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Giving
Thanks Thanksgiving was not good to me. I ate too much, spent too much time in the car and returned to my losing ways, going 5-7 for my first losing week in three weeks. My record for the year remains below .500 at 103-111-2. As Chandler said on "Friends" a couple weeks ago, "I hate Thanksgiving." (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through the Guru's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) Now, though, Thanksgiving is over, as is the regular season for most college football teams - but not all. Army and Navy still have to play their annual war, while No. 3 UCLA and Miami have to make up their rescheduled game from earlier in the year. The Bruins need a win to keep their hopes alive for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. Actually, all three teams vying for a spot in the national championship game play Saturday as No. 1 Tennessee battles No. 23 Mississippi State in the SEC Championship in Atlanta, and No. 2 Kansas State faces Texas A&M in the Big 12 Championship in St. Louis. Currently, Tennessee and UCLA have the all-important top two spots in the Bowl Championship Series standings with Kansas State standing at the window, looking in wistfully. The Wildcats need a win over Texas A&M and a loss by either Tennessee or UCLA to earn a trip to Arizona. An ugly win by either Tennessee or UCLA may be enough for Kansas State to switch positions, although that is not likely. Also, don't forget the other two conference championships this week - Toledo at Marshall in the MAC and No. 17 Air Force vs. BYU in the WAC. Below are my picks and previews of all the games this weekend. Remember, the picks are for amusement purposes only. (Generally, your amusement over how inept I am at picking the games.) Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
Toledo
(6-2 MAC, 7-4 overall) at Marshall (7-1, 10-1) Notes: This is the second time in as many seasons that Marshall and Toledo will meet in the Mid-American Conference championship game. Last year, Marshall won 34-14 thanks to a certain receiver named Randy Moss, who snagged four touchdown passes in the snow. ... The winner of this game will play Louisville in the Motor City Bowl at the Silverdome in Pontiac, Mich. ... Surprising Stat of the Week: Marshall has won 99 games this decade - the most by any team in Division I or I-AA. ... Marshall, which won Division I-AA national titles in 1992 and 1996, has had at least 10 wins in eight consecutive seasons and will be playing in the postseason for the eighth consecutive campaign. ... A Toledo win means the Rockets would be attending their second bowl game of the decade - Toledo beat Nevada, 40-37, in the 1995 Las Vegas Bowl - but just their second since 1984. Stars to watch: This game features two quarterbacks that have put up some nice numbers this year. ... Toledo quarterback Chris Wallace, a senior, (189 of 346, or 54.6%, for 2,139 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions) has not thrown an interception in 28 quarters and 228 straight passes. ... Marshall quarterback Chad Pennington (256 of 394, or 65%, for 3,180 yards, 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions) is 13th in the nation in passing efficiency with a 148.3 rating. Pennington is only a junior but has 80 career touchdown passes and holds five school records, four conference marks and two Division I-A standards, including most touchdown passes in a season by a sophomore (39). Sleepers to watch: Toledo's backfield features Wasean Tait (134 carries for 562 yards, or 4.2 yards per carry) and Chester Taylor (92 carries for 540 yards, or 5.9 yards per carry, and five touchdowns), who have combined for more than 1,000 yards. ... While none of them is as talented as Moss, Marshall receivers Lavorn Colclough (48 catches for 535 yards and six touchdonws), Nate Poole (43 catches for 555 yards and two touchdowns), Jerrald Long (40 catches for 536 yards and four touchdowns) have all caught at least 40 passes for more than 500 yards. What to watch: See which can play better defense against two explosive offenses. The early favorite is Marshall, which ranks 19th in the country in total defense, allowing 307.6 yards a game. Linebacker John Grace leads the Thundering