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A Whole New Bowl Game By George Stahl NEW YORK (AQB)--23 bowl games. Check that: 1 championship game and 22 revenue-generating exhibitions. Really, with the Bowl Championship Series formula producing another solid championship contest (Florida State vs. Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl), what do the other 22 bowl games determine? Who's third? fourth? 46th? What is the function of the 22 meaningless bowls other than to bring in money for the respective schools and NCAA? Does the NCAA consider them a reward for a good year? If that's the case, it's nice to see that the NCAA praises teams who end up winning one more game than they lose. Take the Aloha Bowl (please!), which pits 6-5 titans Arizona State and Wake Forest. Now, we all know why interest remains in those games - gambling. Think about it: If you didn't attend Arizona State or Wake Forest, why would you bother to watch those two schools play each other on Christmas? Few sane reasons remain other than you have a couple bucks on the game, are in an office pool or, like me, set yourself up for mocking by making picks on a web site. Ah, but you can't criticize me for my performance in the final weekend of the regular season. I pulled out a 4-1 record against the spread that week, nudging my regular-season mark above .500 to a pleasant-looking 106-105-5. In case you weren't following (and why not?), I was above .500 the whole year until the penultimate weekend, when a nasty 4-10-2 score dropped me below my stated goal. Of course, now that I won one more game than I lost, the NCAA rewarded me by allowing me to pick the bowl games. Straight-up, I also went 4-1 in that final weekend, bringing that record to 147-69, for a winning percentage of 68%. That's below my preseason goal of 70% but, as I have mentioned, I don't pick games with lines of 30 or more points either straight-up or against the spread. That rule, obviously, hurts my straight-up record. (Click here to see the previous Saturday Selections.) You'll notice that the format for my previews and picks is different from the regular season. Instead of overloading you with reams of stats and worthless information, I've set up links to other sites, which will overload you with stats and worthless information. The links - to sites with slightly larger budgets and resources than ArmchairQB.com - will do a better job of keeping you informed of the latest news and analysis than AQB could. However, I hope to do a better job of picking the games than those other sites. Then again, I thought I could pick 70 percent of the games straight-up during the regular season. Currently, my previews run through the intriguing Penn State-Texas A&M match-up in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 28. I will update my bowl previews throughout the next two weeks, so please check back often. Happy Holidays. Click on a particular game to see my preview and pick, or just scroll down the page. All times Eastern. All rankings AP. All picks are for entertainment purposes only. Saturday, Jan. 1 No.
24 Arkansas (7-4; SEC No. 3)
Selection: Two four-loss teams meet in the Cotton Bowl for the first time since 1952, but that doesn't take away from this renewal of an old SWAC rivalry - Arkansas and Texas. Arkansas and Texas have played each other 73 times but none since 1991. In 1969, the two squads participated in what was called the "game of the century," when No. 1 Texas beat No. 2 Arkansas, 15-14. This year's teams have been marked more by inconsistency than greatness. Arkansas was 6-0 at home, where the Hogs beat Tennessee, but 1-4 on the road, where they lost 38-16 to Mississippi. However, the Hogs only road win came at - you guessed it - the Cotton Bowl against SMU. Arkansas, despite the success of quarterback Major Applewhite and receiver Anthony Lucas (who had minor knee surgery Dec. 10 but is expected to play), is at its best when it's able to run the ball - and that won't be easy against Texas' defensive line anchored by studs Aaron Humphrey and Casey Hampton. Texas, meanwhile, lost its first game of the season against North Carolina State and its last two against Texas A&M and Nebraska. In the final two losses, the Longhorns had a difficult time getting its offense moving, mainly because quarterback Major Applewhite didn't have any time to throw the ball. Texas, which has said that it will play heralded freshman quarterback Chris Simms for a little bit, needs to give its quarterbacks some time against an Arkansas defense ranked 15th in the nation in total defense and 20th in scoring. However, the Hogs will be without defensive coordinator Keith Burns, who was hired as Tulsa's head coach. If Arkansas can run the ball and force some turnovers (the Hogs were second in turnover margin in the SEC), the Razorbacks have a shot of upsetting Texas. However, I see the Longhorns shutting down Arkansas' running game, led by freshman tailback Cedric Cobbs, and edging its former SWAC rival in a game "closer than the experts think." Texas 27, Arkansas 23. Back
to the list No.
