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Saturday
Selections I experienced a return to normalcy last week, going 6-8 for the week. But it could have been much worse. I correctly predicted the five late games on Saturday after going a pathetic 1-8 in the early games. Whew! For the year, my record is a sad 28-36. (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through AQB's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) This week's schedule features three key conference games that on paper look great but in Saturday Selections look like potential blowouts. I'm having a hard time seeing Penn State or Georgia beating Ohio State and LSU, respectively, on the road. However, I do see Arizona kicking on an already down Washington squad in Seattle. But to see my actual previews and picks of these games and others, just click below. And remember, this is for amusement purposes only. (Generally, your amusement over how inept I am at picking the games.) Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
No.
11 Syracuse (-12) at North Carolina St. Notes: Syracuse (2-1) is 21-10-2 as a road favorite since 1990. ... North Carolina State (2-1) is 20-9 against the spread as a home underdog since 1984. ... Syracuse is 47-19-1 over past 67 road games. ... North Carolina State is 2-6 against the spread in the past eight games in the week after a bye. ... Syracuse has never beaten North Carolina State in five meetings. ... Remember last year's game? North Carolina State won, 32-31, on a successful two-point conversion in overtime, which came after Syracuse back Dee Brown fumbled at the N.C. State two-yard line with 20 seconds left in regulation. Stars to watch: I know I have profiled Syracuse quarterback Donovan McNabb in past weeks (Saturday Selections No. 2 and No. 3), but you can't ignore what he has done so far this year. McNabb (51 of 67 for 652 yards and six touchdowns) has completed 76.1% of his passes without giving up an interception. He has thrown six touchdowns and ran for two others. McNabb, who is third in the country in passing efficiency, can take another step closer to the Heisman with a good game here. ... North Carolina State receiver Terry Holt (23 catches, 461 yards and four touchdowns), who caught the two-point conversion last year, also has had a great year and was instrumental in the Wolfpack's upset over Florida State earlier. Holt is second in the nation to Louisiana Tech's Troy Edwards in receiving yards per game (154 yards). Last year against Syracuse, Holt had five catches for 125 yards. Sleepers to watch: Syracuse fullback Rob Konrad is going to be the next "Moose" in the NFL. He can block. He can run (21 carries, 87 yards, 4.1 yards per carry average and three rushing touchdowns;). And he can catch (11 catches, 138 yards and two receiving touchdowns). Plus, he is a load to get down. ... North Carolina State safety Jason Perry has averaged an interception per game this year (three interceptions - three games). What to watch: Syracuse's McIntosh brothers. Starting tailback Kyle McIntosh (38 attempts, 187 yards, 4.9 yards per carry and two touchdowns) is the Orangeman's leading rusher, while junior cornerback and younger brother Ian probably will have to handle Holt. ... Will Syracuse seek revenge after last year's bitter defeat? ... Will North Carolina State's home magic continue? ... Can North Carolina State quarterback Jamie Barnette (49 of 105 for 913 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions) come up with the big game needed to beat Syracuse? Prediction: Expect more fireworks than a Fourth of July celebration. This should be a high-scoring affair, but the question is can N.C. State keep up with the Orangemen? I don't think the Wolfpack can win, but I like them to cover at home. Syracuse 38, N.C. State 28.
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No.
