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I'm One
Of Many Disappointments Who has been the biggest disappointment In college football so far this year? Is it Arizona St.? Florida St.? Or Me? Not only did I have another brutal week last week - I went 4-10 - but my pick to win the Bowl Championship Series this year lost a game in which it was a 24-point favorite. So in the two weeks since I made my Fiesta Bowl prediction of Florida State over Arizona State, those two teams have lost three of the four games that they have played and were outscored last week 50-13. I guess I pick'em as well as a 4-year-old with no fingers. For the year, my record is 10-20. Gulp! But my recent success, or lack of it, will not deter me from picking an entertaining array of college football games this week. You have a wonderful rivalry in No. 2 Florida at No. 6 Tennessee; two Top 25 teams battling with No. 21 Missouri at No. 1 Ohio State and an intriguing game with Virginia Tech at Miami, Fla., in which the winner will probably be in next week's Associated Press Top 25. (Virginia Tech already is No. 21 in the USA Today/ESPN Coaches Poll) So let the games begin, and let the balls bounce my way for a change. (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through AQB's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
Colorado
St. at Air Force Notes: Colorado State is 8-3 against the spread in the series since 1987. ... Colorado State has covered five of the last six in the series and five straight times at Air Force. ... Last week, Colorado St. 26, Nevada 14. ... Colorado St. is 33-15 against the spread after a straight-up win since 1990. ... Last week, Air Force 52, UNLV 10. ... Air Force 1-7 against the spread in a home game sandwiched between two road games. Stars to watch: Colorado St.'s backfield tandem of Damon Washington (58 carries, 187 yards, 3.2 yards per carry and one touchdown) and Kevin McDougal (23 carries, 114 yards, 5 yards per carry and one touchdown) are load to stop. ... Air Force quarterback Blane Morgan, brother of Beau, already appears in mid-season form as the 5-9 senior has scored five touchdowns this year (all rushing). Sleepers to watch: Colorado St. receiver Frank Rice has three touchdowns (two receiving and one running) and is the guy quarterback Ryan Eslinger looks to when he needs a big play. ... Air Force all-everything back Qualario Brown leads the team in rushing (24 carries, 244 yards, 10.2 yards per carry average and one touchdown) and receiving (3 catches, 51 yards and one touchdown). What to watch: See if Air Force can continue its offensive attack that has led it to wins of 42-0 over Wake Forest and 52-10 over UNLV. ... Watch if Colorado St. can resurrect the fire and the running game that it had against Michigan State. Prediction: Good news is that I am undefeated this year on Thursday nights (3-0), bad news is this page is called Saturday Selections. But I will put my undefeated record on the line and pick Air Force. Yes, I realize I'm going against many of the trends outlined above, but they are playing better now and they are the home team. Air Force 28, Colorado St. 20.
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21 Missouri at No. 1 Ohio State Notes: Missouri is 1-9 against the spread in first away game over past 10 years. ... Ohio State is 5-1 against the spread in the week before a bye. (guess what next week is) ... Missouri is 9-18-2 against the spread over the past nine years as a double-digit road underdog. ... Since 1994, Ohio State is 15-5 against the spread vs. teams in a bowl game the previous year. ... Missouri is 7-23 against the spread after a straight-up since 1988. ... Missouri is 1-9-1 against Ohio State, including a 31-10 loss last year. ... Last week, Missouri 41, Kansas 23 and Ohio State 49, Toledo 0 Stars to watch: Missouri quarterback Corby Jones (14-27 for 252 yards; four touchdowns rushing, three touchdowns passing and one interception) is the straw that stirs Missouri's drink. He not only is a talented ballplayer, but a smart one, too. Last year, though, he threw three interceptions against Ohio State. ... Ohio State wide receiver David Boston (12 catches, 184 yards and two touchdowns) is off to a good start. In last year's game against Missouri, Boston had five catches for 101 yards. Sleepers to watch: Missouri running back Devin West (49 carries, 444 yards, 9.1 yards per carry and four touchdowns) leads the nation with an average of 222 yards per game. ... Ohio State running back Michael Wiley (30 carries, 291 yards, 9.