21 Georgia (7-4; SEC No. 3)
Selection: This match-up of four-loss teams, the second of the day, features two of the country's most exciting quarterbacks - Georgia's Quincy Carter and Purdue's Drew Brees. Expect both quarterbacks to have huge days against the worst defense in the SEC (Georgia) and the worst pass defense in the Big 10 (Purdue). Fortunately for college football fans, both quarterbacks already have said that they are coming back next season. Brees, who finished fourth in the Heisman voting, threw for 3,531 yards and 21 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Amazingly, five of those picks were returned for touchdown. Purdue's offense, which ranked eighth in the country, can run the ball as successfully as it can throw it. Carter, meanwhile, threw for 2,713 yards and 17 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Although Carter's passing ability has improved in his two years at Georgia, the Bulldogs will need to run the ball - and keep Purdue's offense off the field - to have success against the Boilermakers. Both teams, trying to return to earlier glory in the two toughest conferences in the country, had higher expectations entering the season but both couldn't get past the elite of their respective conferences. Georgia lost to Florida and Tennessee, while Purdue lost by a total of 16 points to Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. A win here would help ease the pain of those earlier losses. Georgia probably has more speed and talent, but Purdue has the more consisent offense. Give the edge to the Boilermakers in an early New Year's Day shootout. Purdue 38, Georgia 31. Back
to the list No.
17 Georgia Tech (8-3; ACC No. 2)
Selection: If the Outback Bowl between Georgia and Purdue doesn't produce enough offensive fireworks for you, then check out this one between Georgia Tech and Miami. Georgia Tech, thanks largely to its outstanding quarterback, Joe Hamilton, led Division I-A in total offense, was the only team to average more than 500 yards per game and finished second in scoring, averaging almost 41 points per game. Much of that is due to Hamilton, who completed 203 of 305 passes for the season, or 66.6 percent, for 3,060 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He finished second in the country in passing efficiency with a 174.15 rating. Overall, the senior accounted for 35 touchdowns this season. Hamilton is at his best when coming back in the fourth quarter. He engineered fourth-quarter comebacks to beat North Carolina, Duke and Georgia, and almost did the same against Florida State, Virginia and Wake Forest. Because of the Yellow Jackets potent offense, Tech coordinator Ralph Friedgen won the Broyles Award, given to the nation's top assistant college football coach. Georgia Tech has been held under 20 points only once in the last 27 games and have scored 40 or more points 13 times during that period. Tech, though, faces a tough Hurricanes defense that has allowed only one passing touchdown in 23 quarters. Overall, Miami's defense ranks second in the Big East behind Virginia Tech in rushing defense and pass defense efficiency. The biggest problem for Tech is its own defense, which finished No. 100 out 114 programs in total defense, surrendering 413.8 yards a game. Tech's D also allowed more than 30 points an outing on average. In addition, the Yellow Jackets were last in the ACC in quarterback sacks and forced just 12 turnovers, which was last in the nation. Miami, on the other hand, led the Big East in turnover margin by forcing 35 turnovers. The Hurricanes, playing in their first New Year's Day bowl since 1995, have a true freshman at quarterback. Ken Dorsey has taken over for the injured Kenny Kelly and has been impressive. He led Miami to wins in the final three games (Rutgers, Syracuse and Temple) this season by a total score of 155-13. Miami has played a difficult schedule this season and won't be intimidated by Tech's high-flying offense. All four of Miami's losses were to bowl-bound teams that finished a combined 40-5 and are ranked in the top 15. I think the Hurricanes will struggle, as everyone does, against Hamilton, who is playing his last college game. Eventually, though, Miami will take control. Miami 34, Georgia Tech 24. Back
to the list No.
