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Polls Show I Had The results are in, the games have been tallied and the decision is final... I had an awesome week last week, going a remarkable 13-6 and bringing my season record to a more respectable 72-77-1. Another week like last, and I'll finally poke my head above the .500 mark for the first time all season. (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through AQB's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) While there are many interesting games, there are only two involving two members of the AP Top 25 poll. One is a battle for first place in the ACC as No. 6 Florida State hosts No. 12 Virginia, while the other is a Big 10 battle between No. 9 Penn State at No. 22 Michigan in Ann Arbor. There are also some interesting rivalry games this week. No. 8 Wisconsin will renew the most-played rivalry in Division I-A when it fights Minnesota for Paul Bunyon's Axe. No. 13 Notre Dame engages in another Holy War with the only other Catholic school in Division I-A football, Boston College. Finally, No. 25 Air Force battles Army for the Commander-in-Chief trophy. However, these games are just the opening act for a wonder batch of games on Nov. 14 and Nov. 21. Make sure you check back each week to see my previews and picks for all the big games. Here are my previews and picks for all the games this week involving Top 25 teams as well as for ESPN's lame Thursday night game. Remember, this is for amusement purposes only. (Generally, your amusement over how inept I am at picking the games.) Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
East
Carolina (1-2 in Conference USA; 4-4 overall) at Cincinnati
(0-4; 0-8) Notes: The two teams bring a combined 11-game losing streak into the game. ... Cincinnati is one of four winless Division I-A teams. Kent, UNLV and Hawaii are the others. ... East Carolina is 1-6-1 against the spread in sandwiched road games over the past four years. ... Cincinnati is 6-3 against the spread in the last nine games after a bye week. ... The game was originally scheduled to be Homecoming on Saturday; however, it was moved to accommodate ESPN. The question is why? ... Homecoming for Cincinnati will be next week against Houston. ... The Bearcats gave away 15,000 tickets for the game, so the stands would look respectable. ... This is the first time ESPN will broadcast a game from Nippert Stadium. ... Last year, East Carolina won at home in the rain, 14-7. ... East Carolina, who won the first seven games against Cincinnati, leads the series 9-2. Stars to watch: East Carolina linebackers Jeff Kerr, a junior, and Pernell Griffin, a redshirt freshman, are in the top 10 in tackles in Conference USA. Kerr is considered the best inside linebacker in the conference. ... Cincinnati receiver and former quarterback Chad Plummer is 25th in the country and fourth in Conference USA in receptions, averaging six a game. You may remember Plummer leading Cincinnati to a win in the Humanitarian Bowl last year against Utah State with 179 yards rushing, receiving and passing, and two touchdowns. As a quarterback, Plummer has a strong arm but is erratic and is prone to making bad decisions. Sleepers to watch: East Carolina senior receiver Troy Smith (36 catches for 643 yards) is 21st in the country in punt returns, averaging 12.27 a return. ... Cincinnati quarterback Deontey Kenner, a sophomore, is 110 of 204 for 1,534 yards and five touchdowns. Kenner, who threw for 348 yards against Syracuse earlier in the year, will throw interceptions. What to watch: A lot of scoring, especially by East Carolina. Cincinnati has the worst scoring defense not only in the conference but in the nation, allowing 47.80 points a game. The lowest amount allowed by Cincinnati in any one game this year is 37 points to Army. ... See if the Bearcats can get more scoring. Cincinnati has the worst scoring offense in the conference and 95th in the nation, getting only 17.90 points a game. ... Can Cincinnati hold on to the ball. Cincinnati is next-to-last in Conference USA in turnover margin with minus-18, while East Carolina is next-to-first at plus-three. ... Can East Carolina redshirt freshman David Garrard continue to play well at quarterback? He was 18 of 33 for 275 yards against Houston last week and almost led the Pirates to a win. Prediction: I can't believe that I am picking this game. Why? Why? Why? I know that Cincinnati is home, but how can you pick a team with the worst defense in Division I-A? I'll take East Carolina on the road. East Carolina 41, Cincinnati 24.
No.