7 Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (-13) Notes: Penn State (3-0) is 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog in the 1990s. ... Penn State is 1-4 against the spread against Ohio State since starting in the Big 10. ... Ohio State (3-0) has covered three in a row against Penn State. ... Penn State has a 23-4 regular season road record since 1993. ... Ohio State is 22-10 against the spread in all home games since the beginning of the 1993 season. ... Paterno is 25-11 in games after a bye week, including winning seven in a row. ... Third straight year, this game has featured two unbeaten Top-10 teams. ... Last year, Penn State had to come back from 10 behind to win at home, 31-27. Stars to watch: Penn State linebacker Brandon Short continues Penn State's lineage (see, Gilbert Gottfried, I use the word lineage) of great linebackers - Jack Ham, Shane Conlan and Matt Millen. He's great at making the big hit. ... Ohio State cornerback Antoine Winfield is the best cornerback and best tackler in the Big 10. Don't even try to argue that with me. Sleepers to watch: Penn State tailback Cordell Mitchell (35 carries, 259 yards, 7.4 yards per carry and two touchdowns) is the school's main horse, although fullback Aaron Harris (three carries for 13 yards) played a little bit in Penn State's 20-13 win over Pittsburgh. Harris is coming back from a knee injury. ... Ohio State receiver Dee Miller (14 catches, 213 yards and two touchdowns) is the quieter sidekick to David Boston (21 catches, 296 yards and two touchdowns) What to watch: Can Penn State's defense, which is in the top 20 in the nation against the run, contain Ohio State running back Michael Wiley (54 carries, 500 yards, 9.3 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns), who is the sixth-leading rusher in the nation? ... If Penn State does slow down Wiley - a big question mark - will Joe Germaine (50 of 78, or 64.1%, for 662 yards, five touchdowns and NO interceptions) step up? ... Ohio State has scored 34 or more points in each of its three games, while Penn State has allowed 13 or less points in each of its three games. Something is going to give this week. ... Can Penn State's offense move the ball against the Ohio State defense, which is ninth in the nation in total defense (allowing 238.3 yards a game) and seventh in the nation in scoring defense (allowing 10.3 points a game)? ... Can Ohio State's offense move the ball against the Penn State defense, which is 19th in the nation in total defense (allowing 281.3 yards a game) and fourth in the nation in scoring defense (allowing 7.3 points a game)? Prediction: Penn State can't get into a shoot-out with Ohio State. Unfortunately for them, I don't think Ohio State will hold back. Is it November yet? No? O.K., then I see a big Ohio State win. (An Ohio State win means the Buckeyes should be undefeated going into the Michigan game Nov. 21 at Columbus.) Ohio State 38, Penn State 13. Back
to the list No.
12 Georgia at No. 6 LSU (-8 1/2) Notes: After a bye week, Georgia (3-0) is 8-2 against the spread over the past four years and 10-4 since 1992. ... LSU (3-0) is 12-22-1 over the past 35 games at home against the SEC. ... Since 1960, LSU has a record of 165-51-4 in night games at Tiger Stadium. ... LSU is 4-2 over the past six SEC home openers. ... Amazingly, this is the first meeting between these two SEC foes since 1991, when Georgia won 31-10 in Athens, Ga. The two teams are scheduled to play next year, but then won't meet again until 2006. Wow. ... LSU has a 12-7-1 advantage in the all-time series. Stars to watch: Georgia cornerback/receiver Champ Bailey is an All-American candidate at the corner but is also the Bulldogs leading receiver (11 catches, 218 yards and two touchdowns). ... LSU running back Kevin Faulk (51 carries, 446 yards, 8.7 yards per carry and five touchdowns) is eighth in the nation in rushing and second to Louisiana Tech's Troy Edwards in all-purpose yards. Faulk averages 224.33 all-purpose yards per game, while Edwards is averaging 245.60 all-purpose yards per game. Faulk, who has returned a punt for a touchdown this year, has four catches for 81 yards and two receiving touchdowns. The 5-10, 192-pound senior is one of the best open field runners in college. Sleepers to watch: Georgia left tackle Matt Stinchcomb was a consensus preseason All-American, while the Bulldogs right tackle Chris Terry has been excellent since converting from a defensive end. They may be the top pair of tackles in the SEC. ... LSU quarterback Herb Tyler (40 of 59, or 67.8%, for 551 yards, six touchdowns and one interception) may not be the first stud SEC quarterback that you think of, but he is eighth in the nation in passing efficiency (right behind Florida's Jesse Palmer). But this is the best defense that he has faced so far this year. What to watch: How Georgia freshman quarterback Quincy Carter (39 of 59 for 639 yards, four touchdowns and one interception) responds to his first rough SEC road game. ... Georgia's defense, which is among the best in the country. The Bulldogs' D is first in scoring defense (giving up on average only five points a game) and seventh in total defense (allowing 229.7 yards a game); however, the Bulldogs have not faced an offense this potent this year. LSU's offense is seventh in the country in scoring, averaging 42 points a game. ... Can Georgia run against LSU, who has allowed 64 rushing yards on 65 carries in its first three games. Prediction: Georgia's defense is going to have to come up HUGE this week against LSU because the Bulldogs can't count on Carter to win this game in noisy Tiger Stadium. The next two games will determine how serious a contender these two teams are. (Next week, Georgia hosts Tennessee, while LSU travels to Gainesville, Fla., to face Florida.) I think Georgia is over-rated and poised to fall. LSU wins convincingly this week. LSU 29, Georgia 10. Back
to the list No.
