdowns were third-best. Overall, Smith was second in the country in passing efficiency with a 170.4 rating and eighth in total offense, averaging 317.27 yards a game. Kabisa Akili Maradu Smith also can run the ball, gaining 183 yards and three touchdowns on 74 carries. Sleepers to watch: Colorado sophomore cornerback Ben Kelly was the lone Buffalo selection to the Big 12 first team, making it as defensive back and kick returner. He was third in the conference in kickoff returns with a 23.7 yard average (37th in the nation) and second in the league in interceptions with four (36th in the nation. ... Oregon senior linebacker Chris Vandiver, an All-Pac 10 honorable mention, led the team in tackles (86) and tackles for a loss (11). What to watch: See how well Oregon's offense operates without its best receiver, Tony Hartley (48 catches for 1,015 yards and 10 touchdowns), who has been suspended indefinitely for violating unspecified team rules by Bellotti and won't make the trip to Hawaii. The junior finished third in the Pac-10 in receiving yards at 92.3 per game and his 10 touchdowns tied a school season record, also held by Bobby Moore (better known now as Ahmad Rashad) and Cristin McLemore. Senior Donald Haynes (19 catches for 331 yards and one touchdown) is expected to replace Hartley as a starting wideout. ... The battle between Oregon's passing offense and Colorado's passing defense will be the key to the game. The Buffaloes passing defense ranks fourth in the nation, yielding a measly 91.9 yards a game and only four touchdowns all year. However, Colorado has not faced a passing offense as potent as Oregon's all year. The Ducks have the 11th-best passing attack in the nation, averaging 309.1 yards a game through the air. The best passing offense that the Buffaloes have faced this year was Kansas State on Oct. 10, when it held Wildcat stud quarterback Michael Bishop to only 148 yards on nine-of-25 passing and one interception. ... Overall, Colorado had its best total defense, statistically, since 1992, yielding only 296 yards a game. This is only the fourth time since the 11-game schedule started in 1971 that Colorado has held opponents under a 300-yard average for the season. Oregon, though, scored 40 or more points six times this season. ... See if the Ducks can force some turnovers. Oregon had the fewest fumbles recovered in Division I-A (five) and the fewest turnovers gained among bowl participants (15). Prediction: This game is hard to pick because one can't be sure which Oregon team will come out - the one enraged by Colorado's blowout and antics two years ago or the one disappointed that it is "stuck" in Hawaii on Christmas. I'm going to guess that the Ducks start sluggish but eventually its offense, even without Hartley, will be too much for Colorado. Oregon 28, Colorado 17. [Actual score: Colorado 51, Oregon 43. Oops. 1-1-1.] Back
to the list No.
16 Air Force (11-1) vs. Washington (6-5) Notes: Air Force enters the inaugural Oahu Bowl and the nightcap of college football's first-ever doubleheader, having won eight straight, which is the fourth longest streak in the nation. Earlier this month, the Falcons beat BYU in the WAC championship, 20-13. ... While many of the Falcons' wins this year were blowouts, the last three have been by a total of 20 points. Air Force's only loss was by a point, 35-34, against Texas Christian on Sept. 26. ... Washington, meanwhile, has lost three of its last four games, beating only Washington State in the season finale. The Huskies, who finished fifth in the Pac 10, needed that win to become bowl eligible and to continue its string of 22 winning regular seasons. ... Air Force is 10-2 against the spread this year, while Washington is 3-7-1, including a 1-5 record to end the season. ... Air Force has lost three straight bowl games since beating Mississippi State, 38-15, in the 1991 Liberty Bowl. The Falcons have a 6-7-1 all-time bowl mark. ... Washington has lost three of its last four bowl games but crushed Michigan State, 51-23, in last season's Aloha Bowl, played on the same field and at the same place as last year. Washington is 14-10-1 in bowl games. ... Air Force leads the overall series with Washington, three games to two, but the Huskies have won the last two meetings. The two teams are scheduled to play Sept. 18 in a nonconference game in Seattle. Stars to watch: Washington junior quarterback Brock Huard (168 of 315 for 1,924 yards, 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions) already has announced that he's passing up his senior year to enter April's draft despite a disappointing, injury-plagued year. He played in only nine games this year, missing two because of a separated left shoulder. He finished his career (the NCAA doesn't add bowl games to career numbers) with 5,742 passing yards and 51 touchdown passes. Because of his injury tendency, it is