DIVISIONAL CRYSTAL BALL: SEPARATING THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF
DIVISIONAL CRYSTAL BALL: SEPARATING THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF
My friends, it’s a big weekend in the National Football League as the pretenders are separated from the contenders, like steak set apart from toast points.
You’ll have to excuse the awkward analogy as I’m only hours removed from a beef bacchanalia that would make a cattle rancher stand up and salute. The event was a night out with pals at the annual Xavier High School Beefsteak Dinner, an amazing evening that featured more mouth-watering meat than one could shake a stick at.
This week, we’ve got four teams that squarely belong in the “meat” camp, perennial contenders like the Bills, Chiefs, Niners and Ravens. Each team won its division this season and all four head coaches have led teams into a conference title game with Kansas City’s Andy Reid (10 trips) the granddaddy of a crew that includes Baltimore’s John Harbaugh (3), San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan (3) and Buffalo’s Sean McDermott (1).1 That’s quite a group.
But what of the Bucs, Lions, Packers and Texans? Where do they fit into the NFL’s version of the Elite Eight?
The top dog is undeniably Dee-troit, the only team in this quartet that was brimming with optimism entering 2023. After all, Dan Campbell’s squad posted its first winning record (9-8) since 2017 and the future looked bright with a young, talent-rich roster including wide receiver Aman-Ra St. Brown, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. Sure, they finished four games out of first place in the NFC North a year ago but, hey, an over-.500 record was measurable progress.
So, while it was conceivable that the Lions could make the playoffs this season, it looked quite unlikely for the rest of this group. Just look at them one by one.
Green Bay went 8-9, missed the playoffs for just the second time in 15 seasons and knew that Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t be back. There was hope surrounding QB Jordan Love and the very young roster, but hope is not optimism.
Houston (3-13-1) completed its third consecutive season with four wins or less and fired a head coach for the third year in a row for good measure. Odds of the Texans succeeding in 2023 were as long as the Chinese buffets my Lehigh pals and I often ransacked in the early ‘90s.
Tampa Bay was 8-9 and won the NFC South by default before Todd Bowles’ team was soundly bounced by Dallas in the playoffs and saw Tom Brady retire. And, in the NFL, no quarterback = no future.
But look at them now, all in the mix for the ultimate prize, Super Bowl champion. And what that reminds me, above all, is the fact that the NFL is truly a year-to-year league. In fact, only eight of 14 playoff participants for the 2022-23 season advanced to the postseason in 2023-24.
Among the teams that missed the tournament this year were the 2022-23 third (Cincinnati), fourth (Jacksonville) and fifth (Chargers) seeds in the AFC. In the NFC, the third-seeded Vikings plus the Giants (sixth) and Seattle (seventh) failed to make the cut. One painfully common thread: quarterback health, or lack thereof, as none of these sad six had their starting QB for all 17 games.2 File that away for 2024-25.
Speaking of health, THE GURU is listing badly as I was hit with an untimely case of misprognosticitis3 last week and stumbled to a record of 2-4 (.333) during Wild Card Weekend. It’s an uphill battle from here on out and the season mark stands at 173-100 (.641).
On the games…
SATURDAY
4:30 PM - ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Houston (11-7, 4-4 away) at Baltimore (13-4, 6-3 home)
The Ravens are a considerable favorite today and, as the AFC’s top seed, that makes sense. They’ve got the odds-on MVP in QB Lamar Jackson and they’re playing in the friendly environs of M&T Bank Stadium, which is always nice.
That said, three of Baltimore’s four losses were at home this season though the team rested some starters for the finale against Pittsburgh. Still, it’s fair to say: the Ravens are not unbeatable at M&T.
The teams met in the 2023 season opener as the host Ravens won the first game decided by a 25-9 score in league history.4 The contest was dominated by defense as neither team gained 300 yards and rookie QB C.J. Stroud averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, his low-water mark for the campaign.
Of course, that was eons ago in NFL terms and Houston is surely a very different team than they were in Week One with a first-year quarterback and freshman head coach in DeMeco Ryans. I think the Texans make life very hard on the Ravens and, if they can keep it close, an upset isn’t out of the question.
In the end, I see Baltimore pulling it out, maybe even with a long ball from Justin Tucker. Call if 20-17, Ravens.