9 Penn State (3-1 Big 10, 6-1 overall) at No. 22 Michigan (5-0,
6-2) Notes: Visitor is 4-1 straight up and against the spread in the last five meetings. ... Since 1993, Michigan is 7-15 against the spread at home vs. the Big 10. ... Michigan is 10-4-1 as an underdog since 1985. ... The last time Michigan was a home dog, it beat Ohio State, 31-23, as a nine-point underdog in 1995. Before that, Penn State won in Ann Arbor as a one-point favorite in 1994, 31-24. ... Michigan's next three opponents - Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State - have a combined 22-1 record as of this week. ... Over the past 18 games, Penn State is 11-7 against the spread away on grass. ... Michigan is 12-2-1 against teams in the AP Top 10 since 1992. ... While Michigan won last year, 34-8, Penn State holds a three games to two lead in the series. Penn State is the only Big Ten school with a winning record against the Wolverines. Stars to watch: Penn State inside linebacker Brandon Short, a junior, is the latest star pupil at Linebacker U. Short leads one of the best defenses in the nation in tackles with 54, including eight last week in a 27-0 shutout of Illinois. ... Michigan linebacker Sam Sword, a senior, is leading the Wolverines in tackles for the third consecutive season. Sword was a first-team All-Big Ten selection last year after making 91 tackles, 12 for losses. Sleepers to watch: Penn State quarterback Kevin Thompson (87 of 151 for 1,236 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions) has played well as the season has progressed. Last week, against Illinois, he went 19 of 26 passes for 269 yards. A successful passing game will prevent defenses from loading up against the run. ... Michigan receiver Tai Streets (38 catches for 609 yards and a team-leading seven touchdowns) caught last week against Minnesota six passes for 192 yards, five short of the school record, and a touchdown. What to watch: Can Michigan run the ball? Last week, the Wolverines rushed for minus-23 yards against Minnesota. The previous low in the 1990s was 33 yards in a 17-7 loss at Michigan State in 1993. Penn State is third in the Big 10 and eighth in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 89 yards a game. ... Can Michigan score? They are averaging just 16 points in their past five games. Penn State is third in the Big 10 and fifth in the nation in scoring defense, surrendering 11.4 points a game. ... Can Penn State score? Michigan's defense allowed only one touchdown in four October games. ... Will Michigan standout strong safety Marcus Ray play? He is eligible to return this week after serving a six-game suspension for dealing with an agent. Ray has been practicing with the team, but it has not yet been determined as to what his playing time will be. Prediction: I'm having a tough time going against Michigan at home, getting three points. Something about the Big House and its 100,000-and-change fans. I know Penn State won there as a favorite in 1994, but this team isn't nearly as talented. Michigan will run the ball better this week, it can't get any worse, and will cover. Penn State 13, Michigan 11. Back
to the list No.
12 Virginia (5-1 ACC, 7-1 overall) at No. 6 Florida State (5-1,
7-1) Notes: With Nebraska's loss last week, Florida State now has the nation's longest home-winning streak at 38 games. ... Florida State is 4-2 against the spread vs. Virginia since the Cavaliers joined the ACC. ... Since losing the second game of the season to North Carolina State, the Seminoles have won seven straight, allowing no more than 14 points and scoring at least 24 in every game. ... Virginia is one of eight teams to average at least 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing per game. ... Virginia is 2-6 against the spread in the game before North Carolina since 1989. ... Florida State leads the series, 5-1, after winning last year's game 47-21. Stars to watch: Virginia running back Thomas Jones (169 carries for 1,002 yards, or 5.9 yards a carry, and 11 touchdowns) has had four-straight 100-yard rushing games. No other ACC rusher has more than 700 yards, and three ACC teams have not rushed for 1,000 yards. As a matter of fact, the next closest ACC rusher to Jones is teammate Antwoine Womack (97 carries for 671 yards, or 6.9 yards per carry, and four touchdowns). Jones - a 5-10, 199-pound junior - is ninth in the nation in rushing, averaging 125.25 yards a game. ... Peter Warrick (47 catches for 980 yards, or 20.9 yards per reception, and 10 touchdowns) is 10th in the nation, averaging 108.89 receiving yards per game. Warrick also has carried 10 times for 61 yards, with a rushing touchdown. Last week, the 6-foot, 190-pound junior had three catches for 125 yards and a touchdown - after not starting the game. Warrick was demoted after he failed to get permission to miss Thursday's practice. The receiver had to go home and take care of his infant daughter, but he did not ask FSU coaches if he could leave. Warrick was allowed to play