|
A Whole New Bowl Game By George Stahl NEW YORK (AQB)--23 bowl games. Check that: 1 championship game and 22 revenue-generating exhibitions. Really, with the Bowl Championship Series formula producing another solid championship contest (Florida State vs. Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl), what do the other 22 bowl games determine? Who's third? fourth? 46th? What is their function of the 22 meaningless bowls other than to bring in money for the respective schools and NCAA? Does the NCAA consider them a reward for a good year? If that's the case, it's nice to see that the NCAA praises teams who end up winning one more game than they lose. Take the Aloha Bowl (please!), which pits 6-5 titans Arizona State and Wake Forest. Now, we all know why interest remains in those games - gambling. Think about it: If you didn't attend Arizona State or Wake Forest, why would you bother to watch those two schools play each other on Christmas? Few sane reasons remain other than you have a couple bucks on the game, are in an office pool or, like me, set yourself up for mocking by making picks on a web site. Ah, but you can't criticize me for my performance in the final weekend of the regular season. I pulled out a 4-1 record against the spread that week, nudging my regular-season mark above .500 to a pleasant-looking 106-105-5. In case you weren't following (and why not?), I was above .500 the whole year until the penultimate weekend, when a nasty 4-10-2 score dropped me below my stated goal. Of course, now that I won one more game than I lost, the NCAA rewarded me by allowing me to pick the bowl games. Straight-up, I also went 4-1 in that final weekend, bringing that record to 147-69, for a winning percentage of 68%. That's below my preseason goal of 70% but, as I have mentioned, I don't pick games with lines of 30 or more points either straight-up or against the spread. That rule, obviously, hurts my straight-up record. (Click here to see the previous Saturday Selections.) You'll notice that the format for my previews and picks is different from the regular season. Instead of overloading you with reams of stats and worthless information, I've set up links to other sites, which will overload you with stats and worthless information. The links - to sites with slightly larger budgets and resources than ArmchairQB.com - will do a better job of keeping you informed of the latest news and analysis than AQB could. However, I hope to do a better job of picking the games than those other sites. Then again, I thought I could pick 70 percent of the games straight-up during the regular season. Currently, my previews run through the intriguing Penn State-Texas A&M match-up in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 28. I will update my bowl previews throughout the next two weeks, so please check back often. Happy Holidays. Click on a particular game to see my preview and pick, or just scroll down the page. All times Eastern. All rankings AP. All picks are for entertainment purposes only. Wednesday, Dec. 29 Kentucky
(6-5; SEC No. 7)
Selection: This game would have been a lot more intriguing if it were played last year when quarterbacks Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb, the top two picks in the past NFL draft, led these two offenses. Instead, Kentucky and Syracuse enter the Music City Bowl having lost a combined seven of their last nine games. Syracuse is the bigger offender, losing four of its last five, including a shocking defeat to 29-point underdog Rutgers and a 62-0 blowout loss to Virginia Tech. Overall, the Orangemen were outscored by a total of nearly 100 points in their final four losses. Add to that three players who were stabbed in a bar altercation, and Syracuse is a team in disarray and without much confidence. Nonetheless, the Orangemen are a bowl team, and they can thank their defense for that. Despite the free fall at the finish, Syracuse's defense ranked 13th in the nation, 28th against the run and 18th in pass efficiency. The biggest problem for Syracuse is its offense. The quarterback rotation of Troy Nunes and Madei Williams has not worked. Nunes probably played better this season, but neither scares a defense. Running back Dee Brown is the Orangemen's only offensive weapon. Offense is not a problem for Kentucky, which had the top passing game in the SEC. Quarterback Dusty Bonner quickly made people forget about Couch by leading the SEC in completions, attempts, yards, touchdown passes and passing efficiency. Bonner's favorite target was tight end James Whalen, a former walk-on who broke the NCAA record for tight end receptions with 90. The Wildcats, though, stink at running the ball, finishing 110th out of the 114 Division I-A teams. That's mostly due to a weak offensive line, which has allowed 53 sacks. Kentucky's O-line is going to have a tough time against Syracuse's tough defensive front. Kentucky's defense was last again in the SEC, allowing 29.4 points per game. The Wildcats, though, did force more turnovers than any other team in the SEC. A huge Kentucky fan base is expected to attend the nearby bowl game, making this practically a home game for the Wildcats, who are appearing in back-to-back bowls for the first time since 1983-84. Syracuse is talking about a big return to glory against Kentucky, but the Orangemen did the same thing before the Miami game and lost 45-13 in the season finale. Look for turnovers and a couple big passing plays to key a Kentucky victory in one of the more dull bowl games of the year. Kentucky 20, Syracuse 14. Back
