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College
Football Is In The Air,
With baseball winding down and a chill rising in the air - at least here on the East Coast - it is beginning to look a lot like college football time. Hopefully that means I'll be able to spend more time on picks. I followed a 9-7 week two weeks ago with a 7-9 week last week, giving me a 16-16 record over the past two weeks and bringing my season total to 51-62-1. (To see last week's Saturday Selections, click here. To look at this week's NFL games through AQB's unique Crystal Ball, click here.) This week has some intriguing games, including a rematch of last year's most intriguing game, when No. 19 Missouri travels to Lincoln to face No. 7 Nebraska. Last year, as I'm sure you remember, Nebraska tied Missouri at the end of regulation when freshman Matt Davison caught a ball in the end zone after it was kicked by teammate Shevin Wiggins. What is often forgotten is that Nebraska had to drive 67 yards on 10 plays in a the final 1:02 to score that touchdown, which tied the game 38-38. In overtime, the Huskers scored in three plays, the last being a 12-yard run by quarterback Scott Frost. The defense then stopped Missouri's offense on four plays for a 45-38 victory last November. Other major games this week include another big Big 12 tilt, this one for the South Division lead, when No. 25 Texas Tech visits College Station to face No. 8 Texas A&M. Meanwhile, No. 6 Florida State will try to regain first place in the ACC when it battles surprising No. 20 Georgia Tech in Atlanta. A few other notable games include a potential thriller in Lexington, Ky., where No. 11 Georgia battles Kentucky and two influential Pac-10 contests, No. 2 UCLA at California and USC at No. 12 Oregon. Here are my previews and picks for all the games involving Top 25 teams. Remember, this is for amusement purposes only. (Generally, your amusement over how inept I am at picking the games.) Click on a particular game previewed or just scroll down the page. (All times Eastern. All rankings AP. Note: I don't pick games with odds over 30 points)
Stanford (1-5) at Arizona State (2-4) - 10 pm, Fox Sports Net - Arizona State (-16 1/2) - Could I have been more wrong about Arizona State? In my first Saturday Selections, I predicted they would go to the Fiesta Bowl, instead that prediction is headed to the toilet bowl. Arizona State has never recovered from an opening week loss at home to Washington, 42-38, although they still have loads of talent. But that talent isn't playing up to expectations, which is why the Sun Devils pulled starting quarterback Ryan Kealy (season: 78 of 143 for 1,061 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions) in the loss to Notre Dame and replaced him with redshirt freshman Chad Elliott (season: 26 of 48 for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception). Coach Bruce Snyder has named Elliott the starting quarterback against Stanford. One talent that is playing up to expectations is stud tailback J.R. Redmond (128 carries, 649 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and seven touchdowns; plus, 18 catches for 170 yards), who said recently that he plans to return for his senior season. Of course, that's easier to say in October... As for Stanford, The Cardinal is 1-5 and about to enter the tough stretch of its schedule! After Arizona State this week, Stanford travels to UCLA, hosts USC and Washington State, and ends at California. If Stanford wants to end the season with more than one win, this is probably the week to do it. The biggest problem for Stanford has been its defense, which is last in total defense in the Pac 10, giving up 481.3 yards and 38 points per game. How will that defense do against a redshirt freshman quarterback starting his first game? I think The Cardinal will keep the game close but eventually lose. Arizona State 24, Stanford 20.