14 Arizona at No. 20 Washington (-3) Notes: Arizona (4-0) is 1-5 against the spread against Washington since 1990. ... Washington (2-1) is also 5-1 against the spread in the past six home games against Arizona. ... Home team is 5-2 against the spread in this series. ... Favorite is 6-1 against the spread in this series since 1989. ... Second straight game against an unbeaten opponent for Washington, who got walloped 55-7 last week against Nebraska. ... Washington has won three straight games in the series (all by two touchdowns or more), including last year's 58-28 pasting. ... Arizona has not beaten Washington since 1992, when it won 16-3. That 1992 game was the last time Washington didn't score a touchdown in a game. Stars to watch: We've already featured Arizona running back Trung Canidate twice (Saturday Selections No. 2 and No. 5), so it's probably time to look at someone else. How about receiver Dennis Northcutt (23 catches, 458 yards and three touchdowns), who is tenth in the country in receiving yards per game? Or his receiving partner, Jeremy McDaniel (22 catches, 310 yards and four touchdowns), who isn't bad either. ... Junior linebackers Lester Towns and Marques Hairston comprise one of the best inside linebacker duos in the Pac-10 - although they ate a lot of the Nebraska turf last week. Sleepers to watch: While Canidate (47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 yards per carry and two touchdowns) gets most of the well-deserved praise, running back Kelvin Eafon (54 carries, 175 yards, 3.2 yards per carry and five touchdowns) also is putting up some nice numbers. ... Washington cornerback/kickoff returner Toure Butler has scored two touchdowns this season - one on a 98-yard kickoff return, the other on 35-yard fumble recovery. What to watch: How Washington quarterback Brock Huard responds to his disappointing outing last week (18-32 for 160 yards) in the 55-7 loss to Nebraska. ... How Washington's rushing defense responds after giving up an astronomical 434 rushing yards against Nebraska last week. ... Oh hell, just watch how the whole Huskie team comes back after that debacle last week. ... Don't miss when Arizona kicks off to Washington. The Huskies have the third-best kickoff return average in the nation, getting 34.4 yards a return. ... How Arizona alternates quarterbacks. Keith Smith (42 of 60, or 70%, for 636 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions) is the sixth-best quarterback in the country in passing efficiency, but Ortege Jenkins (21 of 44, for 370 yards, one touchdown and one interception) usually splits the game with him. Prediction: Washington really hasn't played that well since the Arizona St. game Sept. 5, while Arizona hasn't broken a sweat so far in its four games. I know it ain't easy winning up in Seattle's Husky Stadium, and I know the trends in the series say otherwise, but I'm going with Arizona to pull the upset. Arizona 20, Washington 17. Back
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No. 16 West Virginia (-15 1/2) at Navy - Noon, Fox - Interestingly, West Virginia (2-1) has beaten Navy (1-1) only once in six meetings, and that was in 1917! The two teams haven't played each other since 1963. Navy's offense, as usual, relies on the option anchored by quarterback Steve Holley (67 carries, 310 yards, 4.6 yards per carry and three touchdowns) and running back Irv Dingle (46 carries, 261 yards, 5.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns.). Of course, West Virginia also has a decent running game, led by the nation's 10th-leading rusher, Amos Zereoue (67 carries, 404 yards, 6.0 yards per carry and five touchdowns). This is West Virginia's first game on the road and its last nonconference game this season. The Mountaineers are 13-5 in road openers under coach Don Nehlen. Make it 14-5, but only after Navy (third in the country in rushing offense) tests them for a while. (Note: West Virginia's stud linebacker Gary Stills will miss the game) West Virginia 34, Navy 21. No. 13 Wisconsin (-13) at Indiana - Noon, ESPN2 - Question: Who has the better running game - Wisconsin or Indiana? Of