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns) is quickly making Buckeye fans forget Pepe Pearson. Wiley isn't the typical Ohio State back - he is more fast than wide and has soft hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. What to watch: See if Missouri can get its running game going against Ohio State. It will need to rush the ball effectively to keep Ohio State's potent offense off the field. ... Neither team has played a close game yet this season. So if it stays close, watch to see who might feel the pressure more - an inexperienced Missouri or the No. 1 Ohio State. ... See if Missouri can slow down the Ohio State offense. Prediction: This is a tough game for Missouri, who certainly has the horses to compete but not enough to win. Jones is the type of playmaker who can cover up some holes for your team and even pull off an upset with a little luck. (Remember the miracle win against Missouri by then No. 1 Nebraska last year?) But everything right now is clicking for Ohio State, whose defense has allowed only seven points in the past six quarters. Besides, it is too early in the year for the Buckeyes to choke. Ohio State 31, Missouri 10 Back
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7 LSU at Auburn Notes: LSU is 6-2 against the spread in the series since 1988. ... Seven of the past eight games in this series have been decided by less than a touchdown. The past four meetings have been decided by a total of 17 points. ... LSU has covered in its past four trips to Auburn ... Auburn is 3-8 against the spread before a bye week since 1991. ... LSU is 7-1 against the spread in past eight SEC openers. ... Auburn is 2-8 against the spread in its past 10 SEC home openers. ... The road team has won the past two years. Last week, LSU 42, Arkansas St. 6 and Auburn 17, Mississippi 0. Stars to watch: LSU running back Kevin Faulk (17 carries, 180 yards and two touchdowns rushing) is not only shouldering the whole load in the backfield (see last week), he also is doing it on special teams. Last week, he returned a punt 58 yards for a touchdown. ... Auburn's All-SEC defensive end Jimmy Brumbaugh is back after missing the last three games because of a knee injury. Sleepers to watch: LSU nose guard Anthony McFarland, who was the SEC freshman defensive player of the year in 1995 and was second team All-SEC in 1996, had 10 tackles last week, including five for a loss. He is trying to rebound after a disappointing year last year. ...Auburn quarterback Ben Leard (27-52, 341 yards, one touchdown and one interception) is still learning the game. The sophomore first-year starter has struggled at times handling the offense this year. What to watch: Can Auburn get more from its running game than the 106 yards on 39 carries that it got last week? ... Will the Faulk-led LSU offense move the ball as easily against Auburn as it did Arkansas St.? ... Watch for unusual things because this series has included the "Earthquake Game" in 1988, when a roar from Tiger Stadium at LSU registered on the campus seismograph; "Bring Back the Magic" in 1995, when LSU - wearing its white jerseys for the first time in 13 years - won on a defensive touchdown on the game's final play; and "The Night the Barn Burned," when the old Auburn Sports Arena visibly burned down. Prediction: This always-entertaining Tiger tussle has had some weird moments in recent years, and I think this game has the potential to be just as odd. That is because I think it is going to be one-sided in LSU's favor. Auburn just isn't that good despite a 17-0 win at Mississippi last week. Virginia manhandled them in its home opener a couple weeks ago. I see the same thing this week, this time from a more powerful LSU offense. LSU 26, Auburn 13. Back