beginning in the second quarter. Sleepers to watch: Virginia defensive end Patrick Kerney, a senior, is among the leaders on the Cavaliers in sacks, tackles and tackles for loss. Against North Carolina State two weeks ago, he made 12 tackles, four for a loss and two sacks. ... Florida State kicker Sebastian Janikowski (22 field goals out of 26 attempts and 31 points after touchdowns) is the nation's leading field goal kicker, averaging 2.44 field goals a game. Last week, he hit four field goals. Janikowski, a 6-foot, 255-pound former soccer player known as the "Polish Powder Keg," leads the ACC in scoring with 97 points. What to watch: Virginia's rushing offense, which is ranked first in the ACC and seventh in the nation, against Florida State's rushing defense, which is first in the ACC and ninth in the nation. Virginia averages 240.30 rushing yards a game, while Florida St allows on average 91.10 yards per game on the ground. ... Virginia's defensive backfield, which is ailing since All-American safety Anthony Poindexter tore a ligament in his left knee. Virginia surrendered 384 passing yards to Wake Forest last week but did have two interceptions, each leading to scores. ... See how Florida State, more of a finesse team, handles Virginia's physical style, especially at the line of scrimmage. ... Chris Weinke (137 of 270 for 2,344 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions) threw all six of his interceptions in the North Carolina State game but has since thrown a school-record 202 consecutive passes without getting picked off. A reportedly drunk Weinke had a run-in with the law earlier this week, although it is not expected to affect his status with the team. Prediction: Virginia, who I think matches up well against Florida State, should have some success running the ball against the Seminoles. Plus, the Cavaliers' physical defense can slow down Florida State's offense and get some pressure on Weinke. While I'm not predicting an upset, I think 17 points is pretty generous - although I would like the pick more if Virginia had Poindexter. Oh well. Florida State 29, Virginia 17. Back
to the list
No. 13 Notre Dame (-11 1/2) at Boston College - Noon, CBS - Another Holy War is going to break out in Chestnut Hill, Mass., when the only two Catholic Division I-A football teams meet. Notre Dame has won most of the battles, leading the series 7-2 and winning the last three meetings, but it will be Boston College's 1993 upset that everyone - especially CBS - will be remembering. In that game, David Gordon hit a 41-yard field goal as time expired, knocking off top-ranked Notre Dame and winning the game 41-39. This year's Boston College (3-5) squad is a lot different than the 1993 team and a lot less talented; however, the Eagles do have the fourth-best rusher in the country in Mike Cloud, who averages 153.38 yards per game. Notre Dame is susceptible to the run, allowing on average 139.4 yards per game. Notre Dame (6-1) has won five straight since losing by 22 points to Michigan State on Sept. 12, while Boston College has lost five straight since beating Temple on Sept. 19. I see both streaks continuing, although after a closer game than most expect. Notre Dame 28, Boston College 24. No. 25 Air Force (-12) at Army - Noon, Fox Sports Net - QUICK QUIZ: Who is the only college football team to score at least 30 points in every game this season? That's right, it's Air Force (7-1), who is fourth in scoring offense, averaging 42 points a game. A large reason for the Falcons success is that they run the best wishbone offense in country. Actually, they have the best rushing offense in the country, leading the nation with an average of 296.8 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Blane Morgan (96 carries for 421 yards, or 4.4 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns) and tailback Qualario Brown (70 carries for 454 yards, or 6.5 yards per carry, and one touchdown) pace the Falcons running game. Morgan's 13 rushing touchdowns - he's also thrown for six more - places him fifth in the nation in scoring. Army (2-5), which also employs the wishbone, is third in the country in rushing offense, averaging 274 rushing yards per game. The difference between the two squads is Air Force's rushing defense is 16th in the country, allowing 104.9 yards per game, while Army's is 56th, giving up 150.3 yards a game. An Air Force victory would give the Falcons their 12th Commander-in-Chief's Trophy title in 27 years. The Commander-in-Chief's Trophy goes to winner of a three-way contest between Air Force, Army and Navy. Air Force blasted Navy, 49-7, last month. Last year, Air Force won 24-0 at home; however, the last time the two academies met in West Point, N.Y., Army won 23-7 in 1996. As a matter of fact, the home team in this series is 13-1-1 against the spread in the last 15 meetings. I like Army to cover, despite the fact that Air Force has held Army to an average of 7.1 points per game over the past nine years. Air Force 24, Army 17.