to the list Kansas
State (10-1; Big 12 No. 3)
Selection: Neither team is exactly thrilled to be here as both had their sights on bigger and better bowl games. However, Kansas State and Washington each suffered disappointing losses Nov. 13 that knocked them down the bowl game food chain. Kansas State's 41-15 loss to Nebraska, the Wildcats' only defeat of the year, knocked K-State out of the BCS picture and out of a January 1st game. Meanwhile, the Huskies overtime loss to a poor UCLA squad killed their Rose Bowl chances. So whichever coach can use that disappointment to the team's advantage will have an edge. Both coaches already have done an excellent job just getting their respective teams to this position. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder replaced eight starters on offense, including stud quarterback Michael Bishop, in leading his team to its second straight double-digit win season. On the other hand, Washington coach Rick Neuheisel had a talent-deprived Washington squad thisclose to a Rose Bowl game. The Holiday Bowl will break the coaching tie between Neuheisel and Snyder. Each coach won two games against the other when Neuheisel was at Colorado. Neuheisel will have to continue to work his magic if the Huskies are to have a shot against Kansas State's terrific defense, which ranks first in the nation against the pass, second in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. Although Washington doesn't have too many marquee players, it does have a Marques, as in stud quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo, who became the first player to throw for 300 yards and rush for 200 yards in the same game (against Rose Bowl participant Stanford) earlier this year. Actually, Washington's lack of of big-time talent is surprising for a bowl team. The Huskies didn't have a single player named to the first-team all-Pac-10 squad since going 1-9 in 1969. However, the Huskies will be facing a team with tons of talent, most of it on defense, which is led by linebacker Mark Simoneau. The Wildcats, though, have not been able to replace Bishop. The offense has struggled throughout most of the season, forcing Snyder to pull junior quarterback Jonathan Beasley at times for backup Adam Helm. For Washington to have a shot, the Huskies must hold onto the ball and wear out the Kansas State defense. Fortunately for Washington, the Huskies led the Pac 10 in time of possession at 32:57 a game. In six of its seven wins this year, Washington won the time of possession battle but lost that battle in each of its four losses. Washington was one of the better teams in a very sad Pac 10 this season, and I can see them hanging in against Kansas State for a while. However, expect some late turnovers - Kansas State led the Big 12 in turnover margin, while Washington had the most fumbles in the Pac 10 - to change that. Kansas State 34, Washington 17. Back
to the list
Boise
State (9-3; Big West champion)
Selection: This could be one of the most exciting, offensive, fun-to-watch bowl games this year - if you can stand staring at the blue turf at Bronco Stadium. Both teams have dynamic offenses and weak defenses, setting the potential for a 90-point ballgame. Boise State, who will join the WAC beginning in 2001, is new to the bowl scene after having been a Division I-AA power through 1996. But to make it easier for the school, its first bowl game is basically a home game because Bronco Stadium is the home field of the Boise State Broncos, who were undefeated there this season. Overall, Boise State enters the game having won five straight and scoring at least 33 points in each game during that streak. While Louisville quarterback Chris Redman will get a lot of the attention before this game, and deservingly so, Boise State quarterback Bart Hendricks is also a stud, having won the Big West offensive player of the year after scoring 30 touchdowns - 22 passing, eight running - this season. Redman, on the other hand, has thrown 29 passing touchdowns to 13 interceptions. The Unitas Golden Arm Award winner, given to the nation's best senior quarterback, completed 317 of 489 passes, or 64.8 percent, for 3,647 yards. The senior is one of three NCAA Division I-A quarterbacks to throw for more than 12,000 yards in his career and holds I-A records for pass attempts (1,679) and completions (1,031). If Redman is the straw that stirs Louisville's offense, then senior running back Frank Moreau represents the ice that makes it cool and refreshing. Moreau, with 1,289 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, led the Conference USA in rushing (128.9 yards per game) and had the eighth-best average in the nation. Despite being on the other side of the Rockies and Mississippi River, Louisville coach John L. Smith is very familiar with Bronco Stadium and Boise State. Smith coached at rival Idaho for six years, registering a 5-1 record against the Broncos. He later was the head man at Utah State, winning two of three against Boise State and playing in the inaugural Humanitarian Bowl. Smith has done a terrific job at Louisville, winning seven games in consecutive seasons for the second time in school history. It's the Cardinals first back-to-back bowl appearances ever. Both defenses are ugly, although Louisville's is downright gruesome. Boise State's defense has played better at home, where opponents complete just 42.3 percent of their passes. I'm sure the blue field distorts their vision. Overall, Boise State's defense is statistically better, but Louisville has had to face tougher competition in Conference USA. Unlike other schools that would be unfamiliar with Boise State and its turf. Smith knows the Broncos and the stadium very well. That, along with Redman playing his final college game, should help Louisville win an offensive battle. Louisville 41, Boise State 35. Back