unclear right now where Huard might go in next year's NFL draft. ... Air Force senior quarterback Blane Morgan (60 of 111 for 1,139 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions) has a sprained ankle but is expected to play. Morgan entered the BYU game in the second quarter despite the injury and led the Falcons to a comeback win with a 59-yard touchdown pass to Matt Farmer with 3:49 left. Morgan is more potent running the option than throwing, as he has rushed for 508 yards, or 3.5 yards a carry, and 15 touchdowns. Sleepers to watch: Washington senior linebacker Todd Johnson, a walk-on, led the team in tackles (70), tackles for a loss (14) and sacks (eight). ... Air Force senior cornerback Tim Curry, a first-team All-WAC defensive pick, had 63 tackles, one interception and a team-high seven passes broken up. What to watch: How will Huard play in his last football game at Washington? The 6-5, 225-pound junior, whose place among other college quarterbacks is uncertain because of his injury-plagued career, knows his performance in this game will go a long way to determining his draft pick. ... Can the Falcons continue to force turnovers? Air Force has one of the best turnover margins (plus-17) in the country, while Washington has one of the weakest (minus-6). As a matter of fact, Washington has the fewest interceptions, five, of any bowl team. ... See how Morgan's sprained ankle handles the pressure from Washington's defense, which is a blitz-happy bunch that leads the NCAA in sacks with 49. ... Can the Huskies do a better job against the option? In its game early in the year against Nebraska, another option offense, the Huskies allowed 434 rushing yards in a 55-7 loss. Air Force's running game is ranked third in the country, averaging 266.8 yards a game. ... Will Air Force's defense, ranked 11th in total defense (293.5 yards a game) and sixth in scoring defense (13.3 points a game), finally play well in a bowl game? The Falcons have yielded 98 points combined in its last two bowl appearances. ... Meanwhile, the Huskies' defense, ranked 88th in total defense (402.5 yards a game) and 63rd in scoring defense (27.1 points a game), has yielded 33 points per game in their last four bowl games. Prediction: Washington is another team whose bowl presence is questionable, while Air Force is just two points away from a perfect season. Even with a hobbled Morgan, the Falcon offensive attack is too strong for the Huskies. Air Force and Morgan impressed me against BYU, and will do so again here. Air Force 24, Washington 10. [Actual score: Air Force 45, Washington 25. I win. 2-1-1.] Back
to the list
Bethune-Cookman
(8-2) vs. Southern (8-3) Southern will try to repeat as champions when it battles Bethune-Cookman in the eighth Heritage Bowl, which matches historically black colleges from the Southwestern Athletic Conference and the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Southern, which last year beat South Carolina State, 34-28, is seeking to win its fourth Heritage Bowl in five trips. Bethune-Cookman, which is representing the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, is playing in its first Heritage Bowl and its first postseason game in 21 years. Players to watch: Southern quarterback Sam George (133 of 261 for 1,935 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions) and senior receiver John Foreman (70 catches for 1,119 yards and 11 touchdowns) ... Bethune-Cookman quarterback Patel Troutman (48 of 123 for 892 yards, five touchdowns and 10 interceptions; 182 carries for 1,042 yards, or 5.7 yards a game, and 15 touchdowns) and James Adderly (39 catches for 841 yards and eight touchdowns) have combined for more than half (23) of the team's 45 touchdowns this year. What to watch: Can Southern's defense, which allows 170.8 rushing yards a game, contain Bethune-Cookman's Troutman-led option attack, which averages 230.6 yards a game. ... See how well Southern will be able to throw against Bethune-Cookman, which surrenders only 125 passing yards a game. However, B-C probably has never seen a passing offense as potent as Southern, which averages 241.7 yards a game. Interesting note: The coaches, Southern's Pete Richardson and Bethune-Cookman's Alvin Wyatt, were teammates in the Buffalo Bills defensive backfield 30 years ago. [Actual score: Southern 28, Bethune-Cookman 2. ] West
