College Football Picks

Bet Florida State For The Season,
But Take Texas A&M This Week

Florida St. will defeat Arizona St. 38-17 in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4 to win the first-ever Bowl Championship Series and be crowned champions of college football.

There you go. No need to read further. No need to watch the games. I just told you the ending to a four-month drama.

I’m sorry; I hope I didn’t ruin it for you. (By the way, Rosebud is a sled.)

Oh, alright, so maybe I don’t know for sure. (And what does the sled really represent, anyway?) But Florida St. is my pick to win it all, based on nothing else but reading a few preview magazines and analyzing my gut.

However, I will accurately predict that this year's college football season will be fun to watch.

And hopefully, we will watch it together. Each week here, I’ll take a look at every game that is either on television or involves a Top 25 team. I’ll offer whatever little insight I can - some notes and trends, some players to watch and some themes to track. I’ll also offer a prediction for you to throw back in my face Sunday.

The predictions are for amusement and comedic purposes only, of course.

I have no magical theories or special gambling tips. Just a love for college football and a web site of my own to express that love. I’m more Georgie the Geek than Jimmy the Greek.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the first weekend of college football...

This week's games:
Colorado St. at Michigan St.	Purdue at USC
Louisiana Tech at Nebraska	Texas A&M vs. Florida St.

All times are Eastern.

Saturday

Black Coaches Association Classic
Colorado St. at Michigan St.
Michigan State -4 1/2
4 pm East Lansing, Mich.
ESPN 2

Notes: First meeting ever between the two teams. ... Michigan St. is 4-2 in home openers in the past six years. ... Colorado St., over the past four years, is 8-3 against the spread as a road underdog. ... Over past 3 years, Michigan St. is 9-2-1 against the spread in games where the line is plus or minus four.

Stars to watch: Colorado St. running back Damon Washington returns for his senior season after rushing for more than 1,000 yards in each of his past two seasons. But his 1,112 yards last year were only a yard better than teammate Kevin McDougal, a converted safety who averaged 7.4 yards a carry as a sophomore last year. ... Michigan State also has a decent running back with All-America and Doak Walker award candidate Sedrick Irwin, a junior who also has run for more than 1,000 yards in each of the past two years. Junior defensive end Robaire Smith had 12 sacks last year.

Sleepers to watch: This guy may be little known outside the WAC, but that is expected to change as Colorado St. touts senior offensive guard Anthony Cesario as an Outland Trophy candidate and the best guard in the country. I saw that ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. had him ranked sixth in the country. ... Michigan St. cornerback Amp Campbell had five interceptions last year, tops among those returning.

Things to watch: When Colorado St. has the ball, keep your eyes on the big uglies, as Keith Jackson would say, because the Colorado St. offensive line and the Michigan St. defensive line are considered among the best. ... The quarterbacks for both teams are questions. CSU's Ryan Eslinger, a fifth-year senior, replaces last year’s offensive player of the year in the WAC, Moses Moreno; while Bill Burke, who has suffered from back problems, leads the MSU huddle.

Prediction: This should be an entertaining early season game. Expect a lot of running and some big mistakes on both sides of the ball. Take Michigan State because they have the home field advantage, are from a better conference and are hungry after being blown out at the Aloha Bowl last year by Washington, 51-23. ... Michigan St. 30-24.

Notes: Nebraska is 26-10 against the spread at home in past 36 games. ... Louisiana Tech was 2-1 against the spread last year as double-digit dogs.

Stars To Watch: Louisiana Tech quarterback Tim Rattay lead the nation in total offense, averaging 359.78 yards a game. The junior college transfer finished second in the nation in passing yards (3,881) and completions (293). Rattay had more 300-yard passing games in his first year (9) than a certain bald Fox studio analyst and La. Tech alumni. ... Who isn’t a star at Nebraska? Fortunately we will have all year to acknowledge them. This week, we’ll start with tailback DeAngelo Evans, who has had a nagging pelvic injury, but is expected to be the next great Nebraska I-back.

Sleepers To Watch: Louisiana Tech wide receiver Troy Edwards, who was first in the nation last year in receiving and all-purpose yards. ... Nebraska fullback Joel Makovica, a former walk-on and first-team academic All-American, is a bruising blocker and hard-nosed runner.

Things to watch: See how well, if at all, Louisiana Tech can get its offensive running against defending national co-champions. ... See how Nebraska and new coach Frank Solich react to not having Tom Osborne on the sidelines as head coach for the first time in 25 seasons.