to the list Virginia
(7-4; ACC No. 4)
Selection: Two teams who each won four of their last five games to garner a bowl bid enter the MicronPC.com Bowl, and both match up well against the opponent. Virginia, led by stud senior running back Thomas Jones, should find the holes against an Illinois defense ranked 82nd in the nation against the run; meanwhile, Illini quarterback Kurt Kittner (22 touchdowns vs. four interceptions) won't be scared by a Virginia pass defense that finished 89th in the country. Kittner, a sophomore, faces a Virginia defense plagued by preseason suspensions and injuries. However, middle linebacker Yubrenal Isabelle and defensive ends Travis Griffith and Boo Battle should be back for the bowl game. If given the time, though, Kittner will pick apart Virginia's weak secondary. Jones, an All-America running back, is the real deal on and off the field. Besides being the first ACC player ever to run for 200 yards and collect 100 yards in receptions in the same game (he had four 200-yard rushing games overall), Jones graduated in just three years and never missed a day of practice in his career. This is no doubt that this game is the last one for the senior Jones. However, rumors are swirling that legendary Virginia coach George Welsh, who has won seven or more games in each of the last 13 season, may retire. Welsh, though, has never won a game in Florida in his 28-year coaching career. Virginia sends him and Jones out in style in a high-scoring contest. Virginia 35, Illinois 31. Back
to the list Mississippi
State (9-2; SEC No. 5)
Selection: Can you imagine a team with three more wins and the best defense in the country being nearly a field goal underdog to team from a weaker conference? That's the case in the Peach Bowl, and it speaks volumes about the magic that first-year head coach Tommy Bowden has generated at Clemson. It also speaks volumes about Mississippi State's miserable offense, which ranked eighth in the SEC in total offense and ninth in scoring offense. The starting quarterback, sophomore Wayne Madkin, had more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (10). Mississippi State made it to the Peach Bowl with a favorable schedule and an incredible defense, which features eight senior starters and finished first in the country in total defense and rushing defense. The Bulldogs were the only SEC team not to face conference stalwarts Florida, Tennessee or Georgia. Clemson, meanwhile, was only 6-5 but was the only team to lose to all three Division I-A schools that finished the regular season undefeated (Florida State, Virginia Tech and Marshall). And in all three losses, the Tigers were in position to win the game in the second half. Overall, Clemson lost four of its five games by four points or less. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was 5-1 in games decided by five or fewer points. Clemson may be a year ahead of itself - nearly every key performer returns next year. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is a senior-laden squad trying to give head coach Jackie Sherrill his first bowl win at State, the team's first bowl win since 1981 and the first 10-win season in school history. If the Bulldogs can the watch the turnovers - Clemson is a plus-9 in turnover margin, while Mississippi State is a minus-1 - then they should be able to pull out one more close win to end the season. Mississippi State 17, Clemson 14. Back
to the list
Boston
College (8-3; Big East No. 3)
Selection: Two teams with questionable resumes meet in the Insight.com Bowl. Boston College beat one team with a winning record (6-5 Syracuse), one I-AA team (Northeastern), two 1-10 teams (Rutgers and Baylor) and four other below-.500 teams. Colorado, on the other hand, played five bowl teams but won only one of those games (Oklahoma). The Buffaloes were inconsistent throughout much of the year, never winning more than two games in a row. Both teams match up well against the other, though. Boston College averaged 177.5 rushing yards per game, good for 28th in the nation, while Colorado allowed 171.5 yards on the ground. The Buffaloes, on the other hand, threw for 273.5 yards per game, and the Eagles allowed 242.2 yards per game. Boston College's defense is vulnerable to speed, so expect Colorado to test B.C. deep with speedy Javon Green and Marcus Stiggers. Neither team excites me in this lame bowl game. Boston College won three of its last four, while Colorado lost two of its last three. But which is more impressive - losing to Kansas State and Nebraska by a total of nine points or beating Syracuse, West Virginia and Notre Dame? When in doubt, go against Colorado head coach Gary Barnett, who has a propensity for letting Northwestern alums like me down. Boston College 27, Colorado 23. Back
to the list Oregon
(8-3; Pac 10 No. 3)