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19 Missouri (5-1) at No. 7 Nebraska (6-1) Notes: Nebraska (2-1 in the Big 12) is a 19-point favorite, but Missouri (3-0 in the Big 12) is ahead of the Cornhuskers in the Big 12's North Division. ... The last time Missouri started 3-0 in the conference was in 1980. They never made it to 4-0 because Nebraska crushed them, 38-16. ... In past nine games, Nebraska is 6-3 against the spread vs. Missouri. ... The last three Missouri victories against Nebraska have been in Lincoln - although none of them since the Carter administration (1974, 1976 and 1978). ... This is the 17th straight time Nebraska comes into this game ranked in the Top 10, but it is the first time Missouri has been ranked in the game against Nebraska since 1981. ... Missouri is 10-18-2 against the spread over the past nine years as double-digit road underdogs. ... The home team is 6-2 against the spread in this series in the 1990s. Stars to watch: This game features the fourth- and fifth-best rushing teams in the country, behind only the three service academies. So obviously, the running backs are the stars to watch in this game. ... In Missouri's option, most of the works goes to running back Devin West (166 carries, 1,051 yards, 6.3 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns) and quarterback Corby Jones (84 carries, 251 yards, 3.0 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns). West is second in the nation in rushing, averaging more than 175 rushing yards a game, and sixth in scoring. Jones and West have accounted for 24 of Missouri's 26 touchdowns this year. ... Because of injuries and a load of talent, Nebraska has split the running duties primarily among two I-backs, Correll Buckhalter (74 carries, 477 yards, 6.4 yards per carry and seven touchdowns) and Deangelo Evans (38 carries, 218 yards, 5.7 yards per carry and four touchdowns), and a fullback, Joel Makovicka (67 carries, 337 yards, 5.0 yards per carry and two touchdowns). Sleepers to watch: Missouri doesn't throw much, but when they do, Kent Layman (15 catches, 304 yards and two touchdowns) is Jones' main target. ... Nebraska receiver Matt Davison - yes, that Matt Davison - caught 10 passes for a school-record 167 yards in the Cornhuskers' 28-21 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago. Although that's not why everyone wants to talk with him this week. Davison leads the team with 24 catches and 310 yards. Who's second in catches? The man who put his best foot forward on Davison's famous catch last year, Shevin Wiggins (12 catches, 180 yards and one touchdown) What to watch: Missouri needs a big game from its defense against Nebraska's rushing offense. Both teams can run the ball, but only Nebraska has proven that it can stop the run (it allows on average 73.4 rushing yards a game). Missouri's goal for its defense should be to hold Nebraska's rushing attack to 200 yards. The Tigers allow 193.7 rushing yards a game on average this season. ... This game features the two best centers in the Big 12 - Nebraska's Josh Heskew, a 6-3 290-pound senior, and Missouri's Rob Riti, a 6-3 283-pound junior. I just threw that in for my partner, Randy, a former offensive lineman in college. Prediction: As I said when Missouri played Ohio State, Tigers quarterback Corby Jones is the type of athlete and leader that can keep his team close in a game where they are big underdogs. I think Nebraska has played its one great game (beat Washington 55-7) and its one bad game (28-21 loss at Texas A&M, so that means the Huskers should be somewhere in between on Saturday. And this isn't the same dominating Nebraska team of recent years. Missouri doesn't win, but it gives Nebraska another scare. The Huskers use their feet to win in a more conventional way. Nebraska 27, Missouri 24. Back
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25 Texas Tech (6-1) at No. 8 Texas A&M (6-1)* *Excludes forfeit to Louisiana Tech for using an ineligible player. Including forfeit, Texas A&M is 5-2. Notes: Texas Tech (3-1 in the conference) has won the last three games in this series by a total of 13 points. ... Texas A&M (3-0 in the conference) is 5-12 against the spread in the last 17 games against Texas Tech. ... STAT OF THE WEEK: Texas Tech is 14-1 against the spread since 1994 after a loss. Last week, Colorado beat them, 19-17. ... Visitor in this series is 6-2 against the spread since 1990. ... Texas Tech is 1-6 against the spread in the second of two road games. ... The winner will be in first place in the Big 12 South Division. Stars to watch: Sure, Ricky Williams gets all the headlines (see why below), but Texas Tech has an excellent receiver in Donnie Hart (31 