DIVISIONAL CRYSTAL BALL: The Truth about the Elite Eight
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU is ready for playoff football with four exciting Divisional Round games staring him in his rapidly aging face. The schedule:
Saturday, 4:30 pm: #6-seeded Buffalo (13-5, 6-3 away) at #1 Denver (14-3, 8-1 home) with Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson on CBS.
Saturday, 8 pm: #6 San Francisco (13-5, 8-2 away) at #1 Seattle (14-3, 6-2 home) with Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady, Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi on Fox.
Sunday, 3 pm: #5 Houston (13-5, 6-3 away) at #2 New England (15-3, 7-3 home) with Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge on ESPN/ABC.
Sunday, 6:30 pm: the #5 Rams (13-5, 6-4 away) at #2 Chicago (12-6, 7-2 home) with Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark on NBC.
Indeed, we’ve got four great contests where any of the combatants could win. Right? Right?
Oh, if only that were true.
In reality, the home team is highly likely to triumph in the Divisional Round. Let’s examine the past 15 NFL postseasons and list the record of the home teams in the Elite Eight:
2024: 3-1 (the exception: visiting Washington won at Dee-troit)
2023: 3-1 (visiting Kansas City won at Buffalo)
2022: 3-1 (visiting Cincinnati won at Buffalo)
2021: 1-3 (SF won at Green Bay; Rams won at Tampa; Cincy won at Tennessee)
2020: 3-1 (Tampa Bay won at New Orleans)
2019: 3-1 (Tennessee won at Baltimore)
2018: 4-0
2017: 3-1 (Jacksonville won at Pittsburgh)
2016: 2-2 (Pittsburgh won at KC; Green Bay won at Dallas)
2015: 4-0
2014: 3-1 (Indianapolis won at Denver)
2013: 3-1 (San Francisco won at Carolina)
2012: 3-1 (Baltimore won at Denver)
2011: 3-1 (New York Giants won at Green Bay)
2010: 2-2 (New York Jets won at New England; Green Bay won at Atlanta)
You get the picture, right? Over the past decade and a half, home teams have posted a scintillating 43-17 (.717) mark1 in Divisional Round games, recording a losing record once (2021).
So, which of the visiting squads is going to buck the trend this weekend and capture a victory to advance to the conference championship team?
Is a Buffalo victory in Denver possible? Heck yes. Josh Allen is the league’s most dynamic quarterback, and this Bills squad is battle tested.
Could the Niners spring the upset in Seattle? Of course they could. Kyle Shanahan is one of the league’s finest and, even without George Kittle, San Fran is playing well.
Will DeMeco Ryans and his Texans shock the world and take down the Patriots? It wouldn’t be a surprise, given Houston’s 10-game winning streak and suffocating D.
All that said, I’m taking the Rams and the experience of Messrs. McVay and Stafford to advance in the Chicago cold. Each of the other underdogs - Buffalo, San Francisco and Houston - will see their seasons come to a close.
Six teams saw their seasons end last week as LE GURU registered a Wild Card record of 5-1 (.833), improving the season mark to 156-109 (.589). Good to see our friend - the blind squirrel - make a rare late season appearance and find a nut or two.
That’s all for the weekend, folks. I’ll be back Monday with a prediction for the College Football Playoff title game. Until then, enjoy the games and God bless!
Thanks Wikipedia!