Selection: Two intriguing but relatively unknown teams meet in what should be an entertaining bowl game because both teams are used to playing close contests. Minnesota's three losses have been by a total of 11 points, while five of Oregon's eight conference games were decided on the last possession. Both teams also feature outstanding running backs. Minnesota's Thomas Hamner was second in the Big 10 in rushing with 1,362 yards, while Oregon's Reuben Droughns was all-Pac-10, rushing for 1,139 yards. Oregon is 12-3 in games Droughns plays and 4-4 when he is out. Overall, Minnesota features an above-average offense that relies heavily on the running of Hamner and quarterback Billy Cockerham. The Gophers face an improving Oregon defense, which got better as the season went along, holding each of its final four opponents under 20 points. However, Minnesota has the better defense. The Gophers finished 11th in passing defense and eighth in scoring defense. They face an Oregon offense that remained one of the best in the country, ranking 19th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense, despite splitting time at quarterback between A.J. Feeley and Joey Harrington. Feeley and Harrington benefited from a strong Ducks' offensive line, which yielded only 19 sacks. Minnesota's defense, though, registered 42. With a couple different turns, these two teams easily could have been meeting in the Rose Bowl. Instead, they should offer us a very good Sun Bowl. Oregon has the advantage of playing in its fifth bowl game in six years, while Minnesota is in its first since 1986. Both teams closed the regular season well. Oregon won its last five games, while Minnesota captured its last three, including a huge one against Penn State in Happy Valley. I expect both defenses to hang tough for a while, but eventually Oregon's offensive talents will begin to dominate. The Ducks will prove that they are the best team in the Pac 10. Oregon 27, Minnesota 21. Back
to the list Colorado
State (8-3; Mountain West champion)
Selection: Colorado State, led by senior running back Kevin McDougal, faces a tough Southern Miss defense, which allowed only one 100-yard rusher and even held Nebraska to just 119 yards on the ground. McDougal, who beat out BYU quarterback Kevin Feterik for Mountain West offensive player of the year honors, was seen as the spark for the Rams five-game, season-ending winning streak. McDougal averaged 130 yards rushing in Colorado State's final four wins and 116.4 yards for the season overall. Southern Miss, though, will be a tough defense to crack. The Golden Eagles ranked eighth in the nation in total defense, rush defense and scoring offense. The Eagles three losses were on the road to Nebraska, Texas A&M and Alabama. In those three games, Southern Miss' defense allowed one offensive touchdown to Nebraska and Texas A&M, and two to Alabama (one of which was a four-yard drive after an interception). Both teams have a good mix on offense, but Southern Miss' defense should give an edge to the Golden Eagles, who are playing in their second Liberty Bowl in three years. This is Colorado State's first non-Holiday Bowl appearance since the Freedom Bowl in 1990. Southern Miss 20, Colorado State 10. Back
to the list Mississippi
(7-4; SEC No. 6)
Selection: The last football game of the year, century, millennium or whatever features one of the biggest mismatches of the bowl season - Oklahoma's ninth-ranked passing offense vs. Mississippi's 103rd-best passing defense. The Sooners return to postseason play - this is Oklahoma's first bowl game since 1994 - was due in large part to an aerial assault led by junior college transfer quarterback Josh Heupel, who broke school and conference records with 3,460 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Ole Miss' best pass defense may be an excellent run offense. The Rebels' backfield of Deuce McAllister and Joe Gunn combined for 1,760 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, good for second in the SEC and 25th in the country. Overall, only Alabama's Shaun Alexander had more all-purpose yards than McAllister. Oklahoma's defense got better against the run as the season rolled along but was still vulnerable to allowing the big game. Despite a poor pass defense, Ole Miss has a very good defense overall, finishing fourth in the country run defense and 17th in scoring defense. Both first-year coaches - Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and Mississippi's David Cutcliffe - had successful seasons. Stoops led the Sooners to their first bowl game since 1994, while Cutcliffe has Ole Miss in its third straight bowl game. The Rebels are looking for their first three-game bowl-winning streak since 1958-60. However, Stoops and Cutcliffe enter the game wondering what might have been, because both teams could have had better years and been invited to a better bowl if both had been better at keeping leads. Oklahoma was unable to hold onto double-digit leads in all four of its losses, while Mississippi lost four games by a total of 15 points. In three of those four losses, Ole Miss led in the fourth quarter. One of these teams will hold onto a lead to beat a quality opponent, and I think it will be Mississippi. The Rebels' poor defense will survive Oklahoma's potent passing attack, and I expect McAllister to have a big day vs. the Sooner defense, beginning his 2000 Heisman campaign. Mississippi 37, Oklahoma 35. Back
to the list CBS Sportsline, CNNSI.com, ESPN.com., Fox Sports Online, the SportsTicker and The Associated Press contributed information for this article. Click here to see George's review of the college football preview magazines.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Today's Lineup | Sports
Pages | Features | Newsstand
| Sports Links
Speak Out | Mailing
List | Scouting Dept. | About
Us | Home
Contact us at Info@ArmchairQB.com