Herd defense with 127 tackles, 28 more than anyone else on the team. Meanwhile, Toledo is 53rd in the country in total defense, surrendering 357.6 yards a game. This game should come down to which team can perform better on defense. ... Toledo's rushing defense is 70th in the nation, giving up 166.5 yards a game. That's good news for Marshall running back Doug Chapman (229 carries for 1,078 yards, or 4.7 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns), who averages 98 yards a game. Prediction: It's another year and another MAC championship for these two teams and I see similar results. Marshall is just a step above everyone else in the MAC, and Toledo is no different. Marshall 31, Toledo 17. Back
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Army
(2-8) vs. Navy (3-7) Notes: Army is 3-6 against the spread but has won seven of the last 10 straight-up. ... The team trying to avenge a defeat from the previous year (in this case, it is Army because Navy won last year, 39-7.) is 11-5 against the spread in this series since 1981. ... Favorite is just 3-7 against the spread in this series. ... Navy is 2-7 against the spread this year, while Army is 6-4. ... Before last year's blowout by Navy, the previous five games were decided by a total of 10 points. ... Both teams enter the game with losing streaks. Army has lost five straight, while Navy has lost three consecutive games. ... This is the 99th meeting and the 74th in the great city of Philadelphia. ... Navy won the first meeting in 1890, 24-0. ... Army leads the all-time series, 47-44-7. Stars to watch: Army running back Bobby Williams (116 carries for 746 yards, or 6.4 yards per carry, and six touchdowns) and quarterback Johnny Goff (122 carries for 569 yards, or 4.7 yards per carry, and two touchdowns), both seniors, head the Army rushing attack, ranked first in the nation, averaging 283.1 yards per game. ... Navy quarterback Brian Broadwater, a sophomore, (147 carries for 622 yards, or 4.2 yards per carry, and five touchdowns) and Irv Dingle, a senior, (128 carries for 603 yards, or 4.7 yards per carry, and five touchdowns) lead the Midshipmen rushing attack, which is ranked fifth in the nation, averaging 264.9 yards a game. Sleepers to watch: Army linebacker Lyle Weaver, a sophomore, leads the team with 108 tackles, of which 71 were solos and 15 were for a loss. In Army's last victory, a 38-28 win over Houston on Oct. 10, Weaver received Conference USA Defensive Player of the Week honors for his 16 tackles (seven for a loss) and three sacks. ... Navy safety Jamie Doffermyer, a junior, had 19 tackles in Navy's last game, a 24-11 loss to SMU. What to watch: As usual, a lot of running. Neither team throws the ball much. Navy has attempted only 144 passes, while Army has thrown 128. That means Kentucky quarterback Tim Couch (553) and Louisiana Tech quarterback Tim Rattay (559) each have thrown twice as many passes as Army and Navy, combined, have attempted. ... While both teams can run well, neither can stop it. Army is 75th in the country in run defense, allowing 169.8 yards a game, while Navy is a dreadful 97th, surrendering 198.2 yards a game. ... Army has a slight edge in turnover margin at minus-4, good for 79th in the country, while Navy is tied for 103rd at minus-10. Prediction: It's been a tough year for Navy, who returned only one defensive starter this year. I think the Midshipmen's troubles continue as Army avenges last year's blowout with one of its own. Army 27, Navy 13. Back
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17 Air Force (7-1 WAC, 10-1 overall) vs. BYU (7-1, 9-3) Notes: Air Force is 9-2 against the spread this season, while BYU is 6-4-1, although the Cougars have covered in five of their last six games. ... The game is played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. ... Air Force's Mountain Division title is the first outright football title in school history. ... The is the first-ever trip to the WAC Championship game for Air Force, while BYU is appearing for the second time in the contest's three-year history. .... BYU is in search of its 20th WAC title, while Air Force is looking for its third. ... These two members are part of the eight WAC schools breaking away to form the Mountain West Conference ... Brigham Young coach LaVell