AQB Two-Minute Crystal Ball: It's the Niners

Friends, I’ll begin with an apology to my friend POCONO MATT, a longtime San Fran fan who fears two things: black bears and THE GURU JINX¹.

Tonight, Matty only needs to worry about the latter as I predict that his 49ers will beat the Chiefs and win Super Bowl LVIII, capturing their first championship since the 1994-95 season. Here’s why:

1. San Francisco is the better team. Both franchises have 14 victories, including the playoffs, but the Niners have excelled on offense and defense while Kansas City has had issues in both phases.
   
   You want details? The Chiefs only scored 30 points three times this year and haven’t done it since late November. They’ve only recorded 400 yards of offense four times, just once since late October. And Mahomes & Co. turn the ball over a lot: at least twice in nine of their games.
   
   Meanwhile, the Niners have hit the 30-point mark 10 times and rolled up more than 400 yards on 11 occasions. And they’ve only suffered four multiple-turnover games on offense.
   
   On defense, the Chiefs have played well yet only forced seven turnovers in their past 10 games, and that includes the three vs. the Ravens last week. San Fran has registered twice as many takeaways as KC (14) in that span.
   

2. Trent Williams is playing. As discussed in AQB yesterday, the Niners are 14-1 when their best player is healthy and that spells bad news for the Chiefs. He is the man that makes the San Francisco offense go.
   

3. Kansas City’s offensive line is outmanned. There is rightly much talk about the absence of first-time All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who was replaced last week by Nick Allegretti and will miss the Super Bowl also.
   
   Allegretti is a good run blocker but, against the Ravens, he was bulldozed on passing downs numerous times. San Fran defensive tackle Javon Hargrave² is a massive challenge for Allegretti and KC has to run the ball to give the KC guard confidence and keep “The Grave Digger” away from Mahomes.

   

   Hargrave may be jumping for joy tonight (Photo: Getty)

   That matchup aside, the Chiefs’ chief concern is at offensive tackle as Donovan Smith (LT) and Jawaan Taylor (RT) face uphill battles against Niners defensive ends Chase Young and Nick Bosa, respectively. I can’t wait to see what Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck dial up in an effort to prevent a repeat of the Tampa Bay massacre.

By the way, this season was Reid’s best work in his 25 years as an NFL head coach. The offense struggled and the defense didn’t force turnovers. The receivers led the NFL in dropped passes. Yet here the coach sits with 14 wins and a shot at his third Super Bowl title. Simply brilliant.

But, in spite of Reid’s magnificence and the leadership of Mahomes and defensive tackle Chris Jones, it’ll be tough sledding for the Chiefs this evening against a better football team. Their best hope: run the ball like the underdog Giants did to beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV, giving Mahomes the chance to make some late-game magic.

In the end, it’ll be too much Williams³, too much Christian McCaffrey, too much Deebo Samuel. The other tight end, George Kittle, will show why he’s the best in the game and Kyle Shanahan will make amends for not milking the clock in Super Bowl losses with the Falcons⁴ and Niners.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco win handily but, given KC’s stingy D and the wild card that is Mahomes, it could be tight. Call it Niners, 19-16.

The playoff record stands at 7-5 (.583) with the season at 178-101 (.638).⁵ Thanks for reading this season and enjoy the game!

1. THE GURU JINX is fake news but Matty, a former Middlebury College o-lineman, did indeed stumble across a black bear near his Pennsylvania estate last year, scaring the animal off with a series of guttural noises.

2. San Fran’s other starting defensive tackle, Arik Armstead, is no slouch either, but it seems likely that Hargrave will be the guy most often matched up with Allegretti.

3. “Too Much Williams!” is a cry that has been uttered by many a buffet operator in America’s heartland. Or is it “Too much, Williams!”?

4. Shanahan was famously - infamously? - Atlanta’s offensive coordinator when the team lost its 28-3 lead, and Super Bowl LI, to New England. I chronicled the Falcons’ second-half clock management issues here.

5. The 2022-23 postseason record was 8-5 (.615) including the Super Bowl loss. The 2022-23 overall mark, including playoffs, was 175-107 (.621).