catches, 656 yards and seven touchdowns). The Red Raiders will try to line him up against Aggie cornerback Jay Brooks, a redshirt freshman. ... However, the rest of Texas A&M's "Wrecking Crew" unit is quite formidable, led by linebackers Dat Nguyen and Warrick Holdman. Nguyen and Holdman are the top two tacklers on the team. Last week against Baylor, Holdman had six tackles, three sacks and three pass breakups. Also, expect hard-hitting safety Rich Coady to help cover Hart. Sleepers to watch: Texas Tech senior cornerback Darwin Brown is one of the best cover cornerbacks in the country. ... Texas A&M receiver Chris Cole (25 catches, 410 yards and three touchdowns) is the Aggies big-play receiver. What to watch: Will Texas A&M's defense, which allows 164.7 yards per game, be able to control the nation's third-best runner? Ricky Williams (214 rushes, 1,168 yards, 5.5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns) averages 166.86 yards a game. ... Can Texas Tech rebound from last week's loss to Colorado, 19-17, a game the Red Raiders could have won? They commited three major turnovers and allowed some big plays down the stretch. Have the Red Raiders learned their lesson? Prediction: Texas Tech won six in a row, then lost its first game last week; meanwhile, Texas A&M lost its first game, then won six in a row (excluding the forfeit). Texas Tech has a nice record, but I'm not impressed by anybody that it has beaten. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has beaten Nebraska at home, where this game is. I know the trends in this series say Texas Tech, but I'm saying Texas A&M. Texas A&M 27, Texas Tech 17. Back
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6 Florida State (6-1) at No. 20 Georgia Tech (5-1) Notes: The Seminoles have won the past six meetings by an average of 34 points. Only one game, a 29-24 victory in 1992, was decided by less than 30 points. ... Average score over the past five years - Florida State 44, Georgia Tech 5. ... Since 1992, Georgia Tech is 1-4-1 against the spread against the Seminoles. ... Georgia Tech last beat Florida State in 1975, 30-0. The two teams, though, didn't play each other from 1976-91. Stars to watch: Florida State quarterback Chris Weinke has thrown 149 consecutive passes withouth an interception. As a matter of fact, Weinke (105 of 217 for 1,798 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions) hasn't been intercepted since the horrific North Carolina State loss, when he threw six. Weinke's favorite target is stud receiver Peter Warrick (38 catches, 773 yards and seven touchdowns). ... I know last week we featured Georgia Tech receiver Dez White (31 catches, 775 yards and eight touchdowns), but how can you ignore what he did last week against Virginia - six receptions for 243 yards and three long touchdown catches? White is the only Georgia Tech receiver with 10 or more catches this year. Sleepers to watch: While Florida State tailback Travis Minor (77 rushes, 350 yards, 4.5 yards per carry and two touchdowns) gets all the press, Jeff Chaney (94 carries, 441 yards, 4.7 yards per carry and four touchdowns) has the higher rushing totals. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the sprained ankle Minor suffered against USC on Sept. 26. Minor should be back against Georgia Tech. ... Yes, I know we have profiled him a lot this year, but Georgia Tech quarterback Joe Hamilton (80 of 143 for 1,440 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions) is hard to ignore. A win here would cement the junior as the best quarterback in the ACC. What to watch: How healthy is Florida State? Linebacker Demetro Stephens (broken hand) and free safety Dexter Jackson (hamstring) are expected to play this week, after not starting last week. Linebacker Lamont Green (elbow) will be out until at least the Virginia game on Nov. 7. ... Can Georgia Tech's defense, which gave up 600 yards to Virginia last week, come up big this week? Compared to Florida State, the Yellow Jackets defense has given up nearly twice as many yards per game (412.8 to 214.1) and points per game (24.0 to 12.1). ... Georgia Tech's defense, though, has scored in five straight games and has the sixth-best turnover margin in the country at plus-10 ... Georgia Tech's offense averages 40.8 points a game and has 41 scored or more points in its last five games. Florida State averages only 31.4 points a game. ... Florida State kicker Sebastian Janikowski (16 of 20 field goals) is tops in the nation, averaging 2.29 field goals per game. Prediction: Each week, Georgia Tech seems to do it with mirrors and lots of points. The question is: Can they score 40 points against Florida State, which is No. 1 in total defense and No. 6 in scoring defense. For the record, Georgia Tech is No. 92 in total defense and No. 54 is scoring defense. How could I take Georgia Tech in this game? I don't know, but I predicted Virginia by two touchdowns last week and lost. Florida State hasn't looked sharp on the road (24-7 loss at N.C. St., 24-10 win at Maryland and 26-14 win at Miami, Fla.), and that might be enough for Georgia Tech to cover. Florida State 28, Georgia Tech 23. Back