course, it's Indiana (2-1). Why would I ask that question, if it wasn't? Indiana is 13th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 238.7 yards per game, while Wisconsin (4-0) is four spots below the Hoosiers, averaging 232.5 yards per game. Hoosier quarterback Antwaan Randle El leads Indiana in rushing (57 carries, 200 yards, 3.5 yards per carry and five touchdowns) and passing (43 of 84, 733 yards, four touchdowns and one interception); meanwhile, big Ron Dayne, 11th in the country in rushing, tops the Badgers' rushing totals with 55 carries, 387 yards, 7.0 yards a carry and four touchdowns. The difference in this game will be defense. Switzerland has a better defense than the Hoosiers. Indiana has allowed an average of 445 yards per game, placing them 101 out of 112 Division 1-A schools. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has the fifth-best rushing defense in the country, averaging 64 rushing yards allowed per game in its first four games. Wisconsin runs over Indiana, winning the game and overtaking them in rushing offense. Wisconsin 31, Indiana 12. Back
to the list No. 18 Texas A&M (-14) at Kansas - 12:30 pm, Big 12 Network - Since losing to Florida State in the Kickoff Classic, Texas A&M (2-1*) has allowed a total of 22 points over three games. Kansas (2-2) has allowed at least 21 points in each of its four games this year. Expect Aggie runners Dante Hall (50 carries, 256 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and two touchdowns) and Sirr Parker (36 carries, 99 yards, 2.8 yards per carry and one touchdown) to build up their rushing totals against an anemic Kansas run defense. Kansas, though, has a couple of quality runners in David Winbush (70 carries, 245 yards, 3.5 yards per carry and two touchdowns) and Mitch Bowles (30 carries, 226 yards, 7.5 yards per carry and two touchdowns); however, they will be going up against a defense ranked 13th in the country in total defense. And I see another good day for the Aggie defense. Texas A&M 27, Kansas 9. *Voluntarily forfeited the win against Louisiana Tech after learning that fullback D'Andre Hardeman was academically ineligible. Including the win, the Aggies are 3-1. No. 8 Florida (-16) at Alabama - 12:30 pm, Jefferson Pilot - These two teams have played in some big games this decade, including four SEC title game (Florida won three of the four), but this is not one of them. Especially after Alabama (2-1) suffered its worst defeat last week, losing to Arkansas 42-6, since before Bear Bryant was head coach! Stud running back Shaun Alexander was held to 48 yards on 21 carries. And now here comes Florida (3-1), fifth in the country in total offense and 12th in the nation in total defense. Assuming Florida can hold onto the ball (and they only turned the ball over once last week against Kentucky), the Mike DuBose Watch will begin in earnest in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Florida 44, Alabama 16. Back
to the list San Jose St. at No. 10 Virginia (-27 1/2) - 1 pm - Virginia (4-0) has not allowed a point in its two road games but has allowed almost 20 points a game in its two home contests. Let's see if Virginia is a little stingier in its homecoming game against San Jose State (2-2), who should be getting back two of its offensive stars from injury. Tailback Carlos Meeks (54 carries, 264 yards, 4.9 yards per carry and one touchdown) returns from a left ankle injury, while Donte Scarbrough (4 catches, 109 yards and one touchdown) comes back from a left thumb injury. Virginia is clearly the better team, and San Jose State is a nice Homecoming dance for the Cavaliers. But that is a lot points. I hesitantly swallow the 27 1/2. Virginia 42, San Jose St. 14. No. 9 Florida St. (-28 1/2) at Maryland - 1 pm, Sunshine Network - Maryland (2-2) has never beaten Florida State (3-1) in eight meetings and has lost the past six games in the series by an average score of 55-16. Florida State is sixth in the country in pass defense; Maryland is 100th out of 112 teams. The two teams Maryland has beaten are James Madison and Temple; two teams that Florida State has beaten are Texas A&M and USC. Florida State already has played its one bad game this year. Florida State 52, Maryland 10. Back
