|
A Whole New Bowl Game By George Stahl NEW YORK (AQB)--23 bowl games. Check that: 1 championship game and 22 revenue-generating exhibitions. Really, with the Bowl Championship Series formula producing another solid championship contest (Florida State vs. Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl), what do the other 22 bowl games determine? Who's third? fourth? 46th? What is their function of the 22 meaningless bowls other than to bring in money for the respective schools and NCAA? Does the NCAA consider them a reward for a good year? If that's the case, it's nice to see that the NCAA praises teams who end up winning one more game than they lose. Take the Aloha Bowl (please!), which pits 6-5 titans Arizona State and Wake Forest. Now, we all know why interest remains in those games - gambling. Think about it: If you didn't attend Arizona State or Wake Forest, why would you bother to watch those two schools play each other on Christmas? Few sane reasons remain other than you have a couple bucks on the game, are in an office pool or, like me, set yourself up for mocking by making picks on a web site. Ah, but you can't criticize me for my performance in the final weekend of the regular season. I pulled out a 4-1 record against the spread that week, nudging my regular-season mark above .500 to a pleasant-looking 106-105-5. In case you weren't following (and why not?), I was above .500 the whole year until the penultimate weekend, when a nasty 4-10-2 score dropped me below my stated goal. Of course, now that I won one more game than I lost, the NCAA rewarded me by allowing me to pick the bowl games. Straight-up, I also went 4-1 in that final weekend, bringing that record to 147-69, for a winning percentage of 68%. That's below my preseason goal of 70% but, as I have mentioned, I don't pick games with lines of 30 or more points either straight-up or against the spread. That rule, obviously, hurts my straight-up record. (Click here to see the previous Saturday Selections.) You'll notice that the format for my previews and picks is different from the regular season. Instead of overloading you with reams of stats and worthless information, I've set up links to other sites, which will overload you with stats and worthless information. The links - to sites with slightly larger budgets and resources than ArmchairQB.com - will do a better job of keeping you informed of the latest news and analysis than AQB could. However, I hope to do a better job of picking the games than those other sites. Then again, I thought I could pick 70 percent of the games straight-up during the regular season. Currently, my previews run through the intriguing Penn State-Texas A&M match-up in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 28. I will update my bowl previews throughout the next two weeks, so please check back often. Happy Holidays. Click on a particular game to see my preview and pick, or just scroll down the page. All times Eastern. All rankings AP. All picks are for entertainment purposes only. Saturday, Dec. 18 Utah
(8-3; Mountain West No. 2)
Selection: Two teams very familiar with each other meet in Las Vegas Bowl VIII. Utah, a WAC refugee, had developed a nice rivalry with Fresno State before splitting off with seven other schools to form the Mountain West. This is the third meeting this season between teams from the WAC and the Mountain West, with the WAC team winning the first two games. These two coaching staffs also are quite familiar with each other. Fresno State head coach Pat Hill played for Utah head coach Ron McBride at UC-Riverside and later assisted him at Utah. In addition, McBride's daughter is married to Fresno State assistant John Baxter. This should, no doubt, contribute to an interesting holiday season for the family. Meanwhile, Fresno State quarterback Billy Volek should make this an interesting game. Volek, probably the best unknown quarterback in college, set NCAA single-season and career records for pass interception percentage. He has thrown only 12 interceptions in 934 career attempts, for a percentage of 1.28, easily beating the previous record of 2.29. Volek, who had only three interceptions this year compared to 30 touchdowns, enters the game without an interception in his last 178 attempts. Fresno State, though, will face the best pass defense in the Mountain West. Utah's secondary have intercepted 12 passes, returning three for touchdowns. Plus, the Utes can put pressure on the quarterback, leading the Mountain West with 37 sacks. Utah's quarterback is expected to be T.D. Croshaw, filling in for the injured Darnell Arceneaux, who is still suffering the effects of a nasty concussion earlier this year. Croshaw has played well in Arceneaux's absence, but this is a tall order for the junior-college transfer walk-on. Croshaw will probably spend a lot of time handing the ball off to senior tailback Mike Anderson, who averaged 97.7 yards a game. The first-team All-MWC tailback should be effective against Fresno State's mediocre defense. Despite the Bulldogs' questionable defense, I like Volek to spring the upset in his final college game. Fresno State 34, Utah 30. Back
to the list
No.