Predictions: Remember the Central Florida-Nebraska game last year? Central Florida, behind highly-touted quarterback Daunte Culpepper, led at halftime, 17-14, before losing 38-24. Now I'm not predicting that La. Tech will have the lead at halftime, but I like them with the points against a Nebraska team that is talented but will need time to gel, and isn't as overpowering as years past. Nebraska will win this game and most of their games this year (what a prediction, huh?); but instead of winning 63-0 like they did before, they will more games like this: Nebraska 42 La. Tech 20.

Sunday

Pigskin Classic
Purdue at USC
2:30 pm Los Angeles
USC -6 1/2
ABC

Notes: Purdue is 2-8 against the spread in their first away game each season over the past 10 years. ... USC is 4-10 against the spread as home favorite over past three years. ... USC is 4-2 against the spread in the past six games against the Big 10.

Stars To Watch: Purdue defensive end Rosevelt Colvin, who had 22 tackles for a loss and 12.5 sacks last year. ... USC is another team filled with big-play stars. This week, we recommend watching USC wide receiver R. Jay Soward, who had 48 catches, eight touchdowns and a 17.3-yard average last year.

Sleepers To Watch: Purdue middle linebacker Willie Fells last year had 131 tackles (third in Big Ten) ... USC inside linebacker Chris Claiborne has been called “perhaps the best pure athlete in the country” by Preview Sports. So maybe he is not a sleeper, but the 6-3, 250 pound junior is one to watch.

Things To Watch: Pay attention to USC quarterback Mike Van Raaphorst, who took over for John Fox at midseason last year but hurt his ankle two games later. Watch how he is handling new coach Paul Hackett’s system. ... For that matter, see how Hackett is handling his own system as head coach. ... Check out if Big Ten coach of the year, Joe Tiller, can keep his magic going, especially on offense, where the Big Ten’s leader in total offense returns only four starters.

Prediction: I see an upset here as Tiller’s magic continues and Hackett takes his lumps in his first game. Purdue 20, USC 17.

Notes: First regular season game on astroturf for Florida St. since November 1994. It’ll be Florida St.’s only regular season game on turf this year. ... Texas A&M are 8-1 straight-up in their past 9 season openers. ... The teams last met in the 1991 Cotton Bowl, Florida St. won 10-2. ... The past five kickoff classics have been blowouts, with the average scoring differential being 31.2 points. Three of the past five classics have been shutouts.

Stars To Watch: Texas A&M inside linebacker Dat Nguyen last year had 150 tackles, 18 of which were for a loss. The 6-0, 216-pound senior - a Butkus Award candidate - has averaged more than 10 tackles a game in his college career. ... Where do we start with Florida St.? How about at last year’s ACC Rookie of the Year, Travis Minor. The 6-1, 190-pound sophomore hopes to continue in the footsteps of fellow Baton Rouge (La.) Catholic graduate, Warren Dunn, and lead the Seminoles to a national championship. Dunn did that in 1993.

Sleepers To Watch: Texas A&M punter Shane Lechler, who averaged 47 yards a punt last year, is the highest rated returning punter in the NCAA. He is also a former high school quarterback, so watch for fakes! ... O.K., after receiving more press than any other 26-year-old college athlete, maybe he isn’t a sleeper, but Chris Weinke’s ability is largely unknown and will be the focus of much (more) attention. (Having read a lot about Weinke, I - as a fellow 26-year-old - have a better understanding why my 43-year-old brother is so interested in Steve DeBerg and the Falcons this year. :-)

Things To Watch: Check out how well the Florida St. defense, which has many talented but first-time starters, handles the Texas A&M’s awesome running trifecta of Dante Hall, Sirr Parker and D’Andre Hardeman. ... Watch Weinke and his handling of the potent Florida St. offense. As long as he doesn’t press things, I have a feeling he is going to have an excellent year. ... Enjoy seeing two coaching giants, A&M’s R.C. Slocum and Florida State’s Bobby Bowden, who always have their teams well-prepared.

Prediction: Like recent Kickoff Classics, this has the potential to be blowout, depending on how sharp Weinke is and how well Florida State’s defense handles the run. However, I see both Weinke and the defense having some early season problems. Not enough to loss, but enough for the Aggies to cover. Florida St. 27 Texas A&M 14.

For George's review of ABC's Kickoff Classic coverage, click here

By George Stahl