Championship Crystal Ball: The Established and The Interloper
Championship Crystal Ball: The Established and The Interloper
My friends, it’s perhaps the best weekend of the National Football League season and, as usual, we’ve got The Established and The Interloper.
The Established are three of the league’s bedrock franchises: Baltimore, Kansas City and San Francisco. And The Interloper? It’s those hard-charging Detroit Lions.
The Ravens’ first season was 1996 and they quickly established themselves as a force with which to be reckoned. They’ve made 15 playoff appearances this century with two Super Bowl championships and a playoff record of 17-12. Their corresponding winning percentage (.586) is fourth in league annals, and they’ve only employed three coaches with their current leader, John Harbaugh, in his 16th season.
Harbaugh came to Baltimore from Philadelphia, where he dutifully served under Andy Reid as special teams (1998-2006) and defensive backs (2007) coach for a decade. Then, five years after the young man departed for the Charm City, his old boss was dumped by the Eagles and landed in the City of Fountains, hoping to make a splash.
Philly’s mistake was Kansas City’s fortune as the Chiefs have gone from respectable to dynastic under Reid & Co. When he rolled into town, KC hadn’t won a playoff game in 20 years and fans were at wit’s end, like RIGHT WING MATT on November 7, 2020. Of course, unless you’ve been living under a rock - please say hello to TOMMY BIRD for me - you know what happened next.
Reid took Kansas City to the playoffs in his inaugural campaign of 2013 and got his first Chiefs’ postseason victory two years later, a resounding 30-0 win in Houston. After playoff appearances in the next two seasons, he took the bold step of trading a very good QB (Alex Smith) and replacing him in the lineup with a precocious kid from Texas Tech. Second-year man Patrick Mahomes II was 22 years old.
Paired with Reid, the quarterback has taken Kansas City fans on an unimaginable joy ride with 13 playoff wins, three Super Bowl appearances and two championships in five-plus seasons. Sunday marks his sixth AFC title game in six years at the controls and, at age 28, he shows no signs of slowing down.
San Francisco is no stranger to Championship Weekend with Coach Kyle Shanahan leading the franchise to its third consecutive NFC title game appearance, their fourth trip in six seasons. The Niners tied Green Bay last week for all-time NFL postseason wins (37) and can move past the Pack with a win on Sunday.
That said, a victory over The Interloper will be a tall task as Dan Campbell’s Dee-troit Lions are as feisty as a late-night bean burrito. The man barged into the Motor City like a bull in a China shop, speaking of biting knee caps off and taking “hunks” out of opponents. It was considered comedic at the time but, man, his players have taken on his mentality, and it shows in the passion with which they play.
Passion isn’t often associated with football with Detroit, unless fans are waxing poetic about Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders. The franchise is 28th in postseason win percentage (.409), has employed 13 full-time or interim head coaches in the 2000s and remains the only NFC team to never reach the Super Bowl.
What Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes have done is nothing short of extraordinary and it’s quite possible that they’re building something that will last for years to come.
The Lions do share one significant similarity with the Chiefs, Niners and Ravens: Patience, an enviable trait that is often in short supply in the NFL. Trust me, as I survived the Daniel Snyder regime in DC. Let me know if you want to see the scars.
Kansas City’s front office was patient with Reid in those early couple of years in town. It’s hard to imagine today but many in the football community doubted Reid’s ability to take the Chiefs to the promised land.
When he arrived in 2013, he was coming off of a 4-12 campaign in Philly and hadn’t won a playoff game since 2008. In his first season in KC, the Chiefs blew a 28-point Wild Card game lead against the Colts and then failed to make postseason the next year. If you’re counting, that’s a six-year playoff victory drought for Big Red.
But the Chiefs brass was patient and, my goodness, it has paid off in spades.
The Niners went 10-22 in Shanahan’s first two seasons at the helm, 2017-18, giving the team six straight non-winning campaigns. And the coach’s rough intro to San Fran was on the heels of his Atlanta offense famously failing to hold the lead against Bill Belichick’s Patriots in Super Bowl LI. The Niners were on their third head coach since Jim Harbaugh departed after the 2014 season and Shanahan seemed to be on thin ice.
But the Niners brass was patient and, my goodness, it has paid off in spades.
The Ravens got off to a hot start in John Harbaugh’s first five seasons, making the playoffs each year with three trips to the AFC title game and a Super Bowl win. Then things got bumpy with Baltimore earning just two postseason victories over the next decade while missing the playoffs five times.