20 East Carolina (9-2; Conference USA No. 2)
Selection: Unlike the Las Vegas Bowl, which pits former conference foes, the inaugural Mobile Alabama Bowl pairs future Conference USA rivals Texas Christian and East Carolina. TCU will join ECU in C-U in 2001. The Mobile Alabama Bowl, the only new bowl game this year (like we needed another one), is due in large part to ESPN's Mike Gottfried, who has worked with the city over the past few years to make this event a reality. East Carolina and Texas Christian enter the game after remarkable seasons. East Carolina has had to survive one hurricane and beat another team of Hurricanes to get here. TCU, on the other hand, is in its second straight bowl, which is the same amount of bowls the team played in the 32 seasons before head coach Dennis Franchione. TCU is in the game, mainly because of stud running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who averaged 172.5 yards per game and gained an NCAA record 406 yards in one game against Texas El-Paso. East Carolina's run defense, 41st in the nation, is the weakest part of an otherwise excellent defense. As a matter of fact, first-year defensive coordinator Tim Rose was named one of five semifinalists for the 1999 Broyles Award, given to the best assistant coach in college football. He will need to use his skills to craft a defense that could halt Tomlinson. East Carolina's solid running offense and solid pass offense form an above-average attack, which averages 406.3 yards per game. The Pirates face TCU's unique 4-2-5 defense, which highlights the abilities of safety Reggie Hunt, a Jim Thorpe Award candidate, and defensive end Aaron Schobel Jr., who had 10 sacks this season. Texas Christian pulled off the biggest upset of the bowl games last year, beating USC in the Sun Bowl 28-19 as 16-point underdogs. For that game, I had predicted a 38-14 USC win. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice. TCU, behind the running of Tomlinson, upsets East Carolina. TCU 27, East Carolina 21. Back
to the list
Arizona
State (6-5; Pac 10 No. 4)
Selection: Two teams who probably saved their coaches' jobs by earning this bowl bid meet in the Aloha Bowl. Both teams, though, needed a win in their final game to get here. The difference is Arizona State was expected to be in a bowl before the season started, while Wake Forest is a surprise. Who can figure Arizona State? This is a team that beat a hot Huskie team in Seattle but also lose to New Mexico State at home. That's right, New Mexico State! Wake Forest, meanwhile, had its first winning season in seven tries but only went 3-5 in ACC games this year. The Deacons feature a solid running game and a dependable defense that finished second in scoring in the ACC. Wake Forest, though, is only 101st in the nation in passing offense. The Deacons face an Arizona State defense that, because of injuries, is vulnerable against the pass but still quick enough upfront to disrupt a running attack. On the other side, the interesting match-up will be Arizona State's trio of running backs (J.R. Redmond, Delvon Flowers and Gerald Green) against a good Wake Forest run defense. Also, keep an eye on Arizona State tight end Todd Heap, who has caught more than a quarter of Arizona State's 189 pass completions. Arizona State is the more talented team. The question is whether this up-and-down team will be up for this game. I don't think it matters, though, because the Sun Devils won't need to be on top of their game to handle Wake Forest. Arizona State 31, Wake Forest 20. Back
to the list Oregon
State (7-4; Pac 10 No. 5)
Selection: Two former AFC West coaches, both in their first year back at school, have had impressive seasons in reviving two dormant programs. Oregon State head coach Dennis Erickson, who coached the Seahawks last year, ended the school's 28-season losing streak and brought the Beavers their first bowl appearance since 1965. Hawaii's June Jones, who coached the Chargers last year, transformed an 0-11 team into a bowl team, matching an NCAA-record for the greatest one-year turnaround. A closer inspection shows that Hawaii was helped by playing in the weakened WAC; having nine of their 12 games at home, where the Rainbows have one of the best home-field advantages in the nation; and by beating only two Division I-A teams with winning records - Fresno State and the Big West's Boise State. The Rainbows faced two Pac 10 teams this year and lost to both of them. USC stomped on them, 62-7, in the season opener, and then last-place Washington State dampened Hawaii's season by beating the Rainbows 22-14 in the final game. Oregon State beat Washington, 27-13, but lost to USC at a time during the season when USC was playing well and the Beavers weren't. Hawaii credits its turnaround to the run-and-shoot offense that Jones brought to the islands, which has raised Hawaii's total offense ranking to 20th nationally from 100th last season and its scoring ranking to 35th from 112th last year. Hawaii certainly has a lot of talent at the skill positions, including second-team All-WAC quarterback Dan Robinson (eighth in the nation in total offense) and All-WAC receiver Dwight Carter (1,253 receiving yards), but the Rainbows most effective weapon may be their All-beef, All-WAC tackles Adrian Klemm (6-4, 312 pounds) and Kaulana Noa (6-5, 316 pounds). However, Hawaii is facing the best defense the team has seen all year. Oregon State led the Pac 10 in passing defense, allowing only eight touchdowns through the air. The Beavers defense played better as the season progressed, surrendering only 72 points over the last five games this year, the fewest of any team in the conference over that span. The Beavers offense is one of the best in the nation, ranking fourth in the Pac 10 and 11th in the nation in total offense. Look for sophomore tailback Ken Simonton, who had a school-record 1,329 rushing yards this season, to cut up a weak Hawaii run defense. The Beavers should be able to move the ball easily against Hawaii. Oregon State is 3-2 against Hawaii, although the teams haven't met since the Beavers beat the Rainbows, 23-21, in 1989. Oregon State also beat Hawaii 47-27 in the Pineapple Bowl in 1948. That score, I think, fits well here. Oregon State 47 Hawaii 27. Back
to the list
No.