Virginia (8-3) vs. No. 23 Missouri (7-4) Notes: West Virginia, 7-12 in the postseason, has lost seven straight bowl games since 1984. The Mountaineers last bowl win was a 31-14 triumph over Texas Christian in the Bluebonnet Bowl on New Year's Eve 1984. ... Missouri, 8-12 all-time in bowls, has lost two bowl games since beating Southern Mississippi, 19-17, in the 1981 Tangerine Bowl. ... West Virginia finished the season with four straight wins, while Missouri lost its last two (17-14 to Texas A&M and 31-25 to Kansas State). All four of Missouri's losses came to teams who were ranked in the top 10. ... Both teams lost to Ohio State. West Virginia lost 34-17 at home on Sept. 5, while Missouri lost 35-14 at Columbus. .... Missouri signed coach Larry Smith to a five-year contract. Smith, the country's 12th-winningest active coach with a 22-year career record of 135-111-7, is one of just four coaches in NCAA history to take four different schools (Tulane, Arizona, USC and Missouri) to bowl games. The 59-year-old is 25-31-1 in five seasons at Missouri. ... West Virginia coach Don Nehlen, who has a career record of 191-115-8, has the most wins in Mountaineer history (138-80-4). ... This game is a homecoming of sorts for Smith, who coached at Arizona from 1980-86 and still owns a home about a quarter-mile away from where the team will practice. Stars to watch: West Virginia junior running back Amos Zereoue (261 carries for 1,430 yards, or 5.5 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns) is West Virginia's all-time leading rusher. Zereoue is known for his quick cuts and his ability to make tacklers miss in the open field. ... Missouri senior quarterback Corby Jones (87 of 178 for 1,281 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions; 168 carries for 536 yards, or 3.2 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns) runs Missouri's option very well. He had a tremendous season, considering the death of his father, a Missouri assistant coach, from a fatal heart attack a few weeks before the season and a nagging toe injury throughout the season. He did have his worst year as a passer, completing less than half his passes for the first time in three years as a starter. When healthy, as he is now, Jones is an extremely dangerous runner. Sleepers to watch: West Virginia junior quarterback Marc Bulger (240 of 369, or 65%, for 3,178 yards, 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions) led the Big East in total offense and ranks eighth in the nation in passing efficiency with a 157.2 rating. Bulger had five games this season where he completed more than 70 percent of his passes. In the season finale against Pittsburgh, he tossed six touchdown passes and threw for 409 yards. ... Missouri running back Devin West (283 carries for 1,578 yards, or 5.6 yards a carry, and 18 touchdowns) is fifth in the country in rushing, averaging 143.45 yards a game. West is a workhorse who is at his best running between tackles. What to watch: Can Missouri's secondary, which starts three seniors and features four starters who received some sort of all-conference mention, contain arguably the best receiving corps in the country? Certainly, the Tiger defensive backs haven't faced this kind of cumulative talent in the Big 12. Senior Shawn Foreman (52 catches for 759 yards and eight touchdowns), who repeated as a first-team All-Big East selection, is a threat to score every time he touches the ball; senior David Saunders (69 catches for 788 yards and six touchdowns) led the Big East in catches; and junior Khori Ivy (40 catches for 650 yards and five touchdowns) is a big-play threat, averaging 16.2 yards a catch. Finally, don't forget Anthony Becht (23 catches for 306 yards and four touchdowns), who is one of the nation's top receiving tight ends. The Missouri secondary is led by senior free safety Harold Piersey, who led the team in tackles (93) for the second straight year. Piersey also had four interceptions. ... See how much Missouri's special teams, one of the worst in the country, hurt them. The Tigers, who have used four different kickers, have only four field goals to show for it. In three of four Tiger losses, there was at least one major special teams breakdown. Meanwhile, West Virginia has an above-average special teams that is very good at blocking kicks. ... How well will West Virginia's defense contain Jones and West, who have accounted for 37 of Missouri's 42 touchdowns. Prediction: Missouri has been very good to me this season, compiling a 9-1 record against the spread, with its only loss against the number coming in a week where it would have covered against the opening line (a 20-6 win while giving 16 1/2 to Oklahoma State, who opened at +13 1/2). However, I am surprised that the Tigers are favored here. West Virginia has more offensive weapons and its defense played well over the final three weeks. West Virginia is the better team, but Missouri is the better-coached team. Missouri wins, West Virginia covers. Missouri 31, West Virginia 28. [Actual score: Missouri 34, West Virginia 31. As I predicted, the 1/2-point saved me. 3-1-1.] Back
to the list The Associated Press, SportsTicker, The Sporting News College Football yearbook, The Sporting News web site, College & Pro Football Newsweekly and Sportsform contributed information for this article. By George Stahl |
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