The darkest of days - cue Edgar Allan Poe1 - were likely 2013-17 when the Ravens were a middling 41-41, including playoffs, with just a single postseason appearance and two winning records. The franchise then rallied to make the playoffs in four of the next five years but only notched one postseason win.
But the Ravens brass was patient and, my goodness, it has paid off in spades.
The Lions were roundly mocked for hiring Campbell in 2021 - just search the web for gems like these - because some pundits didn’t like his lack of play-calling experience while others felt the new Detroit coach should’ve been a diversity hire. Never mind the fact that Holmes, the GM who hired Campbell, is African American.
Then the Lions promptly started 0-10-1, including a 44-6 pasting from the Eagles at Ford Field, extending their franchise winless streak to 15 games. Detroit was on its way to its fourth straight season of six wins or less and things looked bleak indeed in Motown.
But the Lions brass was patient and, my goodness, it has paid off in spades.
What remains to be seen is if this year’s interloper can build upon a great 2023 and experience long-lasting success, as 2021 new entrant Cincinnati seems poised to do2. Personally, I think the sky’s the limit.
Campbell and Holmes seem like a great pair, Jared Goff seems to have come into his own at quarterback and the offensive and defensive lines are young and quite good. And I haven’t even mentioned wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who will rewrite record books if he stays healthy.
But, first, there’s a game to be played today. And won’t it be fun to see how Lions-Niners shakes out?
The Divisional Round record was 3-1 (.750), improving the postseason mark to 5-5 (.500). The season tally is at 176-101 (.635). Let’s get to it…
SUNDAY - 3 PM, CBS - AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Chiefs (13-6, 7-2 away) at Ravens (14-4, 7-3 home)
These two teams have gone in different postseason directions over the past decade, but Baltimore has clearly been the better team this season. And their reward includes home field advantage today.
The Ravens are notoriously good at M&T Bank Stadium but, as discussed last week, they are far from invincible in their hometown. Three of their four losses occurred at M&T and as last week proved, KC is quite capable of winning a big game on the road.
Health is always magnified this time of year and the Chiefs have a Pro Bowl-sized hole to fill in the heart of their offensive line with star guard Joe Thuney out with an injury to his right pectoral muscle. That’s a chest injury in layman’s terms, folks.
With Thuney out, Kansas City loses one of the league’s top linemen, as well as a guy who has started in five AFC title games in his seven years in the league. And he’s won the conference championship four times, thrice with his former team, New England.
I’ve heard some pundits this week liken the impact of the Thuney injury to the torn knee ligament suffered by then-Chiefs star left tackle Eric Fisher in the 2020 AFC Championship game, but I think it’s an apples to hot dogs comparison.
In 2020, KC shuffled its offensive line at three positions to compensate for Fisher’s injury, creating major communication and performance issues across the o-line in the Super Bowl loss to Tampa3. In sharp contrast, the team is only making one change today, plugging five-year veteran Nick Allegretti into Thuney’s left guard position.
While Allegretti hasn’t played a single snap at left guard4 this year, he is strong, smart and versatile. In fact, the Chiefs o-line depth chart lists him at second string for both guard spots and center. That says a lot about his ability to adapt, as well as the team’s faith in him to get the job done. KC will miss Thuney but not nearly as much as some think.
The bigger factor today may be the rain, which has occurred off and on in Baltimore this weekend and may make an appearance in today’s second half. That may make the run game even more important so that’s definitely something to watch.
There are a lot of signs today that point to a Ravens win. They’re at home5 and have been the better team this year. Lamar Jackson is in a groove resembling the well-worn spot I’ve produced on my sofa. Tight end Mark Andrews returns from injury and the Ravens outstanding defense gets corner Marlon Humphrey, who has been nursing a right calf strain.
Still, I can’t get past this thought: the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, who not only has five AFC title games under his belt but also has played very well against the Ravens in his career6. And he’s an underdog.
Of all the crazy Mahomes stats, this one jumped out at me this morning, courtesy of The New York Post: over the past five seasons, Mahomes is 8-1 when the Chiefs trail by at least seven points in the playoffs. The rest of the NFL is 11-53.
In the end, let’s say Patrick makes one more outstanding play than Lamar and the underrated KC defense holds up. I’ve been flip-flopping all week but just can’t go against Mahomes and Reid. Chiefs, 24-23.