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to the list Minnesota at No. 8 Wisconsin (-18 1/2) - Noon, ESPN - Two schools who have faced each more often than any other two schools in Division I-A meet again to fight for the Paul Bunyan Axe. Minnesota and Wisconsin have played each other 107 times, with the Golden Gophers leading the series, 57-42-8. Wisconsin (5-0 Big Ten, 8-0 overall) has won everything but respect this year. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, after beating their previous two opponents by a combined score of 68-3; however, Wisconsin has played only one team this season that is currently over the .500 mark - Purdue, who is only 5-4. Minnesota (1-4, 4-4) has garnered some respect for itself in the past two weeks, by losing to Michigan by only five points and by beating Michigan State. Wisconsin has won three straight over the Golden Gophers, including last season's 22-21 win in Minneapolis behind 183 rushing yards from Ron Dayne. It will be interesting to see if Dayne (194 carries for 998 yards, or 5.1 yards per carry, and 10 touchdowns), who has rushed for at least 127 yards in five straight games, can match that feat at home against the nation's seventh-best rushing defense, which allows on average 85.8 rushing yards a game. My guess is that he will have limited success against Minnesota, who will keep it close enough to cover. Wisconsin 23, Minnesota 13. Colorado at No. 18 Missouri (-6 1/2) - 12:30 pm, Big 12 TV - Missouri (4-1 Big 12, 6-2 overall), whose only two losses are on the road at Ohio State and Nebraska, hosts Colorado (3-2 Big 12, 6-2 overall), who is trying the recapture its early season magic, in a big Big 12 Conference North Division game. Missouri, of course, is led by Devin West (213 carries for 1,256 yards, or 5.9 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns), who is third in the nation averaging 157 yards per game. Last week, West went for 133 yards and three touchdowns in a 28-26 win over Texas Tech. Colorado, who has been hit with injuries this year, is very average against the run. The Buffaloes have the 48th-ranked rushing defense in the nation, allowing 140.1 yards per game. In their last game, a 33-17 loss to Kansas on Oct. 24, Colorado let Jayhawk running back David Winbush go for 268 yards and three touchdowns. West averages over a yard more each carry than Winbush (5.9 to 4.63) and has rushed for more than 500 more yards this season (1,256 to 745). The Buffaloes also are having their problems at running back, where senior Marlon Barnes (57 carries for 233 yards, or 4.1 yards per carry, and one touchdown) has missed four games because of a ankle/foot injury. Barnes may not start Saturday. And with junior Dwayne Cherrington (96 carries for 313 yards, or 3.3 yards per carry, and two touchdowns) already nursing ankle and groin injuries, it appears either redshirt freshman Cortlen Johnson (31 carries for 141 yards, or 4.5 yards per carry) or sophomore Damion Barton (41 carries for 121 yards, or 3 yards per carry) will start at tailback. Missouri has won 10 of its last 13 regular-season games. And in its three losses, the Tigers have led at halftime. I don't see a loss here, as Missouri stays a game behind Kansas State. Missouri 28, Colorado 10. Back
to the list Mississippi at No. 11 Arkansas (-9 1/2) - 12:30 pm, Jefferson Pilot - Arkansas (4-0 SEC, 7-0 overall) returns home for the first time in more than a month when it hosts Mississippi (3-2, 6-2) on Saturday. Actually, this game is sandwiched between five road games. The Razorbacks, the only undefeated team in the SEC West Division, have built their perfect record against teams with a combined 19-39 record. They close the regular season against four teams - Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Mississippi State and LSU - that are a combined 22-8. As Alex Trebek always says, things can change quickly in the second round. Arkansas and Mississippi are similar teams in that both use a strong running game to set up the passing game. The Razorbacks rely on Madre Hill (105 carries, 482 yards, 4.6 yards per carry and five touchdowns) and Chrys Chukwuma (76 carries, 477 yards, 6.