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No. 22 Tulane (-20) at Rutgers - Noon - The last time these two teams met in 1995, Tulane (5-0) and Rutgers (3-3) had a combined record of 6-16 that year. Both teams have improved since then, although Tulane a lot more. The Green Wave is led by senior quarterback Shaun King (83 of 133 for 1,253 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions), who is fifth in the country in passing efficiency with a 170.2 rating. Last week against Louisville, King threw for 173 yards and three touchdowns with a broken left wrist. He now has 48 career touchdown passes, passing the old school mark of 46 set by Terrence Jones. Rutgers, though, also has improved, beating Army at home and Pittsburgh on the road. And while Tulane is the better team, they are not good enough to be a three-touchdown favorite on the road. I like the Scarlet Knights to keep it close, and maybe get an upset. Tulane 23, Rutgers 20. No. 1 Ohio State (-27) at Northwestern - Noon, ESPN2 - Ohio State (3-0 in the Big 10; 6-0 overall) has outscored its opponents 86-15 over the past two games. Northwestern (0-4 in the conference; 2-5 overall) has scored a total of 80 points in its last six games. Ohio State has won 20 straight against Northwestern, who hasn't beaten the Buckeyes since the year before I was born - 14-10 in 1971. Of the 20 straight Buckeye wins against the Wildcats, only one - 14-10 in 1994 - has been by less than 20 points. I see history repeating itself. Ohio State 38, Northwestern 7. Side note: Watch the linebacker battle between Northwestern's Barry Gardner and Ohio State's Andy Katzenmoyer. The much-hyped Katzenmoyer gets all the press, but Gardner gets all the tackles. Gardner leads the Wildcats with 113 tackles, 63 more than safety Mike Nelson in second-place. Katzenmoyer has 36 tackles, one behind team leaders, safety Damon Moore and cornerback Antoine Winfield. Back
to the list No. 11 Georgia (-1) at Kentucky - 12:30 pm, Jefferson Pilot - This battle of cats vs. dogs should be fun to watch. With a win, Kentucky (2-2 in the SEC; 5-2 overall) will establish itself as a Top 25 team and a major bowl contender, while a Georgia (3-1 in the SEC; 5-1 overall) victory will add weight to the Georgia-Florida game next week in Gainesville. This game offers tremendous match-ups, such as the following:
The only impressive conference win for both teams is a victory at LSU. Other than that, both schools have lost to an SEC powerhouse (Georgia at home against Tennessee, 22-3, and Kentucky at Florida, 51-35), and have beaten up on the lower half of the SEC. Kentucky, though, also has a disappointing loss at Arkansas. One key may be how well Georgia runs the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 945 yards, averaging 157.5 yards a game, but more than half of those yards (481) came in their first two games. Another 222 yards came against winless Vanderbilt. Georgia coach Jim Donnan said this week that highly touted freshman running back Jasper Sanks may play more Saturday. Sanks, a 6-foot, 228-pound former Parade All-American, ran for 57 yards on nine carries against Vanderbilt last week, including a 28-yard scamper. He was academically ineligible last season and came into fall practice this year 25 pounds overweight. He later injured his right ankle and had some wisdom teeth pulled. The trends suggest Kentucky. Georgia is 4-7 against the spread vs. Kentucky since 1987, and the home team in the series is 7-3 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. The problem with picking this game is that both teams are young and inexperienced to big-game pressure, so you don't know how the players will react. I'm going to side with the home team and the trends in a thriller. Kentucky 34, Georgia 31. Iowa State at No. 4 Kansas State (-35) - 2:10 pm - It's homecoming for Kansas State (3-0 in the Big 12; 6-0 overall) and a whoppingcoming for Iowa State (0-3 in the conference; 2-4 overall). Kansas State has won seven of the last eight in the series, including the last four by an average of 25 points. The Cylcones have not won in Manhattan since 1988, when everyone but the Wildcats did. Kansas State should have no problem extending its 14-game winning streak and its 44-game streak against unranked opponents at Wagner Field. Back
