CHAMPIONSHIP CRYSTAL BALL: Anticipating a Day to Remember
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU is all set for three major sporting events: the AFC and NFC championship games and, with apologies to the Rose Bowl, the Weather Grandaddy of them All: The Great Blizzard of 2026.
Call it what you wish - The Snowpocalypse, Snowmaggeddon, etc. - but understand this: no one does panic like the NYC area. THE FAIR CLAUDINE bravely visited Costco yesterday and described the scene like this.
“It was like a series of bar fights,” she explained with astonishment, grimacing as she applied ointment to a four-centimeter gash on her left forearm and pressed a bag of frozen broccoli against her temple. “People were literally wrestling over loaves of bread and jars of Skippy.”
As we battle the nasty weather, my anticipation for football is even greater, with two big-time clashes today. And I’m betting they’ll top the excitement of last weekend’s games1.
First, the #2-seed Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away) visit #1 Denver (15-3, 9-1 home) at 3 pm ET on CBS. The broadcasting crew: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson and Evan Washburn.
I’ll cut to the chase: Washburn’s hair is fantastic. I’m not sure what kind of product he leans on but it’s worth the price of admission.
On a lesser note, I like Sean Payton and the Broncos to win and advance to the Super Bowl, understanding that this prediction is sure to draw the considerable ire of Pats diehards like THE ADMIRAL and CORKY. Please allow me to explain.
Denver has an extreme homefield advantage.
Drake Maye and the New England offense have struggled against top-tier defenses, and the Broncos D is one of the league’s best.
First, let’s tackle point #1. One of the first things a new coach wants to do is to establish an edge at home and, in three seasons under Payton, the Broncos have clearly done that.
Indeed, Denver is 20-7 at home under the former Saints coach, including last week’s victory against Buffalo. The won-loss progression during his tenure: 5-4, 6-2, 9-1. In fact, since midway through the 2024 campaign, the Broncos have won 14 of 15 at Mile High.
That said, the Patriots are undefeated on the road this year so New England won’t be a pushover, even if only one of those wins came against a playoff team2.
On to point #2.
As excellent as the Patriots’ offense - and star sophomore quarterback Drake Maye - have been, they’ve struggled against strong defenses. In fact, they’ve only faced two top 10 units3 this year and haven’t looked crisp against either.
Those two defenses? LA and Houston, each of which sacked Maye five times in the past two weeks, nearly twice NE’s regular season allowed-sack rate (2.76/game). That doesn’t bode well vs. Denver, the league’s #3 unit, which paced the NFL with 68 sacks, 19% more than any other team.
Here are some of Maye’s numbers the past two weeks, a sharp contrast to his regular-season performance:
58.9% completion rate (vs 72% regular season)
4/5 TD-to-Turnover Ratio (vs 31/11 regular season)
224 Passing yards per game (vs 258 regular season)
Two other glaring stats: Maye4 has fumbled six times in the postseason - losing three - and the New England offense has only put 37 points on the board. A repeat effort vs. the red-hot Broncos will put the Pats in a tight spot.
However, as good as Denver’s defense has been, they were 26th in the NFL in forced turnovers5. They did manage to turn it up in the postseason opener against Buffalo, creating five takeaways, and I’m betting there is more of that to come Sunday.
Make no mistake: New England’s biggest edge in this game is Vrabel and the wealth of playoff experience he brings, having competed in six conference title games as a Patriots player and one as Tennessee head coach (2019). And, when you’re up against a longtime success like Payton6, that matters.
I hesitate to pick Denver because THE TRIBECA MULE - who loves the Pats, mayo and Chevy, in that order - may expel me from his flag football coaching staff and cut me off from his extraordinary Beef Wellington7. I beg your forgiveness, my brother.
Could Maye make me eat my words? Of course, he could. Did you see that dime he threw to Kayshon Boutte last week for the clinching touchdown? Good gravy. His arm talent is remarkable and he’s a fierce competitor.
Of course, if that comes to pass, I’ll have just one request for Mr. Maye: a slice or two of Wellington with my crow.
Next, the #5 Rams (14-5, 7-4 away) travel to #1 Seattle (15-3, 7-2 home) at 6:30 pm on Fox. The broadcasters: Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady, Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi.
This is a tough one as the margin of difference between these teams is linguini thin. To wit: they split the 2025 series with Los Angeles (21-19) and the Seahawks (38-37) both winning at home.
If you’re wondering whether the Rams can win in Seattle, consider this: Sean McVay is 12-7 against the Seahawks, with five road victories including a Wild Card triumph in the 2020 postseason. And his QB Matt Stafford is also playing at a very high level.
On January 19, LA led host Seattle 30-14 with 8:22 to go in an eventual overtime loss. Then, they allowed a 58-yard Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown and stumbled offensively, resulting in a 38-37 defeat.
Shaheed’s big play was obviously no fluke. He ignited last week’s rout of the Niners with a 95-yard TD on the opening kickoff and he - and the Rams’ subpar special teams - may pose the biggest threat to McVay & Co. today.
How big of an issue has this unit been for LA? Enough of a problem that McVay fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn - a two-time Super Bowl champion as a Giants linebacker - with just two weeks to go in the regular season. His replacement is Ben Kotwica, the former Army helicopter pilot and Iraq War veteran who has spent 18 seasons as an NFL coach.
The biggest issue for Seattle may be the loss of running back Zach Charbonnet, who rushed for 12 TDs this season but tore his ACL against San Fran. Here’s how offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak - son of Gary - describes the Michigan/UCLA alum:
“I think it needs to be said just how important Zach Charbonnet has been to our team this year and how much we’re going to miss him. When you think about, ‘What is a Seahawk?’ A guy that’s smart, tough, and dependable. That’s Zach Charbonnet. He’s one of the most impressive individuals I’ve been around, and a lot of our success has come because of his leadership this year. We’re gonna miss him.”
I’m betting the loss of Charbonnet will be tough for Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold and their crew to overcome. Let’s call it 27-24, Rams, perhaps in OT. But never fear, Seattle: Mac will be in plenty of games of this magnitude in his head coaching career.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got to massage my lovely wife’s aching left calf, which oddly has been bothering the heck out of her the past 24 hours.
“I’m not sure how I hurt it. Maybe when I karate-kicked that guy in the toilet paper aisle?”
That’s all for this weekend, folks. Enjoy the games and God bless!
LE GURU’s Divisional Round record was 4-0, pushing the postseason mark to 10-1, including Indiana’s win over Miami.
On October 5, the Pats beat Buffalo 23-20 on a late field goal.
In terms of points allowed.
As for Maye, the kid is an excellent player and has the looks of being the long-term quarterbacking solution in New England, no doubt. But he’s piled up numbers against weak competition too. Don’t be surprised if his stats look worse next season but he’s actually a much better player.
Surprisingly, four playoff defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in forced turnovers: New England was in a three-way tie for 19th; the Niners were in a two-way tie for 23rd; and the Broncos and Packers were among four teams tied for 26th.
Payton has coached in four championship games - one as an assistant (2000 Giants) and three as Saints head coach (2006, 2009, 2018).
Both potentially tragic results for yours truly, especially the Wellington.