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns), while Mississippi has Deuce Mcallister (133 carries, 733 yards, 5.5 yards per carry and seven touchdowns) and Joe Gunn (117 carries, 529 yards, 4.5 yards per carry and six touchdowns). Arkansas has a slightly better rushing defense, allowing 82.4 yards per game, good for second in the SEC, while Mississippi's rushing defense surrenders 114.5 yards per game, which puts them fourth in the SEC. One Sideline Note: Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville reportedly was one of the leading candidates for the Arkansas job after last season. As a matter of fact, he says he turned down the job. Arkansas denies that, saying it only offered the position to its current coach, Houston Nutt. Hmm. I think these are two similar teams on both sides of the ball, which I think gives Ole Miss a chance to upset. I don't think Ole Miss will win, but I say they cover. Arkansas 20, Mississippi 14. [Note: Arkansas will be featured this week on CNN's College Football Preview at 11:30 a.m. Saturday.] No. 15 Tulane (-17) at Memphis - 1 pm - Tulane (4-0 Conference USA, 7-0 overall) is the lowest ranked of the seven unbeaten teams left in Division I-A - No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Tennessee, No. 3 UCLA, No. 4 Kansas State, No. 8 Wisconsin and No. 11 Arkansas. Tulane should also be double-digit favorites in its last three games after this, allowing them to beat up on teams like the Green Wave have done the past two weeks, crushing Rutgers and Southwestern Louisiana by a combined score of 124-44. Memphis (1-2; 2-6) has won two of its last three, after beginning the season with five straight losses. The Tigers, who have covered in their last four games this season, are 7-0-2 against the spread in the past nine game of this series. Memphis' defense, though, is ranked 98th in the nation, allowing 430.1 yards per game. Two weeks ago, the Tigers surrendered 613 yards to Louisville in a 35-32 loss. Grant it, Louisville leads the nation in total offense, but Tulane is sixth, averaging 483 yards per game. However, for some reason, I have a feeling that Memphis is going to play Tulane tough. I'll take the 17 points, close my eyes and hope. Tulane 38, Memphis 23. Back
to the list No. 14 Nebraska (25 1/2) at Iowa State - 2 pm - With its national title hopes gone, Nebraska (3-2 Big 12, 7-2 overall) must be content with playing the spoiler. But that's the storyline for next week's game at Kansas State. This week, the Cornhuskers just have to show up against Iowa State (0-5, 2-6). Iowa State has won just once against Nebraska in the past 20 meetings, a 19-10 upset in 1992. Since that loss, Nebraska has won five straight against Iowa State by an average of 43 points. Last year, Nebraska rushed for 473 yards in a 77-14 thriller. Nebraska, who was knocked out of AP's Top 10 for the first time after 96 straight polls, leads the all-time series, 80-21-3. It doesn't look to get any better this year. Iowa State is 97th in the nation against the run, allowing almost 207 yards per game. Nebraska averages 260 rushing yards a game, good for fifth in the country. I'm sure Nebraska wins easily, I just don't think the Huskers will cover. Nebraska 31, Iowa State 7. No. 5 Florida (-29) at Vanderbilt - 2 pm - Last week, Florida (5-1 SEC, 7-1 overall) played like the old Gators - threw the ball well, made big plays on offense and ran the score up with a meaningless touchdown on an end-around with 38 seconds left. Ah, it's good to have the ol' boys back. However, even the old Gators couldn't dominate Vanderbilt (1-4, 2-6), the SEC's weak sister. Although it hasn't beaten Florida in seven meetings, Vanderbilt has covered in its last four games against the Gators (albeit with the average line being 36 points). In Florida's last eight visits to Nashville, Tenn., the Gators are only 4-3-1. Part of the reason may be the artificial turf at Vanderbilt Stadium. It will be the first time Florida has played on the fake stuff since the 1997 Sugar Bowl, a 52-20 victory over Florida State that gave the Gators the national championship. Since 1990, the Gators are 10-6 on the carpet, although they have won eight of their last nine such games. A
couple other interesting trends: Vanderbilt is 9-3 against the
spread as double-digit home underdogs, and the Commodores are
10-3 against the spread in November since 1994. Vanderbilt, who