to the list Army at No. 18 Notre Dame (-22) - 2:30 pm, NBC - Notre Dame (4-1) is 21-1 against the service academies since 1986. And this year's Army (2-4) team doesn't appear to be much of a challenge. Notre Dame leads the series 35-8-1 and haven't lost to Army since 1958. Notre Dame 40, Army 15. North Carolina State at No. 16 Virginia (-10 1/2) - 3:30 pm, ABC - With last week's shocking 41-38 loss to Georgia Tech, Virginia (3-1 in the ACC; 5-1 overall) is beginning its fade early this year. The Cavaliers had a 21-point lead in the third quarter last week and then gave up 24 unanswered points in less than 1 1/2 quarters to lose. Ah, classic Cavaliers. And with North Carolina and road games at Florida State and Virginia Tech still on the docket, major bowl hopes are flickering in Charlottesville, Va. Meanwhile, North Carolina State (2-1 in conference; 4-2 overall) has had its own ups, followed immediately by downs. The Wolfpack lost to Baylor and Georgia Tech on the weeks after upseting Florida State and Syracuse, respectively. And with four of its last five on the road, big bowl hopes are diminishing in Raleigh, N.C. So while this game may appear to salvage the winner's season, at least temporarily, it actually may just be delaying the inevitable. As for the game, I like the match-up of N.C. State receivers 6-1 Terry Holt (41 catches, 901 yards and seven touchdowns) and 6-0 Chris Coleman (24 catches, 467 yards and two touchdowns), against Virginia's smallish cornerbacks, 5-10 Antwan Harris and 5-11 Dwayne Stukes. Of course, Virginia's All-World safety Anthony Poindexter will be lurking in the backfield, giving support. N.C. State is 5-1 against the spread in the past six games against Virginia, and the visitor is 9-3 against the spread in the past 12 games in this series. Virginia wins, N.C. State covers. Virginia 24, N.C. State 20. Back
to the list No. 9 Wisconsin (-6 1/2) at Iowa - 3:30 pm, ABC - Wisconsin (4-0 in the Big 10; 7-0 overall) continues to roll through the Big 10, and now running back Ron Dayne looks like he is finally on track. Last Week, Dayne ran for a season-high 190 yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries in Wisconsin's 37-3 thumping of Illinois. This week, Dayne will face an Iowa defense, led by stud defensive lineman Jared DeVries, that is only 59th in the country against the run, giving up an average of 148.1 yards per game. Meanwhile the Badgers are first against the run, allowing only 72.3 rushing yards per game. And that ranking doesn't seem in danger, considering Iowa (2-2 in the conference; 3-4 overall) has the 10th-WORST running game in the country, getting only 93.7 yards a game on the ground. Looks like a blowout, right? Well, it might be but something happens to Wisconsin when they play Iowa. The Badgers have won just 12 of 35 in Iowa City. And last year, Wisconsin beat Iowa for the first time in 21 years, ending an 18-game losing streak. This week, I'm ignoring the history and going with the Badgers. Wisconsin 30, Iowa 10. Miami, Fla., at No. 13 West Virginia (-5) - 3:30 pm, CBS - Both teams are coming into the game off of bye weeks, but West Virginia (1-0 in the conference; 4-1 overall) is healthier and happier. That's because the Mountaineers get back star running back Amos Zereoue (thigh bruise), stud linebacker Gary Stills (broken kneecap) and defensive lineman Charlton Forbes. Last year, Zereoue torched Miami for 206 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-17 West Virginia at the Orange Bowl. Plus, it is West Virginia's homecoming game at Mountaineer Field, a tough place for visitors, even though Miami is 4-1 there. Meanwhile, excluding the Rutgers "game" on Oct. 3, which Miami won 53-17, the Hurricanes (1-1 in the conference; 3-2 overall) haven't won since defeating Cincinnati on Sept. 12. Unless Miami's special teams come up huge, a possibility, I don't see the Hurricanes getting it done this week because West Virginia is happy, healthy and fresh. West Virginia 35, Miami 14. Back