to the list Stanford at No. 23 Notre Dame (-18) - 1:30 pm, NBC - It's been the good, the so-so and the ugly for Notre Dame (2-1) this year. The Irish killed Michigan, slid by Purdue and got walloped by Michigan State. Stanford (1-3), on the other hand, has just looked bad, losing its three games by a total of 69 points. The Cardinal ran for 322 yards last year against Notre Dame; however, the runners responsible for that output are gone. Also gone may be star wide receiver Troy Walter, who has been nursing an ankle sprain and is questionable. Notre Dame's defense isn't that great, but it's good enough to cover at home. Notre Dame 35, Stanford 14. Northwestern St. at No. 23 Missouri - 2 pm - No line. No contest as Missouri should easily handle the Division I-AA Northwestern St. Demons, whose best player is probably defensive end Robert Daniel. Back
to the list No. 3 Tennessee (-7) at Auburn - 3:30 pm, CBS - Last year in the SEC Championship, Tennessee hung on to beat Auburn, 30-29. But goodbye Volunteer quarterback Peyton Manning. Hello Tee Martin. And adious Auburn quarterback Dameyune Craig, hola Ben Leard. While Martin has capably led Tennessee (3-0), Leard has struggled at Auburn (1-2). But it is not all his fault. Auburn averages only 49 yards rushing a game, which is 111th out of 112 teams. And that figure doesn't look like it will be getting any better with Tennessee coming to town. The Volunteers rushing defense is ranked second in the country, allowing 57 yards a game. However, Tennessee stud linebacker Al Wilson hurt his shoulder in last week's game against Houston, and his status for Saturday's game is unknown Tennessee has scored an average of 32 points a game this season, while Auburn has averaged 12 points a game. Auburn, coming off a bye week, lost two weeks ago to LSU at home, 31-19, in a game that was closer than the score indicated. I have a nasty feeling that Auburn coach Terry Bowden is going to have something sneaky up his sleeve for this game, but I just don't feel confident taking the upset. Tennesse 31, Auburn 23. Washington State at No. 4 UCLA (-24) - 3:30 pm, ABC - UCLA (2-0) is coming off a bye week, although not of its choosing. The Bruins' game against Miami was canceled because of fears about Hurricane Georges. Now, UCLA is going to have to work extra hard to possibly make up that lost game, which - if not rescheduled - could hurt them in the Bowl Championship Series calculation. Washington State (3-1) comes into the game with three wins but don't let the record fool you. They have beaten two Idaho teams (Boise State and Idaho) and the worst team in the Big 10 (Illinois), but they have won three of the past four games against UCLA. UCLA, and its Heisman candidate Cade McNown, should come into the game looking to re-establish the team's credibility. Plus, it wants to revenge last year's opening game loss, 37-34, to the Cougars. That game ended up being the difference that put Washington State in the Rose Bowl and UCLA in the Cotton Bowl. Washington State has the fourth-best passing defense in the nation, but that is about to change. UCLA 44, Washington State 14. Back
to the list No. 25 Michigan (-9) at Iowa - 3:30 pm, ABC - Michigan has dominated this series, possessing an 8-35-4 record. The Wolverines have won the last five series meetings, including the 28-24 comeback last year, and have scored at least 23 points in the past seven meetings. That should be enough to win and cover. Michigan 24, Iowa 14. No. 15 Colorado (-3 1/2) at Oklahoma - 3:30 pm, ABC - Colorado is 4-0 but an unimpressive 4-0, after its opening game win against Colorado State. Last week, the Buffaloes needed a late field goal to beat Baylor at home. Colorado has its share of injuries. Running backs Marlon Barnes and Dwayne Cherrington are hurt, while quarterback Mike Moschetti has a sprained ankle. Their availability for Saturday is unknown. If Moschetti can't play, Adam Bledsoe, younger brother of New England Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe, would take his place. However, Colorado has dominated the recent series against Oklahoma with a 6-0-1 record in the past seven games. Plus, the Buffaloes are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games against the Sooners and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven in Norman. Colorado isn't a Top 15 team, but this isn't the week they fall. Colorado 23, Oklahoma 17. Back