has won two in a row, last beat a ranked opponent in 1988, when
it defeated Florida 24-9. If the game somehow is close, Vanderbilt would be familiar with the pressure. Three of its last five contests have gone down to the final play, while another was decided in the final minute. A Florida win gives the Gators six conference wins, which they have accomplished every season in the 1990s. Before Florida's run, the previous best such streak was six straight by Alabama from 1961-66. A Gator win also improves Spurrier's record to 91-17 at Florida, breaking Barry Switzer's record for most wins by a major college coach during this century in his first nine seasons at a school. Switzer won 90 games for Oklahoma from 1973-81. Florida, coming off its best performance of the year against archrival Georgia, could be in for a letdown. Although it is also entirely possible that Spurrier, sniffing a chance at a possible national championship, could have his boys firing all their shots. I'm guessing it's going to be a little bit of both. Florida 35, Vanderbilt 14. Back
to the list No. 4 Kansas State (-28 1/2) at Baylor - 2 pm - What did Baylor (1-4 Big 12, 2-6 overall) do to upset the schedule maker? The Bears conclude a hellish four-week span by playing Kansas State, possibly the most dominating team in the nation. The stretch started with a 35-14 loss to Texas A&M, continued with a 30-20 defeat to Ricky Williams and Texas, and rolled along with a 27-3 defeat to Notre Dame. Baylor has played only two teams - Oregon State and Kansas - that have not been ranked at some point this season. And now here comes Kansas State (5-0, 8-0), who has the nation's second-longest current winning streak at 16 games. The Wildcats have played only one close game this year, a 16-9 win at Colorado, which was the only game that Kansas State scored less than 48 points. Other than that, Kansas State has outscored its opponents by an average score of 58-8. As a matter of fact, the Wildcats are No. 1 in scoring offense (52.8) and scoring defense (7.9). It is Baylor's homecoming game this week. ... Kansas State could be looking ahead to Nebraska next week. ... I can learn how to fly. Kansas State sends a message to Nebraska and the voters. Kansas State 54, Baylor 10. Michigan State at No. 1 Ohio State (-27) - 3:30 pm, ABC - Ranked No. 1 in the Bowl Championship Series, Ohio State (5-0 Big Ten, 8-0 overall) looks to establish a strong foothold on the position against Michigan State (2-2, 4-4), who is playing only its second game on grass this season. Ohio State has won five straight in this series and 13 of the last 15 games since 1975. The Buckeyes haven't been threatened all year, and I don't see it happening here. Michigan State has been inconsistent at best. One week, they can beat Notre Dame by 22 points; the next, lose to Minnesota by one. And the Spartans have all the backbone of a jellyfish. It is real easy to see them folding like a plastic chair under Dom Deluise. Ohio State is just way too talented and romps again. Ohio State 48, Michigan State 10. Back
to the list Oklahoma State at No. 20 Texas (-11) - 3:30 pm, ABC - "Mr. Williams, please pick up your Heisman. You left it on the Astroturf at Memorial Stadium last week against Nebraska." Ricky Williams last week ran for 150 yards on 37 carries, helping Texas give Nebraska its first home loss since September 1991. With the win, Texas (4-1 Big 12, 6-2 overall) remains one game behind Texas A&M for the South Division lead. Meanwhile, Willams (264 carries, 1,634 yards, or 6.2 yards per carry, and 24 touchdowns) remains 294 yards away from breaking Tony Dorsett's all-time NCAA Division I-A rushing record. And don't think he can't get it this game. He has already broken the 300-yard mark against Rice and Iowa State this season and added 259 yards against Baylor. However, Oklahoma State (2-4, 3-5) does have a decent run defense, allowing 139.60 yards per game on the ground, good enough for sixth in the Big 12. The best defense, though, for Oklahoma State may be a ball-control offense. Thanks to the wishbone, the Cowboys have a solid three-man running attack led by Nathan Simmons (142 carries for 614 yards, or 4.