to the list No. 2 UCLA (-15) at California - 3:30 pm, ABC - For the second time this year, California (2-1 in the Pac-10; 4-2 overall) plays host to a top-five team. On Sept. 12, it lost to then-No. 4 Nebraska, 24-3. The last time California had a team this highly ranked in Berkeley, Calif., Troy Aikman and his No. 2 Bruins beat the Golden Bears, 38-21, in 1988. This year, UCLA (3-0 in the Pac-10; 5-0 overall) comes into the game a little banged-up. Tailback DeShaun Foster will miss three to four weeks after he sprained the medial collateral ligament in his left knee last week. Foster, who was the team's leading rusher (53 carries, 308 yards, a 5.3 yards per carry and four touchdowns), scored the Bruins first two touchdowns last week in their thrilling 41-38 overtime win against Oregon. Jermaine Lewis (60 carries, 285 yards, 4.8 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns), who was the starting tailback before a one-game suspension two weeks ago, will take Foster's place. Of course, UCLA also will have Cade McNown (81 of 149 for 1,425 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions). UCLA's offense will be challenged by California's defense, which leads the Pac-10 in total defense (35th in the nation), allowing 321.8 yards a game, and in scoring defense (26th in the nation), surrendering 18.7 points a game. The Golden Bears also are sixth-best in the country in turnover margin, snatching 17 turnovers this season while losing 10. If the Golden Bears have any hope for an upset, its defense will need to win the game for them because the offensively-challenged team will have a tough time against UCLA's hard-hitting defense. However, I think California's defense is up to the task, and I think UCLA is due for a let down after major wins at Arizona and home against Oregon. I don't see an upset, but I do see a Bruin scare. UCLA 23, California 15. Alabama at No. 3 Tennessee (-16) - 3:30 pm, CBS - The traditional "Third Saturday in October" game between Alabama (2-2 in the SEC; 4-2 overall) and Tennessee (3-0 in the conference; 5-0 overall) is a week late this year. For 66 straight meetings, starting in 1928, these two schools met on the third Saturday in October. This week, the Volunteers will face Alabama's freshman quarterback, Andrew Zow, who hasn't lost as a starter since middle school. Zow has made two starts at Alabama, defeating Mississippi and East Carolina, and 40 starts at Union County High School in Lake Butler, Fla., winning all of them. While at Union County High, he also won three state championships. Something tells me that in all those starts he hasn't faced a defense like Tennessee's. Tennessee comes into this game with the nation's 10th-best scoring defense. In five games, the Volunteers have allowed only 69 points, 33 of which were from its first game against Syracuse. Meanwhile, Alabama doesn't seem like it will threaten that ranking with the nation's 73rd-best scoring offense. Meanwhile Alabama will be without its leading tackler, free safety Kelvin Sigler, who is out for the season with a torn lateral collateral ligament in his knee. Sigler leads the team with 43 solo tackles. Interesting stat: Tennessee is 11-2 coming off bye weeks under coach Phillip Fulmer, but just 1-5 all-time against Alabama after a bye. Despite that, I like Tennessee to continue its SEC success this year. Tennessee 24, Alabama 7. Back
to the list No. 24 Mississippi State at LSU (-9) - 6 pm, ESPN2 - Mississippi State (3-0 in the SEC; 5-1 overall) is ranked and undefeated in the SEC, while LSU (1-3 in the conference; 3-3 overall) has lost three straight SEC games. Yet LSU is nine-point favorites. Why? Well, Mississippi State has hadn't much success at "Death Valley," which is a tough place to play in as a visitor at night. The Bulldogs have lost six straight against LSU and have won only once at Tiger Stadium in its past seven games there. However, Tiger Stadium under the lights hasn't been that inimidating as Georgia and Kentucky have both won there this year. As a matter of fact, LSU doesn't seem quite as intimidating as they did earlier in the season, when they won their first three games. They have lost three straight since then. Both teams have excellent running backs. The Bulldogs have senior James "J.J." Johnson (123 carries, 755 yards, 6.1 yards per carry and six touchdowns), who is 11th in the nation in rushing, averaging 125.83 yards per game. LSU's Kevin Faulk (107 carries, 678 yards, 6.3 yards per carry) is 19th in the country, averaging 113.00 yards game. LSU wins when Faulk runs well. He has garnered 446 yards in the first three games, all wins, but has been held to only 232 yards in the three losses. I think Faulk will get back on track against the Bulldogs' rushing defense, which is 60th in the nation in run defense. LSU will beat Mississippi State, who are ranked for the first time this season, but will not cover. LSU 21, Mississippi State 16. USC at No. 12 Oregon (-8) - 6:30 pm - Not only does Oregon (2-1 in the Pac-10; 5-1 overall) have to recover from its heartbreaking loss at UCLA last week, the Ducks have to do so without its leading rusher, tailback Reuben Droughns (112 carries, 824 yards, 7.4 yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns), who is out for the season with a broken bone in his right ankle. Herman Hoching (27 