10 Florida (9-3; SEC No. 2)
Selection: Two teams with great defenses and questions at quarterback meet in what should be a low-scoring Citrus Bowl that marks the debut of Bobby Williams as head coach of Michigan State. The longtime MSU assistant replaced Nick Saban, who left for the greener pastures of LSU. Williams was a long shot for the job but got it after an overwhelming show of support from players and fellow coaches. As a matter of fact, all nine MSU assistants decided to stay with Williams. That should make the transition from Saban to Williams as smooth and easy as possible. There's no change of coaches at Florida, but there is a change of heart by head coach Steve Spurrier, who wondered at a recent news conference whether he was too tough on his team this year. He also said that all the seniors who contributed this season will get their starting jobs back. That means Doug Johnson, who's fully recovered from a shoulder problem, will start instead of Jesse Palmer. But how effective will Johnson be against a tough Michigan State defense that was fifth in the nation in rush defense but vulnerable to the pass? Florida's defense, meanwhile, was ninth against the run and 30th in total defense. The Gators defense will face a sputtering Michigan State offense led by inconsistent quarterback Bill Burke. Williams will use backup Ryan VanDyke if Burke is ineffective. If the game is close, neither team has an advantage in special teams because both have solid units. Many questions surround this game: Will the Spartans support for Williams translate to success on the field? Which quarterback tandem will play better: Johnson/Palmer or Burke/VanDyke? Can MSU stop Florida's passing game? Will either team be able to run against these two top 10 rushing defenses? Finally, who will win? The key, I think, is Burke. If he can eliminate the costly mistakes and turnovers that has plagued him throughout his career, then Michigan State should win a close one. Michigan State 20, Florida 16. Back
to the list No.
22 Stanford (8-3; Pac 10 Champion)
Selection: Let's play Who Wants To Win A Rose Bowl. Your question is: How do you beat Wisconsin if you are Stanford? The possible answers are: A. Hope your potent passing offense outscores Wisconsin Against most teams, especially those in the Pac 10, that's not a bad idea. However, against Wisconsin's fifth-ranked pass defense, that might be a problem. When Stanford played Oregon State's ninth-ranked pass defense, the Cardinal only scored 21 points. That won't be enough against Wisconsin. Oh, and did I mention that Stanford's All-American receiver and Pac 10 offensive player of the year, receiver Troy Walters, dislocated his right wrist in practice this week and will miss the game. If A isn't the answer, then maybe it's b... B. Stop Ron Dayne Stanford had the fourth-worst total defense in the nation and was only 58th against the run, and you expect The Cardinal to stop the all-time Division I-A rushing leader and defending Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne? Remember, Stanford gave up a 200-yard rushing day this season to a quarterback (Washington's Marques Tuiasosopo). Dayne, who averaged 203.5 yards in Wisconsin's final four games, rushed for 1,834 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. He actually has rushed for over 200 yards more than the entire Stanford team combined. Oh, and did I mention that Stanford's first-team, all-conference linebacker, Willie Howard, will miss the game because of a torn ACL in his right knee, which he suffered in the meaningless Notre Dame game. C. Hope Wisconsin freshman quarterback Brooks Bollinger starts acting his age. Unlikely. Since Bollinger took over, Wisconsin has averaged 37.8 points per game. Stanford, which has a plus-10 turnover ratio, intercepted 17 passes this season; however, Bollinger has only thrown two all season. Of course, you don't have many opportunities to screw up when you are averaging 11 passing attempts a game, which is Bollinger's average over the past five weeks. D. Pray. That's about it. The Big 10 has won three straight Rose Bowls, six of the past seven and Wisconsin should have no problem expanding those totals. Wisconsin 37, Stanford 17. Back
to the list No.