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns), Tony Lindsay (105 carries for 355 yards, or 3.4 yards per carry, and six touchdowns) and Jamaal Fobbs (72 carries for 334 yards, or 4.6 yards per carry, and four touchdowns). Combined, the three Sooners have rushed for 1,303 yards and 12 touchdowns on 319 carries, an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Williams, as I have said, has 1,634 yards and 24 touchdowns on 264 carries for an average rush of 6.2 yards. Wow! Oklahoma State hasn't had much success in Austin, Texas, with a 1-6 all-time record there. However, the Cowboys have played well on the road this year, and I like them to cover and hold Williams to under 200 yards. Texas 20, Oklahoma State 13. Washington at No. 21 Oregon (-6 1/2) - 3:30 pm, ABC - These two teams, who were both talking Rose Bowl at certain points this season, lost last week by a combined score of 71-13. Oregon (3-2 Pac 10; 6-2 overall) has not been the same team since the 41-38 overtime loss to UCLA, in which it lost running back Reuben Droughns. Last week, with no support from the running game, quarterback Akili Smith had his worst game of the year, throwing for just 168 yards in the loss to Arizona. Meanwhile, Washington (3-2, 5-3) has been quite average since Nebraska beat them up real good - 55-7 - in the third game of the year. Part of the Huskies problems is their passing defense, which is eighth in the Pac-10, allowing 255.6 yards a game in the air. The Huskies start two freshman and a sophomore in their defensive backfield. Oregon has won three of the last four meetings in this series, although Washington has won six of the last nine. The visitor is 5-2 against the spread in this series over the past seven games. I'll take Oregon to win, and Washington to cover. Oregon 31, Washington 27. Back
to the list Alabama-Birmingham at No. 2 Tennessee (-42) - 4 pm - Tennesse, who is 7-0 for the first time since 1969, will try to start a season with eight straight wins for the first time since 1956, when the team finished 10-0. A win over Alabama-Birmingham (2-6) would give the Volunteers eight wins for the 10th straight season. No other SEC team can say that. Last week, Tennessee quarterback Tee Martin completed an NCAA-record 23 straight passes in a 49-14 win over South Carolina. His only incompletion was on his last throw, finishing that game 23-of-24 for 315 yards and four touchdowns. Imagine what he may do against UAB's 80th-ranked passing defense at home on homecoming. No. 3 UCLA (-16 1/2) at Oregon State - 6:30 pm, Fox Sports Net - UCLA's (5-0 Pac 10, 7-0 overall) near blunder against Stanford cost the school a couple places in the polls and in the Bowl Championship. However, if the Bruins continue their 17 straight-game winning streak - the nation's longest such streak - for the rest of the regular season, UCLA should be in the Fiesta Bowl. It's that simple. Just win, baby. But while UCLA will be favorite in all of its remaining games (at Oregon State, at Washington, home against USC and at Miami), none of them will be easy. But don't be fooled by Oregon State's record (1-5, 4-5) because they have lost its last two games by one point each. The Beavers lost 35-34 at Washington two weeks ago and 20-19 at home to California last week. Oregon State needs a win to have its first five-win season since 1971. The Beavers haven't had a winning season since 1970, the longest such streak in Division I-A. So the game matches the team with longest current winning streak vs. the team with the longest current streak of losing seasons. This is UCLA's first game on artificial turf this year, and the Bruins are just 1-7 against the spread on it over the past five years. Oregon State is 5-2 against the spread in this series in the past seven games. Still, though, I think UCLA is going to come out and try to re-establish itself as the leader of the BCS. Stanford probably stole Oregon State's chance of an upset last week. UCLA 38, Oregon State 17. Back