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2 Florida at No. 6 Tennessee Notes: The numbers in this rivalry are endless. ... Florida is 6-1 straight up and against the spread vs. Tennessee since 1991. ... Florida has the third-best record in the 1990s (85-16-1), while Tennessee is fifth (78-19-2). ... Tennessee is 7-12 against the spread in September since 1993. ... Florida is 8-3 against the spread in SEC openers since 1987. ... Tennessee coach Philip Fullmer has 11 defeats in his career, five of which came against Florida. Fullmer won the first game against Florida but has lost five straight since. ... Florida is 13-2 against the spread away on grass since 1993. ... Florida has won five of the past seven SEC titles, going 59-8 against the SEC since 1990. ... This is fourth straight time - and seven of nine - that both teams were in the Top 10 at the time of the meeting. ... The winner of this game has scored at least 31 points in each of the past eight years. ... Last week, Florida 42, NE Louisiana 10. Tennessee had a bye. Stars to watch: Usually, the stars on Florida are on offense. Not this year. The big studs are on defense, such as strong-side outside linebacker Jevon Kearse. The All-SEC first team linebacker knows how to make big plays. Last year, he had 6.5 sacks and six tackles behind line. Kearse, Johnny Rutledge and Mike Peterson arguably form the best linebacking corp in the country. (take your pick, either Florida or Kansas St. ... As we have said before, Jamal Lewis (20 carries, 141 yards, 7.1 yards per carry, one touchdown) is the key to Tennessee's offense. Sleepers to watch: Florida quarterback Jesse Palmer has thrown eight touchdown passes and averaged nearly 300 yards passing in two games. (Oh yeah, and three interceptions to the intimidating defensive backfields of The Citadel and Northeast Louisiana) Certainly he is no sleeper, but he is one to wach because this is the sophomore's first big test. Also, keep an eye on tailback Terry Jackson (26 carries, 244 yards, 9.4 yards per carry average and 3 touchdowns). ... Tennessee wide receiver Peerless Price (six catches, 87 yards and 2 touchdowns) is a speedster who will try to stretch Florida's defensive backfield, which is by far the weakest part of the defense. If Tennessee wins, it is because Price made a big play What to watch: See how Palmer and Tennessee quarterback Tee Martin handle the pressure of the big game, which could be decided by which quarterback makes the least mistakes. Martin has two clear advantages going into the game: 1. He is home. 2. He already has a big win under his belt, over Syracuse 34-33. ... Can Price use his speed to get open before Florida's front seven lands on Tee Martin. ... Can Tennessee's above-average offensive line give Martin time. ... But all this could be mute if Florida gets its offense going because this is the weakest Tennessee defense in a few years. ... Expect Florida to work tailback Jackson short and receiver Travis Green deep. Prediction: I was very impressed with Martin in the Syracuse game, but Florida's front seven is the best in college football and is a little more intimidating than Syracuse's. Nonetheless, I think Tennesse will score enough to win. The question is: Can Tennessee's defense stop Florida? I don't think so. Tennessee has little holes in each defensive unit that Florida will blow open during some stretch of the game. And that will be the difference. Florida wins and covers, 35-30. Back
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Rutgers at No. 13 Syracuse (-41) - Noon - Look for Syracuse quarterback Donovan McNabb to pad his Heisman numbers against the Rutgers. So far this season, the 6-3 senior has completed 43 of 55 passes (that's an amazing 78 percent completion ratio) for 533 yards and five touchdowns. He also has run for two more touchdowns. And this against two good teams - Tennessee and Michigan. O.K., one good team (Tennessee). McNabb needs two touchdown passes to break Glenn Foley's Big East record (61). Last year, Syracuse won, 50-3.