11 Marshall (12-0; MAC champion)
Selection: Two of the best quarterbacks and passing attacks in the country meet in what should be a highly entertaining aerial circus. Marshall and BYU's passing offenses ranked sixth and seventh in the nation, respectively, and their senior quarterbacks, Marshall's Chad Pennington and BYU's Kevin Feterik, are among the best in the country. Pennington, a Heisman finalist, is considered the better NFL prospect and is expected to be one of the first - if not, the first - quarterback selected in next year's draft. He threw for a mere 3,799 yards and 37 touchdowns this season. Pennington also led the team in an impressive comeback earlier this month in the MAC championship, helping the Thundering Herd recover from a 23-0 deficit late in the third quarter to win 34-30. The win earned Marshall its third straight MAC championship and its third straight Motor City Bowl invitation. It also preserved Marshall's 16-game winning streak, the best in the nation. Overall, Marshall's 113 wins in the 1990s is the most of any team in any decade. BYU, meanwhile, didn't just stumble but rather tripped and fell in its two losses to Wyoming (31-17) and Utah (20-17) to end the season. The losses cost BYU the outright Mountain West championship. Despite Feterik's success this year, BYU will need a big game from true freshman running back Luke Staley, who missed those final two games with a bruised calf. Without him, BYU was unable to get an effective running game going. BYU needs - and should have - a healthy Staley against a Marshall defense ranked second in the nation in points allowed per game and eighth in total yardage allowed. The Herd also had a plus-13 turnover margin and led the nation with 24 pass interceptions. Western Michigan, though, did have some success running the ball against Marshall in the MAC championship. On the other side, Marshall should have an easier time moving the ball against BYU's less imposing defense, despite the presence of stud linebacker Rob Morris. The Herd also don't have to worry about head coach Bob Pruett leaving. The 57-year-old turned down a higher-paying Houston job to stay at Marshall, where he recently signed a seven-year extension. Last year, BYU was the final victim in Tulane's undefeated season. The Cougars lost 41-27 to Tulane in the Liberty Bowl, and I think that same score could appear here. Marshall 41, BYU 27. Back
to the list
No.
13 Penn State (9-3; Big 10 No. 4)
Selection: A big-name match-up for a small-time bowl. These two teams at one time had dreams of a national championship, especially Penn State, but both took different roads to this second-tier bowl game. Penn State collapsed in November like a house cards in front of a fan, losing its final three games after a 9-0 start. That was the first time the school had lost its last three games since 1914, a couple years before head coach Joe Paterno started there. Texas A&M, on the other hand, ended the season by beating rival Texas in an emotional game that came days after 12 people died while building the school's annual bonfire. The win brought together the A&M campus and team. Overall, A&M is probably playing its best football of the season. The Aggies running game has returned under Ja'Mar Toombs and D'Andre "Tiki" Hardeman, and its defense is back to its normal standard. However, because of their struggles earlier in the season, the Aggies feature only one first-team, All-Big 12 member - punter Shane Lechler, who is probably the best punter in the country. The Aggies, though, will have tough time moving the ball against Penn State, one of the best defenses in the country. This defense features stars at all positions - Butkus Award winning linebacker LaVar Arrington, Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Courtney Brown, a defensive end, and stud cornerback David Macklin. Plus, the defense will be extra pumped to play well in the Alamo Bowl, which represents the final game for legendary defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky, who is retiring. Paterno, though, is going nowhere. The 73-year-old (as of Dec. 21) has never had a four-game losing streak, and the Lions are 4-0 after three straight losses in his 34 years as head coach. Paterno needs to revive his ailing offense, which has nearly ground to a halt in the three losses. Paterno - like he needs my advice - has to tell his team to remember last year's Alamo Bowl, when Kansas State came in listless. The Wildcats, who entered the game after having their national championship hopes dashed in the Big 12 championship game by Texas A&M, promptly lost 37-34 to Purdue in the Alamo Bowl. Texas A&M, though, has not had much recent success in bowl games. The Aggies are just 2-5 in bowls this decade, although one of A&M's wins came against perennial Big 10 giant Michigan in the Alamo Bowl in 1995. Because both of these teams have dynamic defenses and highly inconsistent offenses, I see a low-scoring contest that comes down to a defensive stop to win the game. And what better way than that to send out Penn State's Sandusky. Penn State wins, A&M covers. Penn State 17, Texas A&M 13. Back
to the list CBS Sportsline, CNNSI.com, ESPN.com., Fox Sports Online, the SportsTicker and The Associated Press contributed information for this article. Click here to see George's review of the college football preview magazines.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Today's Lineup | Sports
Pages | Features | Newsstand
| Sports Links
Speak Out | Mailing
List | Scouting Dept. | About
Us | Home
Contact us at Info@ArmchairQB.com