to the list Oklahoma at No. 7 Texas A&M (-18 1/2) - 7 pm, FX - The good news for Oklahoma (1-4 Big 12, 3-5 overall) is that the Sooners ended a five-game winning streak last week against Iowa State. The bad news is that the win is probably the school's last one this year and John Blake's final one as coach of Oklahoma. Oklahoma does have a lot of talent. Running back De'mond Parker (157 carries for 846 yards, or 5.4 yards per carry, and three touchdowns) is 22nd in the nation, averaging 105.88 yards per game. And the Sooner defense is eighth in the country, allowing only 272 yards a game. This week, though, the Sooners will be facing a defense that statistically is better than they are. Texas A&M (5-0, 8-1*) is sixth in the nation in total defense, giving up just 260.3 yards per game, and seventh in scoring defense, allowing 13 points a game. And it has allowed only three runs of more than 20 yards this season. The "Wrecking Crew" defense is led by All-American linebacker Dat Nguyen, who leads the team in tackles for the third straight year with 91. The defense will be psyched to face an offense that will probably be starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback, Jake Stills. Because of injuries and ineffectiveness, Oklahoma has played five different quarterbacks this season, all with at least 12 passes thrown, and have started four different ones. Texas A&M is coming into the game banged up. Shoulder injuries forced starting quarterback Randy McCown and starting tailback Dante Hall out of last week's win over Oklahoma State. Hall's backup, Sirr Parker, also is trying to mend a nagging hamstring problem. Hall is expected to play Saturday, although Parker is doubtful and Branndon Stewart may start at quarterback for McCown. While I don't see the injuries keeping the Aggies from winning, I do see them keeping Texas A&M from covering. Texas A&M 23, Oklahoma 7. [*Texas A&M is 8-1, excluding a forfeit to Louisiana Tech for using an ineligible player. Including the forfeit, Texas A&M is 7-2.] No. 15 Syracuse (-2 1/2) at West Virginia - 7:30 pm, ESPN - Syracuse (3-0 Big East, 5-2 overall) has won three straight games, averaging exactly 50 points per game during the winning streak; however, its defense has allowed nearly 25 points a game during those games - and Cincinnati, Boston College and Pittsburgh aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. West Virginia (1-2, 4-3), meanwhile, has played itself out of a Big East championship with back-to-back losses to Miami, Fla., and Virginia Tech. The Mountaineers biggest problem has been its defense, which allows more yards per game on the ground (210.7) than it does in the air (177.8). More importantly, the defense just hasn't made the big play when it needed to all season. The Orangemen are clearly the hotter team and have dominated the recent series between the teams, winning the last three by a combined score of 92-17. And the favorite in this series is 8-1-1 against the spread in the last 10 games. So why am I so uncomfortable with Syracuse? I don't know. My head says Syracuse, but my gut says West Virginia. Of course, my gut has been doing a lot of talking recently since eating my mother's wonderful bean soup. I'll take Syracuse and another bowl of soup, Mom. Syracuse 34, West Virginia 31. Back
to the list Washington State at No. 10 Arizona (-23 1/2) - 9 pm - After last week's impressive 38-3 victory over then-No. 13 Oregon, Arizona (4-1 Pac 10, 8-1 overall) now appears to be the Pac-10 favorite for the Rose Bowl (that is, if UCLA makes it to the Fiesta Bowl). Arizona is second place in the Pac 10, a loss behind UCLA and a loss up on USC. The Wildcats' final three games - vs. Washington State, at California and vs. Arizona State - are against teams with a combined 12-12 record. Arizona should be able to use its well-balanced offense to handle Washington State (0-5, 3-5), which is 78th in the nation in total defense, allowing 386.13 yards a game. The Wildcats offense averages 425.44 yards per game, fourth-best in the Pac-10 and 24th in the nation. STAT OF THE WEEK: The Wildcats are 7-0 against the spread this year as a favorite, while Washington State is 0-6 against the spread vs. non-Big West teams. Arizona ain't in the Big West. It's going to be a sweet Homecoming for Arizona. Arizona 44, Washington 10. Back
to the list The Associated Press, SportsTicker, The Sporting News College Football yearbook, Preview Sports College Football preview, Phil Steele's 1998 College Football Preview, Sportsform and Petersen's Bob Griese's College Football contributed information for this article. |
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