No. 20 North Carolina State (-7) at Baylor - 12:30 pm - Quick Quiz: Who has the longest winning streak in the ACC? Answer: North Carolina St. at five after last week's remarkable upset over Florida St. This, though, has letdown game written all over it, especially when you peek at the Wolfpack's schedule and see the next game is a Thursday night contest on Oct. 1 against Syracuse. N.C. State 20, Baylor 17. Players to watch: North Carolina St. wide receiver Torry Holt has carried the Wolfpack on his back. So far this season, he has caught 12 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. He also returned a 68-yard punt against Florida St. last week. ... The good news is Baylor returns its leading tackler from last season. Junior strong safety Rodney Smith led the team with 109 tackles, while his backfield mate, senior free safety Nikia Codie, was close behind at 88. The bad news is that Baylor's leading tacklers last year were in the defensive backfield. Back
to the list Wyoming at No. 12 Georgia (-15) - 1 pm - So far this year, Georgia has not allowed a touchdown (They beat Kent 56-3 and South Carolinat 17-3), but here comes a high-scoring WAC team that could... Ah, never mind, it's just Wyoming, the antithesis of a WAC team. Wyoming wins with a hard-charging, opportunistic defense. Last season, it set a school record with 24 interceptions and was second in the nation with 54 sacks. It's going to need a big day from its defense against Georgia quarterback Quincy Carter, running back Olandis Gary and All-American cornerback/wannabe receiver Champ Bailey. I think Wyoming's defense will keep it close enough to cover. Georgia 22, Wyoming 10. UNLV at No. 14 Wisconsin - no line - 2 pm - So far this season, UNLV has been outscored 93-17 in its two games against Northwestern and Air Force. Last week, UNLV gave up 383 rushing yards to Air Force. That's Air Force, not Run Force. Wisconsin's stud running back Ron Dayne returned last week and garnered 111 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Expect more this week. Back
to the list No. 17 Texas A&M (-3) at Southern Mississippi - 3 pm, Fox Sports Net - Both teams started the season losing to teams ranked higher than them, but Texas A&M rebounded last week, beating Louisiana Tech 28-7. The game is the home opener for Southern Miss, who has an eight-game home-winning streak but also has lost all three games when it has hosted a ranked opponent in the 1990s. I think this will make four. Texas A&M has a strong-enough defense to slow down Southern Miss and an explosive-enough offense to score. Texas A&M 24, Southern Miss 17. Players to watch: Texas A&M running back Dandre Hardeman has four touchdowns in two games. ... In the game against Penn State, Southern Miss quarterback Lee Roberts was 27 of 38 for 289 yards. His favorite target was, and usually is, wide receiver Sherrod Gideon, who had 13 catches for 176 yards. Utah St. at No. 15 Colorado (-22) - 3 pm - Colorado quarterback Mike Moschetti, who hurt his ribs last week against Fresno State, hopes to play Saturday, although Colorado probably doesn't need him to beat Utah St., who has surrendered 59 points in losses to Utah and New Mexico. Colorado, though, may need Moschetti to cover. Colorado 30, Utah St. 10. Back
to the list Clemson at No. 10 Virginia (-17) - 3:30 pm, ABC - Quick Quiz: Who is the highest-ranked team in the ACC? Answer: Virginia, who has opened the season with wins in Auburn and against Maryland. Virginia's best player by far is safety Anthony Poindexter, who has had some bigs against Clemson. Clemson has some interesting trends going for it this week: They have dominated the series with Virginia, 32-4-1 overall and 15-2 in Charlottesville; the road team has won the past three games of the series; Coach Tommy West is 9-1 in the regular season after losses since 1995 (Clemson was embarrassed last week at home against Virginia Tech, 37-0); and the bizarre stat of the week: Clemson is 8-0 on Sept. 19. I can't ignore these trends and my feelings that Virginia is slightly over-rated. Virginia 20, Clemson 15. BYU at No. 9 Washington (-9) - 3:30 pm, ABC - Here are two teams who aren't afraid to play tough out-of-conference teams. Besides this game, Washington goes to Nebraska next week, while BYU already has traveled to play Alabama (lost 38-31) and hosted Arizona State (won 26-6). Ahhh, Arizona State. I don't think many who saw the thrilling Washington-Arizona State game (a 42-38 Washington win) is going to forget it any time soon. Players to watch: BYU running back Ronney Jenkins has gained 339 all-purpose yards in BYU's first two game. The 21-year-old sophomore last week ran for 171 yards on 30 carries with a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 43 yards. ... Watch for these roommates for Washington: quarterback Brock Huard (27-47 for 302 yards and two touchdowns) and receiver Dane Looker (11 catches, 108 yards and two touchdowns). Washington has won 12 straight home openers and three straight against BYU, including last year's 42-20 win. As long as they aren't looking ahead to Lincoln next week, I like the Huskies. Washington 38, BYU 24. Back