Postseason History
Chiefs (22-21); Ravens (17-12)
Mahomes (13-3); Jackson (2-3)
Reid (24-16); Harbaugh (12-9)
SUNDAY - 6:30 PM, FOX - NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Lions (14-5, 6-3 away) at Niners (13-5, 6-3 home)
I’m excited about Chiefs-Ravens and am really excited about Lions-Niners. Detroit is THE story of the NFL season, in my opinion, and wouldn’t it be amazing if they made it to the Super Bowl after all the years of futility?
Here’s what we know for sure: Dan Campbell’s team won’t play scared, and San Fran is going to have to play very well to win. And I’m convinced that Kyle Shanahan’s team will do just that.
Shanny isn’t often mentioned as one of the league’s best head coaches, but I think he absolutely deserves to be in the discussion. In seven seasons leading the Niners, he’s made four playoff appearances, and, on all four occasions, he’s advanced to the NFC Championship game. That’s an impressive run by the son of former NFL great Mike Shanahan.
In fact, it says here that the younger man is well on his way to outpacing his father’s coaching success. With today’s conference championship game, he moves past his dear old dad in that category with a 4-3 edge. And with the four playoff trips, he is already halfway to the total Mike reached in 20 seasons7 as a head coach.
Of course, the one glaring area where Papa Shanahan has the upper hand is in Super Bowl victories, holding a 2-0 advantage. I think Kyle takes a big step towards cutting into that lead today.
The Niners are ecstatic to have Deebo Samuel back from injury today though you can bet the Lions will be taking as many shots as possible at his right shoulder. San Fran is a different team when he’s in the lineup, plain and simple.
Today’s “X” factors are the lines and quarterbacks. Will San Fran protect Brock Purdy against Aidan Hutchinson and the fierce Lions pass rush? Can Detroit stymie Nick Bosa & Co.? Who does a better job of leading his mates today: Purdy8 or Goff, the one-time NFC Championship game winner with the Rams?
If it comes down to the QBs in the game’s waning moments, I give a slight edge to Goff because of his experience, which includes nine game-winning drives over the past two seasons9. But I don’t think Shanahan, a master of offensive creativity, will let it get to that point.
I’d love to pick the Lions, but I see the more experienced Niners earning a narrow victory. Then it’ll be on to Las Vegas in two weeks in an effort to get Shanahan that elusive first Super Bowl win. Call it San Fran, 29-27.
Postseason History
Chiefs (22-21); Ravens (17-12)
Mahomes (13-3); Jackson (2-3)
Reid (24-16); Harbaugh (12-9)
The name “Ravens,” of course, is a nod to Poe, the famed poet and writer, who lived in the city for a number of years and died there in 1849.
I know Cincy didn’t make the tournament this year but throw an asterisk on it as they narrowly missed the playoffs with Joe Burrow on the shelf for seven games. In the previous two years, the Bengals were 5-2 in the postseason while advancing to the Super Bowl and AFC Championship game, respectively.
This over-shuffling, along with the distraction caused by Britt Reid’s car accident, doomed the Chiefs in the big game. It was probably the easiest Super Bowl to predict that I can remember.
Allegretti has played 79 offensive snaps this season - 65 at center, 11 at right guard and three as a blocking tight end. And, of note and per the graders at Pro Football Focus, he only allowed Patrick Mahomes to be pressured once in 47 pass snaps. That’s pretty good. Plus, he’s a fellow University of Illinois alum and that’s hard to beat.
While it’s not necessarily relevant to today, the host team has won 15 of the past 20 AFC title games. Good teams win at home in big spots.
Per NFL Network, Mahomes is 3-1 against the Ravens with 13 touchdown passes and an average of 379 passing yards per outing. He won’t throw for 379 today but will still bring the juice.
To be fair to the elder Shanahan, he took on the Herculean tasks of coaching the Raiders and Redskins under Messrs. Davis and Snyder, respectively. That’s enough to kill most men. One of the many impressive things about Mike is the multitude of quarterbacks with whom he had success: Elway, Jake Plummer, Gus Frerotte, and Robert Griffin III. His genius was his ability - and willingness - to adapt his offense to suit his QB, instead of the other way around. A lot of coaches aren’t willing to do that.
Interestingly, Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is 4-1 in his brief career against QBs who were drafted #1 overall, per NFL Network. Goff was the #1 overall pick in the 2016 Draft.
Thanks, NFL Network.