5 Alabama (10-2; Bowl Championship Series)
Selection: Two very similar teams meet in what should be a dandy nightcap to a long day of bowl games. Alabama and Michigan both feature balanced offenses led by big-time running backs and underrated quarterbacks. On the other side of the ball, both teams also have strong run defenses but are vulnerable to the big passing play. Alabama's offense is led by stud running back Shaun Alexander, who ran for 1,399 yards, had 323 yards receiving and scored 24 touchdowns. He can run inside and has the speed to separate from tacklers once he breaks free. The Tide's quarterbacks - sophomore Andrew Zow and redshirt freshman Tyler Watts - have had their ups and downs individually at Alabama but have developed into a dependable duo. It helps that they have the versatile Alexander to dump the ball off to, and the speedy Fred Milons to go deep. Alabama's offense is effective because of a veteran offensive line, anchored by Outland Trophy winner Chris Samuels. However, Samuels might miss the game because of a sore knee. That would be a huge blow for the Tide, who have to face one of the best front sevens in college football. The Wolverines secondary, though, has been a problem, finishing 71st in the country in pass defense. Expect Alabama to try to exploit Michigan deep. The Wolverine offense, meanwhile, likes to ride the A-train, Anthony Thomas, who ran for 1,257 yards and scored 16 touchdowns. He will be facing an Alabama defense that ranked second in the country in rushing yards. Michigan might have more success passing the ball with underrated quarterback Tom Brady, whose solid play forced coach Lloyd Carr to keep backup quarterback and heralded sophomore Drew Hanson on the bench. Brady, a fifth-year senior, threw for 16 touchdown and only six interceptions. More importantly, though, he always seemed to make the big play when needed. Brady will attack an Alabama secondary that has gotten better as the season has progressed and played very well against Florida in the SEC Championship. This rematch of the 1997 Outback Bowl, which Alabama won 17-14, should be a close, hard-fought contest. However, I think Alexander, who is the best player in the game, will make the big play in the fourth quarter to win it for Alabama. Alabama 24, Michigan 20. Back
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No.
3 Nebraska (11-1; Bowl Championship Series)
Selection: This year's Fiesta Bowl pits two teams who have won or shared the national championship in four of the past five seasons. It also matches two top-six squads that easily could have been playing for the national championship. Instead, Nebraska and Tennessee meet in what should be a rough and tough football game. The Huskers and the Vols both rely on strong running games to move the ball. Nebraska's option attack is ranked fourth in the country, while Tennessee's running back duo of Travis Henry and Jamal Lewis rated 20th. However, both offenses face terrific run defenses. Nebraska's "Blackshirts" are ranked sixth in the nation against the run, while Tennessee is eighth. Nebraska depends on rover Mike Brown, who led the team in tackles, to help stop the run, while Tennessee features a terrific front seven. If both teams are forced to pass, then Tennessee has the advantage. Although Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch led all quarterbacks in rushing with 817 yards and was the Big 12 co-offensive player of the year, he didn't have to pass much. That's the main reason why the Huskers' ranked 107th in passing offense. Tennessee quarterback Tee Martin, although not statistically impressive, has made the big play, the key pass when needed. Nebraska's pass defense, though, ranks second in the nation. If Martin starts the game throwing well, that should loosen up Nebraska's defense and give Tennesee's running game room to work. Overall, Tennessee has more dimensions on offense, which could be a key to victory. Another key is whether Nebraska can hold onto the ball. The Huskers have lost 24 of 49 fumbles this year, and Tennessee's defense has the speed and the strength to force and recover turnovers. This is an important game for both squads. Nebraska sees this game as the start of its 2000 national championshio campaign, while Tennesee will be saying goodbye to a group of stars, on both offense and defense, that has led the team to a national championship and a 22-2 record over the past two years. Nebraska's defense is extremely tough, ranking in the top seven nationally in every major defensive statistic. However, Martin has found a way to win nearly every game he has started at Tennessee. He and the Vols, though, come up just short here but keep it close enough to cover. Nebraska 23, Tennessee 21. Back
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1 Florida State (11-0; Bowl Championship Series No. 1)