Edwards is the all-time leader in WAC wins with a 166-37-3 (.814) conference record. Air Force coach Fisher DeBerry is second in WAC wins at 74-41-1 (.642). ... After this game, Air Force will play in the Hawaii bowl doubleheader on Christmas Day, while Brigham Young will meet unbeaten Tulane in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., on New Year's Eve. ... Brigham Young has dominated the all-time series with Air Force by a 16-2 margin; however, Air Force won the last meeting, 38-12, in 1995. Stars to watch: BYU running back Ronney Jenkins, a sophomore, (227 carries for 1,216 yards, or 5.4 yards per carry, and 12 rushing touchdowns.) is third in rushing in the WAC, averaging 101.3 yards per game. Jenkins, a second cousin to Shante Carver of the Dallas Cowboys, also is dangerous as a receiver with 34 catches for 349 yards and three touchdowns. ... Air Force quarterback Blane Morgan, a senior, (134 carries for 528 yards, or 3.9 yards per carry, and 14 touchdowns) leads the team in rushing but is doubtful for the game Saturday. Morgan re-injured his left ankle against Rice on Nov. 21. If Morgan cannot play, the backup is junior Cale Bonds (56 carries for 344 yards, or 6.1 yards per carry, and three touchdowns). Morgan appears to be a better passer (57 of 105, or 54.3%, for 1,049 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions) than Bonds (19 of 34, or 55.9%, for 318 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.) Sleepers to watch: BYU middle linebacker Rob Morris, a junior, is the defensive player of the year in the WAC's Pacific Division. Morris leads the Cougars with 139 total tackles, including an amazing 108 solo stops. He also has team highs in tackles for losses (22) and sacks (6). ... Air Force defensive tackle Shawn Thomas had seven of the Falcons' 33.5 sacks in 1998. Thomas also had a team-high 13 stops behind the line of scrimmage. What to watch: Air Force's rushing offense vs. BYU's rushing defense. The Falcons are second in the nation in rushing, averaging 280.9 yards a game, while BYU's defense is third in the country, allowing only 89.6 yards a game. ... See if the Cougars can exploit their advantage in throwing the ball. BYU quarterback Kevin Feterik (182 of 294, or 61.9%, for 2,460 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions) is a better passer than either Morgan or Bonds. Feterik ranks first in the WAC and 19th in the country in pass efficiency with a 143.63 rating. ... The Falcons' red-zone offense, which is extremely effective. Air Force has scored on 42-of-45 opportunities inside its opponents' 20-yard line, including 36 touchdowns and six field goals. Prediction: BYU saved its season nicely by winning seven straight games to end this year's campaign, after starting 2-3. While Air Force also ended the season winning seven straight, the Falcons didn't look too impressive in their last two games against Wyoming and Rice. BYU enters the game healthier, more experienced and playing better. It leaves with a win. BYU 24, Air Force 20. Back
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3 UCLA (10-0) at Miami (7-3) Notes: This is only the third meeting between these teams and the first in Miami. UCLA won the first two contests - 31-8 In 1995 and 39-37 in 1984. ... If UCLA wins, the Bruins more than likely will be playing in the national championship game. If they lose, the Bruins would end up in the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champion. ... UCLA possesses the nation's longest winning streak, 20 games. ... UCLA is 10-0 for the first time since 1946 and trying to win 11 games for the first time in school history. ... UCLA coach Bob Toledo this week was named the Pac-10 coach of the year. ... Miami is trying to rebound from an embarrassing 66-13 loss last week to Syracuse. ... Miami is 21-18 against ranked opponents in the 1990s; however, under coach Butch Davis, Miami is only 4-9 against ranked foes. ... Miami, under Davis, is 4-8 against the spread after a straight-up loss, but 2-0 this year. ... Miami is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against Pac-10 teams. ... UCLA is 15-5 against the spread vs. nonconference teams over the past 20 games. ... This game is known as the "Hurricane Bowl" because it was moved from its original