to the list No. 8 Penn St. (-25) at Pittsburgh - 3:30 pm, CBS - And now the road to Joe Paterno's No. 400 begins. This is the 94th game between these Pennsylvania rivals, with Penn State leading the series 48-41-4. Penn State has won the last five meetings in the series. Make it the last six. Penn St. 42, Pittsburgh 7. Back
to the list No. 4 UCLA (-25) at Houston - 3:30 pm, CBS - UCLA played like championship contenders last week, while Houston has lost two games to teams considered also-rans in major conferences, California and Minnesota. UCLA quarterback Cade McNown started his Heisman campaign last week against Texas, by going 20-30 for 339 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, McNown had 448 yards of total offense in UCLA's 66-10 win over Houston. UCLA has won 11 in a row. It will be 12 in a row after Saturday. UCLA 38, Houston 0. Texas at No. 5 Kansas St. (-24 1/2) - 3:30 pm, ABC - Kansas St. has won its first two games by a combined score of 139-7, but that says more about its opponents - Division I-AA Indiana St. and 20-straight game loser Northern Illinois - than it does about the Wildcats. So many are watching to see how Kansas St. handles Texas, the Wildcats first "real" game of the season. Kansas St., an underdog pick to win it all this year, has stars on all sides of the ball. Kicker Martin Gramatica, who won the Lou Groza Award last year as the nation's best kicker, kicked last week a 65-yard field goal, which is the longest field goal ever in Division I-A without the use of a tee. Quarterback Michael Bishop is the Donovan McNabb of the midwest and can beat you running and throwing. The Wildcats linebackers - Travis Ochs, Jeff Kelly and Mark Simoneau - were considered the best in the country by most preview magazines. The matchup between Kansas St.'s linebackers vs. Texas running back Ricky Williams will be fun to watch for a while until Kansas St. starts to run away with the game. Williams, though, will see the ball a lot because Texas quarterback Richard Walton could miss four-six weeks with a broken finger. Kansas St. 44, Texas 10. Back
to the list San Jose St. at No. 22 Oregon (-24) - 4 pm - Oregon is looking to start the season 3-0, which is what it has done every year since coach Mike Bellotti started in 1995. San Jose St. started the year with a win at Stanford, but then promptly lost last week to Idaho (IDAHO!), 17-12. I see another loss for San Jose St. Oregon 31, San Jose St. 10 Maryland at No. 19 West Virginia (-20) - 6 pm, ESPN2 - West Virginia returns to the field for the first time since its loss two weeks ago against No. 1 Ohio State. The Mountaineers, though, will be playing for the first time in two years without stud linebacker Gary Stills, who broke his left kneecap in the Ohio State loss. Look for the Mountaineers to try to get Amos Zeroue on track; Zeroue had only 77 yards on 20 carries against Ohio State. Last year against Maryland, Zaroue carried the ball 30 times for 145 yards and one touchdown in a 31-14 win. West Virginia should regain some luster in the upcoming weeks with games against Tulsa, at Navy and at Temple. The four-game winning streak begins Saturday against a game Maryland team. West Virginia 28, Maryland 10. Back
to the list Duke at No. 11 Florida St. (-28) - 7 pm - Quick Quiz: Which team in this game has a loss? Answer: Florida St. (Are you catching on to the theme of the three Quick Quizes? Does it seem like I'm a little bitter that my Fiesta Bowl pick lost last week?) Chris Weinke, what are you doing to me? The Florida quarterback completed 15 passes last week - nine to Florida State and six to North Carolina State. Argh! Maybe some home-cooking will reinvigorate Weinke and his Seminoles. Duke, though, is my pick to be the surprise team of the ACC. Sure, it is going to break Virginia's ACC record for consecutive conference defeats by losing its 19th straight on Saturday, but its offense is better this year and its defense is improving. Last week, the Blue Devils beat a decent Northwestern team 44-10 as quarterback Spencer Romine (20-37, 303 yards, one touchdown) and receiver Richmond Flowers (seven catches, 124 yards) led the way. I see Duke hanging in there