carries, 177 yards, 6.6 yards per carry and two touchdowns) and Derien Latimer (26 carries, 101 yards, 3.9 yards per carry and two touchdowns) will have to fill Droughns void. Of course, Droughns void will put more pressure on quarterback Akili Smith (88 of 157 for 1,639 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions), who is more than capable of handling it. He is the second-best quarterback in the country in passing efficiency with a 176.5 rating, a half-point behind the leader, Syracuse's Donovan McNabb at 177. However, this week, Smith has to play behind a banged-up offensive line. USC (3-1 in the conference; 5-2 overall), on the other hand, has looked good and bad - in just the past two weeks. The Trojans allowed California to score 22 unanswered points in the second half to lose at home two weeks ago, 32-31; meanwhile last week, they looked impressive at Washington State and had a big second half to win 42-14. The Trojans have enough playmakers on defense, with players like linebackers Chris Claiborne and David Gibson, and cornerback Daylon McCutcheon, to get the game close. The question is do they have an offense that can do the same? The USC offense averages nearly a 100 yards less a game in both rushing and passing as compared with Oregon. This also is a tough game to call, but I like USC with the points. Barely. Oregon 38, USC 31. Back
to the list No. 17 Colorado (-8) at Kansas - 7 pm, Fox Sports Net - How does Colorado (3-1 in the Big 12; 6-1 overall) continue to win? The offense is 84th in the country in total offense and 57th in scoring offense. Plus, the Buffaloes have been hit hard with injuries, losing 15 players for a total of 48 games. Yet, they still have a chance to win the Big 12, which could be the best conference in the country. Meanwhile, Kansas (0-5 in the conference; 2-5 overall) has had their difficulty in the Big 12 this year, losing all five conference games by an average margin of nearly 18 points a game. Colorado has won 12 of the last 13 meetings with Kansas, including last season's 42-6 killing. However, this is Kansas' homecoming, and the Jayhawks have played well at home recently. They went 5-1 at home last year, and are a deceiving 1-2 at home this year. Kansas played Texas A&M tough, losing 24-21, and lost to Oklahoma State, 38-28, after the game was tied 28-28 in the fourth quarter. Colorado isn't a dominating team, which is why I think the Buffaloes won't cover the eight points on the road. Colorado 22, Kansas 17. No. 23 Virginia Tech (-20) at Ala. Birmingham - 7 pm - Temple? You've got to be kidding me, Virginia Tech (5-1). Temple? Last week, as I'm sure you know, Virginia Tech lost 28-24 to Temple and to a freshman walk-on quarterback, killing the Hokies best start since 1967 and hurting their chances for a third Big East Conference title in four years. Virginia Tech tries to rebound this week against weak Alabama Birmingham (2-4), which ranks 88th in total offense and 63rd in scoring offense, before battling conference foes West Virginia and Syracuse. The Hokies should have backup quarterback Dave Meyer back after missing the past two games with a separated shoulder. Nick Sorensen, who went from quarterback to safety back to quarterback, has played adequately for injured starter Al Clark and Meyer. Last week against Temple, he went 14-of-24 for 143 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The unknown in this game is how the Hokies will react to last week's loss, especially if they start to look ahead to their upcoming Big East games. And despite Alabama Birmingham's record and rankings, they have played well at home, winning twice and losing 39-37 to Kansas. Now Virginia Tech is much better than Kansas, but 20 points still seem like a lot to lay. Virginia Tech 34, Alabama Birmingham 20. Back
to the list Northeast Louisiana at No. 16 Arizona (-33 1/2) - 10 pm - Arizona (6-1) has four of its final five game at home, none of them easier than this week's game against Northeast Louisiana (2-4). The Indians may be the worst team in Division I-A. They are ranked 93rd out of 112 Division I-A teams in scoring offense, 101st in total offense, 101st in scoring defense and 107th in total defense. Of course, last week I suggested that Temple may be the worst team in Division I-A and look what they did. However, I don't see history repeating itself this week. Back
to the list The Associated Press, SportsTicker, The Sporting News College Football yearbook, Preview Sports College Football preview, Phil Steele's 1998 College Football Preview, Sportsform and Petersen's Bob Griese's College Football contributed information for this article. |
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