date, Sept. 26, due to fears about Hurricane Georges. Stars to watch: Cade McNown, a senior, (162 of 288, or 56.3%, for 2,617 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions) averages 278.2 yards of total offense per game, good for 14th in the country and second in the Pac 10. McNown's pass efficiency rating of 146.2 places him third in the conference and 18th in the country. But more than the numbers, the experts have praised McNown this season for his grit, leadership and ability to make big plays when needed. McNown will receive the 1998 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, given annually to the nation's top senior quarterback. In his four-year career, he has started 41 consecutive games and thrown for a school-record 9,855 yards and 61 touchdowns. ... Miami running back Edgerrin James, a junior, (203 carries for 1,117 yards, or 5.5 yards a carry, and 14 touchdowns) has rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games and six for the season. With 100 yards against UCLA, James would break a tie with Ottis Anderson with his 14th career 100-yard game. James also is tied with Eddie Dunn (1938) for the single-season school record with 14 rushing touchdowns. Sleepers to watch: UCLA outside linebacker Brendan Ayanbadejo, a senior, has 58 tackles this season and leads the team in sacks (9) and tackles behind the line of scrimmage (13). ... Miami quarterback Scott Covington, a senior, (140 of 242 for 1,983 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions) ranks 25th in the country in pass efficiency with a 141.9 rating. What to watch: See if UCLA can blow out Miami. Not only did Syracuse's blowout of Miami last week hurt UCLA in the strength of schedule, but it also may have raised the expectations of voters, who now foresee a dominating UCLA victory. The voters may consider anything less than that uncivilized and unfortunate for the Bruins. ... Who wins the rushing battle. Miami has won 57 straight games in which they have outrushed their opponents. UCLA has a slightly better running game, averaging five more yards a game, but the Hurricanes defense allows nearly 12 yards a game less on the ground. ... Of course, UCLA's defense has been the source of much ridicule the whole year. It ranks 91st in the country in total defense, allowing 406.8 yards a game, and 55th in scoring defense, surrendering 25.3 points per game. ... The key for UCLA is turnovers. The Bruins are second in the country in turnover ratio at plus 1.8 per game. They have 33 takeaways, including an amazing 21 fumble recoveries, and 15 giveaways, including only four fumbles. Last week, Miami turned the ball over five times against Syracuse. ... The other thing the Bruins have going for them is their offense, which averages 40 points a game (fifth in the nation) and 463.9 yards a game (12th in the country). Prediction: There is just too much on the line for UCLA to screw this up, while Miami, who will play North Carolina State in the Micron PC Bowl, has nothing to play for other than pride. And how much pride do the Hurricanes have left after last week's loss to Syracuse? About as much as Linda Tripp. Bruin fans, make your reservations to Arizona. UCLA 35, Miami 14. Back
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2 Kansas St. (8-0 Big 12; 11-0 overall) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
(7-1; 10-2) Notes: Kansas State, despite being No. 1 in the coaches poll and No. 2 in the AP poll, needs a win over Texas A&M and help from either Mississippi State or Miami, Fla., to make it to the national championship game. ... If Kansas State beats Texas A&M but doesn't end up in the Fiesta Bowl, the Wildcats probably would play Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl in what could be the most intriguing bowl game. ... Texas A&M is playing in its second straight Big 12 championship, losing last year to Nebraska 54-15, while Kansas State is making its first appearance in the big game. ... Kansas State is one of four schools in the country to win at least nine games in each of the last six seasons. QUESTION: Who are the other three? See the answer at the bottom of the notes section. ... Kansas State, over the last five years, has a 59-11-1 record, including 35-9-1 in league play. The Wildcats trail only Nebraska