[REMINDER: Join ArmchairQB.com Tuesday night for a live, in-game review of ABC's coverage of the Sugar Bowl.] Selection: Much has been written about this game, so there's not much left for me to add other than what I'll be watching for Tuesday night. Virginia Tech rush offense vs. Florida State The Hokies have to run the ball well against Florida State to win - no ifs, ands or buts. Everybody is talking about how great Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick is - and he's very good - but the truth is that the Hokies have run the ball nearly three times more than they have thrown it (559 rushes vs. 199 pass attempts). As a matter of fact, only six Division I-A teams have attempted fewer passes than Virginia Tech's 199 attempts. The point is that Virginia Tech doesn't want to get into a situation where it needs Vick to throw the ball in order to beat Florida State. Despite leading Division I-A in passing efficiency, Vick's impressiveness has come as much from his running (110 rushes for 580 yards and eight touchdowns) as it has from his passing (90 of 152 for 1,840 yards and 12 touchdowns). He has thrown the ball more than 17 times in only two games this season, both times completing less than 50 percent. Overall, Virginia Tech's rush offense is ranked eighth in the nation, averaging a mighty 253.9 yards on the ground. Junior tailback Shyrone Stith (226 attempts for 1,119 yards and 13 touchdowns) was first-team All-Big East. However, the Hokies are facing the 10th-best rush defense in Florida State, which yields only 98.8 yards per game on the ground. It's the best run defense the Hokies have faced by far; meanwhile, the Seminoles already have faced, and beaten, three top 18 rushing offenses (No. 12 Maryland, No. 13 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Virginia). Florida State's pass offense vs Virginia Tech's pass defense The Seminoles feature the most-experienced quarterback in the nation (Chris Weinke) with the best group of receivers in the nation (Peter Warrick, Ron Dugans and Marvin Minnis). Weinke, a junior despite being 27 years old, completed 232 of 377 attempts for 3,103 yards and 25 touchdowns. His favorite target was, of course, Peter Warrick (71 receptions for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns); however, Dugans (43 catches for 644 yards and three touchdowns) and Minnis (19 receptions for 257 yards and three touchdowns) came up big during Warrick's absence. Overall, the Seminoles had the 12th-best passing offense in the nation, averaging 302.9 yards a game. Virginia Tech has the seventh-best passing defense but has not faced a passing offense ranked in the top 30 all year. Tech's defense is predicated on using eight- and nine-man fronts to get pressure on the quarterback and leaving its talented cornerbacks (Anthony Midget and Ike Charlton) in man-to-man coverage. The question is can Weinke et al exploit Tech's gambling but highly effective defense? Intangibles This game features arguably the two best special teams in the nation. Expect both to make at least one big play; the winner probably will get two big plays. ... Although it's hard to predict how the 1 1/2-month layoff will affect either team, Florida State has the edge in having gone through it last year. ... Florida State is a solid plus-eight in turnover margin, while Virginia Tech is a modest plus-three. ... The two teams had three common opponents - Clemson, Virginia and Miami. Virginia Tech won those games by an average of 35-9, while Florida State only won by a 27-15 edge. Selection Expect a lot of sloppiness in the first quarter as both teams work out the rust and butterflies. Assuming neither team gains a major advantage on the scoreboard during that period, the game should come down to the match-ups. If that's the case, I like Florida State. I think Virginia Tech won't be able to run the ball consistently against the Seminoles, forcing Vick to throw more. At which point, the redshirt freshman will begin to show his true colors. On the other side, Weinke and Warrick have the potential to exploit Tech's aggressive defense. Florida State would have won the championship last year if Weinke wasn't hurt. Plus, Warrick wants to redeem himself after last year's disappointing performance against Tennessee in the title game and this year's embarrassing incident at Dillard's. Florida State grabs an early lead that knocks Tech off its running game, forcing Vick to throw more. That eventually leads to a commanding Seminole win and head coach Bobby Bowden's second national championship. Florida State 31, Virginia Tech 20. [REMINDER: Join ArmchairQB.com Tuesday night for a live, in-game review of ABC's coverage of the Sugar Bowl.] Back
to the list CBS Sportsline, CNNSI.com, ESPN.com., Fox Sports Online, the SportsTicker and The Associated Press contributed information for this article. Click here to see George's review of the college football preview magazines.
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