to the list Kentucky at No. 22 Arkansas (-4) - 6 pm, ESPN2 - Even though this is an SEC game, this is the first time these two schools have ever met. Kentucky (3-1) brings the best passing offense in the country to face a solid Arkansas (3-0) defense that held Alabama to six points last week. Arkansas' best defense, though, may be a running offense, which is where running backs Chrys Chukwuma (43 carries, 343 yards, 8.0 yards per carry and three touchdowns) and Madre Hill (40 carries, 229 yards, 5.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns) will come into play. Although junior Razorback quarterback Clint Stoerner (43 of 83 for 730 yards, seven touchdowns and NO interceptions) has proven that he can handle the offense. While those numbers are impressive, they pale in comparison to Kentucky quarterback Tim Couch (139 of 194 for 1,577 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions). Six Kentucky receivers have 100 or more receiving yards led by Craig Yeast (31 catches, 538 yards, five receiving touchdowns, one kickoff return for a touchdown). I predicted the Arkansas "upset" last week, and I'm going to ride my Razorbacks. Arkansas 28, Kentucky 21. No. 2 Nebraska (-27 1/2) at Oklahoma St. (at Kansas City, Mo.) - 7 pm, Fox Sports Net - Stat of the week: Oklahoma State has not beaten Nebraska in 34 straight games over the past 36 years! The Cowboys have only beaten Nebraska twice, and that was in the first two games they ever played. Nebraska's winning margin against Oklahoma State is more than 20 points. And what luck for Oklahoma State! They are the "home" team, but yet the game isn't even in the state of Oklahoma! The last time Oklahoma State beat Nebraska, Roger Maris had just broken the single-season home run record in baseball. And we all know what happened to that record this year, so could this be the year that the Cowboys.... Nah, Nebraska wins its 35th straight against Oklahoma State and 19th straight overall. Nebraska 48, Oklahoma State 20. Back
to the list Arizona St. at No. 21 USC (-3) - 7 pm, ABC - USC's passing game struggled last week against Florida State, garnering only 23 yards. But then again, it hasn't been clicking all year as sophomore quarterback Mike Van Raaphorst has completed only 44.6% of his passes, and freshman Carson Palmer has been worse, hitting on only 35.5% of his passes. Combined, they have four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games. It's not like the two quarterbacks don't have weapons to exploit. Chad Morton (76 carries, 350 yards, 4.6 yards per carry and four touchdowns) is an excellent running back, while R. Jay Soward (12 catches, 181 yards, two receiving touchdowns and one touchdown return) is a top NFL prospect. Meanwhile, Arizona State has started to rebuild its season after its first two disappointing losses. (Disappointing to me, too, because I had them going to the Fiesta Bowl!) Of course, it isn't exactly a challenge to beat North Texas and Oregon State, who hasn't had a winning season since before I was born. As always, the stud on Arizona State is J.R. Redmond, who averages 171.25 all-purpose yards per game. Arizona State is the only Pac-10 team with a winning record against USC, 8-6. Plus, the Sun Devils have a winning record in games at USC, 3-2. I think Arizona State's tough times are behind them, while USC's slide is just beginning. Arizona State 32, USC 25. Back
to the list The Associated Press, SportsTicker, The Sporting News College Football yearbook, Preview Sports College Football preview, Phil Steele's 1998 College Football Preview, Sportsform and Petersen's Bob Griese's College Football contributed information for this article. |
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