for the best record among Big 12 teams over the last five years. ... A Texas A&M win would put the Aggies in a BCS bowl, possibly the Orange Bowl against Syracuse. ... ANSWER: The other three schools to win at least nine games in each of the last six seasons are Ohio State, Florida and Florida State. ... Kansas State leads the all-time series with Texas A&M, 4-3-1. Last year, Kansas State beat Texas A&M, 36-17. The Wildcats defense held the Aggies to minus-35 yards rushing and 90 yards of total offense. . Stars to watch: Kansas State quarterback Michael Bishop (145 of 267, or 54.3%, for 2,503 yards, 21 touchdowns and three interceptions) is eighth in the nation and first in the Big 12 in passing efficiency with a 156.76 pass efficiency rating. The senior also is the team's second-leading rusher, gaining 647 yards and 13 touchdowns on 149 carries. ... Texas A&M linebacker Dat Nguyen, a Butkus Award finalist, leads the team with 132 tackles, including 20 for losses and four sacks. Against Kansas State, Nguyen has been outstanding, averaging 17 tackles a game, including a career-best 20 in 1997. Last week, the senior had 14 tackles against Texas, moving his career total to 502. Sleepers to watch: Kansas State linebacker Jeff Kelly, senior, is tied with fellow linebacker Mark Simoneau for the team lead in tackles with 85 each. Kelly does have a team-high 22 tackles for losses. He also has recorded five sacks, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries. ... Nguyen isn't the only good Aggie linebacker. First-year starter Cornelius Anthony, a sophomore, is second on the team in tackles with 92, including nine for losses and four sacks. And don't forget senior Warrick Holdman, who has 79 tackles, 15 for a loss, seven sacks (the team-high) and eight passes broken up. What to watch: Will Texas A&M, who basically has no passing offense, be able to run against Kansas State? The Wildcats are seventh in the nation in run defense, yielding 95.5 yards a game. Texas A&M's running game, led by Dante Hall (216 carries for 911 yards, or 4.2 yards per carry, and eight touchdowns), averages 154.8 yards a game. The Aggies need to run to keep the ball away from Bishop and the explosive Wildcat offense. Plus, everyone saw last week that the Aggies have no offense when they can't move the ball on the ground. ... Will Kansas State's defense make a statement against a lackluster Texas A&M offense? Questions are being asked about the unit, which has allowed 55 points over the last two games after surrendering only 69 points in its first nine games. ... Who will run the ball for the Wildcats? Kansas State could be down to its third running back because Eric Hickson (153 carries for 847 yards, or 5.5 yards a carry, and nine touchdowns), the school's all-time leading rusher, and Marlon Charles (59 carries for 342 yards, or 5.8 yards per carry, and five touchdowns) are nursing injuries. If that's the case, speedy Frank Murphy (54 carries for 253 yards, or 4.7 yards per carry, or four touchdowns) will get the call. ... No matter who carries the pigskin, can Texas A&M stop him? The Aggies could not stop Texas' Ricky Williams, who rushed for 259 yards on 44 carries as he surpassed Tony Dorsett as the all-time leader in rushing yardage in Division I-A. ... Check out the special teams for both schools. As I mentioned way back in my first Saturday Selections, Texas A&M punter Shane Lechler may be the best in college football. Meanwhile, Kansas State sophomore David Allen is an excellent punt returner and has returned four punts for touchdowns. Also, the Wildcats have kicker Martin Gramatica, who earlier in the year kicked a field goal from 65 yards. Prediction: Kansas State is a frustrated squad. The Wildcats fully realize that no matter what they do Saturday, they still need help from others to get to the Fiesta Bowl. And they don't like that. The Wildcats feel that they have achieved everything that they have wanted and everything that could, and because of that, they should be in the Fiesta Bowl. I feel sorry for Texas A&M. I think Kansas State is going to take all that anger out on them. This could get ugly. Kansas State 41, Texas A&M 7. Back
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1 Tennessee (8-0 SEC, 11-0 overall) vs. No. 23 Mississippi St.