Postseason History
Texans (5-6); Ravens (16-12)
Stroud (1-0); Jackson (1-3)
Ryans (1-0); Harbaugh (11-9)
8:15 PM - FOX
Packers (10-8, 5-5 away) at 49ers (12-5, 5-3 home)
This game pits two of the winningest teams in NFL postseason history with the Pack tied for first with 37 victories and the Niners among three teams with 36 wins.5
I was astonished to learn that Green Bay and San Francisco have met in the playoffs more than any other teams. Here they are, at nine meetings and counting with all of the games occurring since 1995.
Their last face-off was a playoff game just two years ago when the Niners rolled into Lambeau Field and stunned the top-seeded Packers, 13-10, behind a stout defense that stymied Aaron Rodgers and his mates. Could Green Bay turn the tables on top-seeded San Fran today?
I think a Packers’ upset win is certainly possible, but I think it’ll be very difficult. This San Fran team is loaded top to bottom and their offensive and defensive lines will be a lot for Green Bay to handle. Let’s say 30-17, Niners.
Postseason History
Packers (37-25); Niners (36-23)
Jordan Love (1-0); Brock Purdy (2-1)
Matt LaFleur (3-3); Kyle Shanahan (6-3)
SUNDAY
3 PM - NBC
Buccaneers (10-8, 5-4 away) at Lions (13-5, 7-2 home)
No one expected these two teams to meet in the 2023 postseason when the year began, a couple of upstarts led by underrated head coaches.
Some folks still aren’t sure what to make of Dan Campbell because the Lions coach looks like a cross between a Hell’s Angel and an NBA power forward. They think of the “kneecaps” press conference instead of his brilliance in leading and motivating men.
As for Bowles, despite three decades of success as an NFL player and coach, he still isn’t recognized for the brilliant football mind that he is. He’s won Super Bowls as a player (Washington, 1987), personnel executive (Green Bay, 1996) and assistant coach (Tampa, 2021), absolutely undressing Andy Reid’s high-octane Kansas City offense in the latter virtuoso performance.
That leaves us with two men who always feel like they have something to prove, and I think it’ll be a fascinating physical chess match. Methinks the home field is going to be a factor. Lions, 24-22.
Postseason History
Bucs (12-11); Lions (8-13)
Mayfield (2-1); Goff (3-3)
Todd Bowles (1-1); Campbell (1-0)
6:30 PM - CBS
Chiefs (12-6, 6-2 away) at Bills (12-6, 8-2 home)
Andy Reid and Sean McDermott are the only head coaches working this weekend that have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four seasons. The two men also know each other well, coaching together in Philly for a decade and facing off on seven occasions since McDermott arrived in Buffalo in 2017.
The Bills coach owns a 4-3 edge over his former mentor, but Reid and his charges have won both postseason matchups, including the memorable “13-second game” in the 2021-22 season. McDermott was excoriated for that loss, something that must sit in his craw like a piece of steak between two of my incisors.
It’s well known that I’ve been in the tank for Reid for years and long ago placed the man on his rightful pedestal. He is approaching NFL Mount Rushmore status and is an undeniable national football treasure.
Still, I think his team faces an uphill battle tomorrow. This Bills team is on the kind of streak that has defined many a Super Bowl champion and I don’t think Josh Allen is going to let his team lose. Bills, 27-25.
Chiefs (21-21); Bills (19-20)
Mahomes (12-3); Allen (5-4)
Reid (23-16); McDermott (5-5)
It’s apt to call Reid a grandfather as both Harbaugh (1999-2007) and McDermott (2001-10) learned a lot from the man while coaching under him in Philadelphia.
The hardest hit were the Bengals (Joe Burrow), Giants (Daniel Jones) and Vikings (Kirk Cousins), who lost their starting signalcallers for seven, 11 and nine games, respectively. Thanks for the info, Pro Football Reference.
This is a rare illness that, sadly, seems to hit yours truly more often than others. It’s a crippling ailment that often has a domino effect, and I’m not talking about a two-pizzas-for-$10.99 special.
Thanks to The Football Database.
New England is tied with the Packers (37 wins) while Dallas and Pittsburgh are knotted with San Fran at 36.