for a half against the Seminoles. Plus, anyone who saw Weinke's performance last week realizes that it takes more than a week to cure those ills. I'm taking the points. Florida St. 32, Duke 14. No. 25 Mississippi St. at Oklahoma St. (-1 1/2) - 7 pm - A real interesting intersectional match-up. Mississippi St. needs to get its passing game and quarterback Matt Wyatt (no touchdowns, two interceptions) on track. Mississippi St. had only 69 yards passing last week. So far this season, Mississippi St. running back James Johnson (48 carries, 303 yards, 6.3 yards per carry) has been carrying the load. A good passing game will help against Oklahoma St., who is strong against the run but weaker against the pass. But I don't see Wyatt improving, rather I see Oklahoma St., who suffered a tough loss at Tulsa last week 35-20, getting its trio of running backs going - Jamaal Fobbs (29 carries, 106 yards, 3.7 average), Tony Lindsay (26 carries, 94 yards, 3.6 average) and Nathan Simmons (21 carries, 91 yards, 4.3 average). Oklahoma St. 15, Mississippi St. 12. Back
to the list Virginia Tech at Miami, Fla. (-3) - 8 pm, ESPN - Two 2-0 teams battle for a spot in the Associated Press Top 25. Virginia Tech and Miami have been impressive so far blowing out each of their opponents. The game features plenty of entertaining players. Virginia Tech's stars include its quarterback Al Clark (three touchdowns, no interceptions), running back Shyrone Stith (6.3 yards per carry average, one touchdown) and its defense (which has allowed three points in two games). Miami's key players include quarterback Scott Covington (five touchdowns, no interceptions); a trio of running backs Najeh Davenport (184 yards, or 9.7 yards per carry), Edgerrin James (166 yards, or 5.7 yards per carry)and James Jackson (147 yards, or 11.3 yards per carry); and receiver Reggie Wayne (two touchdowns). Despite all that talent, this game could come down to special teams, which is where these two teams excel. Virginia Tech has blocked 62 kicks in 128 games under coach Frank Beamers, while Miami has blocked 28 kicks in 36 games under coach Butch Davis. Miami already has four blocks in two games this season! Virginia Tech, though, has two all-league kickers in kicker Shayne Graham and punter Jimmy Kibble. Overall, I think Miami has too much firepower for Virginia Tech, who has beaten the Hurricanes three straight times. I don't like the Hokies' defensive backfield, so I expect Miami to hurt the Hokies through the air. Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20. Back
to the list Oregon St. at No. 18 USC (-15 1/2) - 10 pm - For the first time since 1985, Oregon St. has won its first two games. The Beavers haven't won three straight games since 1970, which is the last time they had a winning record, the longest such stretch in Division I-A. What's amazing is that Oregon St. has done this without its best player, defensive lineman Inoke Breckterfield, who was kicked off the team. Despite Oregon St.'s recent success, I think they are going to come crashing to earth against a good USC team. The last time Oregon St. beat USC was in 1967, when it beat the eventual National Champion, 3-0. Look for R. Jay Soward to have another big day. The USC receiver had 256 yards of total offense last week in the 35-6 win over San Diego State. USC 38, Oregon St. 13.
Iowa at No. 16 Arizona (-9 1/2) - 10 pm, Fox Sports Net - After two road wins to start the season, Arizona opens at home against Iowa, who lost last week to intrastate rival Iowa State, 27-9. So far this season, Arizona coach Dick Tomey's rotation of Ortege Jenkins and Keith Smith has worked well. Combined, they have completed 59 percent of their passes for 525 yards, four touchdowns and only one interception. Arizona is a long way from Iowa, and we are not just talking about geography. Arizona 24, Iowa 7. Cincinnati (0-2) at Army (0-1) - Noon, Fox Sports Net - Army -2 - Army, now being all that it can be in Conference USA, plays its first conference game after 108 years as an independent. Central Florida (2-0) at Purdue (1-1) - Noon, ESPN - Central Florida quarterback Daunte Culpepper takes his Heisman chances to West Lafayette, Ind., where he meets up with another high-flying offense led by quarterback Drew Brees. If you love aerial attacks, you are going to love this game, which could last about four hours.
The Associated Press, SportsTicker, The Sporting News College Football yearbook, Preview Sports College Football preview, Phil Steele's 1998 College Football Preview and Petersen's Bob Griese's College Football contributed information for this article. Back
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