(6-2, 8-3) Notes: With a win over Mississippi, Tennessee will most likely be heading to the Fiesta Bowl for a chance at the national title. ... Tennessee is seeking its 13th SEC title on Saturday at the Georgia Dome, while Mississippi State is looking for its first since 1941. ... This is Tennessee's second trip to the SEC Championship Game. Last year, the Volunteers beat Auburn, 30-29. ... Tennessee is trying to remain perfect for an entire season for the eighth time in school history. ... Tennessee has won 11 games for the seventh time in school history and the third time in the past four years. ... This is Mississippi State's first appearance in the SEC Championship Game. ... Tennessee and Mississippi State have met 39 times, with the Volunteers leading the series, 23-15-1. Tennessee, though, has won only five of the nine meetings since 1971. ... The two schools have not played since 1995, when Peyton Manning led the Volunteers to a 52-14 thrashing. Manning will probably be at the game, considering his new team, the Indianapolis Colts, play on the same field Sunday. Stars to watch: Tennessee quarterback Tee Martin (138 of 235, or 58.7%, for 1,956 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions) ranks second in the SEC and 14th in the nation in pass efficiency with a 148.26 rating. Despite having to emerge from the shadows of Manning, who should be at this game (see above), Martin has gotten better as the season has continued. Over the last six games, he has thrown for 1,291 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception. Martin also can run the ball, collecting 307 yards and seven touchdowns on 94 carries. ... Mississippi State running back James Johnson, a senior, (222 carries for 1,345 yards, or 6.1 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns) is first in the SEC and ninth in the country in rushing, averaging 122.27 yards per game. His 6.1 yards per carry is the best among the top 15 rushers in the nation. Johnson comes into the game bothered by a groin injury but is likely to play. He saw limited action in the Bulldogs' 28-6 victory over Mississippi on Thanksgiving, gaining 34 yards on nine carries and scoring twice. Sleepers to watch: While Tennessee senior linebacker Al Wilson gets all the publicity, junior Raynoch Thompson leads the team in tackles with 83. Wilson and junior linebacker Eric Westmoreland have 73 each. The three have forced nine fumbles this year, led by Wilson's five. ... Mississippi State defensive end Edward Smith, a senior, leads the team with 119 tackles, including 12 sacks, which ranks second on the school's all-time single season list (Greg Favors had 12.5 in 1996). Smith has been named SEC defensive player of the week twice this season. What to watch: See who scores first. Mississippi State is 6-0 when it opens the scoring but only 2-3 when the opponent strikes first. ... Mississippi State's rushing offense vs. Tennessee's rushing defense. The Bulldogs need to establish their running game to keep the Volunteers' offense off field. Mississippi State ranks second in the SEC and 36th in the country in rushing, averaging 181.6 yards per game. On the other side, Tennessee is third in the SEC and eighth in the nation against the run, yielding only 96.5 yards. Tennessee has allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season. .... Overall, Tennessee's defense is extremely tough, allowing 14.5 points per game, good for 10th in the country. Against SEC teams, the Volunteers yield just 13.3 points a game. ... See how well Mississippi State's soft rushing defense (ranked 49th in the nation and eighth in the 12-team SEC) contains Tennessee running backs Travis Henry (150 carries for 850 yards, or 5.7 yards per carry, and seven touchdowns) and Travis Stephens (95 carries for 427 yards, or 4.5 yards per carry, and three touchdowns), who have done well in the place of injured tailback Jamal Lewis. ... Can Mississippi State quarterback Wayne Madkin (86 of 177, or 48.6%, for 1,448 yards, 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions) take advantage of Tennessee's secondary, which is probably the weakest part of the Tennessee defense? Prediction: Mississippi State, who has won three in a row, has done a remarkable job getting to this point, but like UCLA, Tennessee just has too much on the line to fool around with the Bulldogs. The Volunteers are going west, my friend. Tennessee 38, Mississippi State 17. Back
to the list The Associated Press, SportsTicker, sportsnetwork.com, The Sporting News College Football yearbook and Phil Steele's 1998 College Football Preview contributed information for this article. |
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