WEEK 10 CRYSTAL BALL - WEEKEND
WEEK 10 CRYSTAL BALL - WEEKEND
Geno Smith, the Comeback Kid
My friends, entering this season, THE GURU hadn’t thought about Geno Smith in years. Now, I can’t get him out of my mind.
The current Seahawks starter was long-ago deemed a draft bust and cast aside by the Jets, Giants and Chargers in the span of three years. He was then exiled to Seattle which, as good as the franchise has been through the years, must have felt like the NFL’s version of Siberia.
Now, in his fourth season in the Pacific Northwest, Smith is not only relevant, but he is also playing at a Pro Bowl level and leading the league in completion percentage. He has accounted for 16 touchdowns and only five turnovers as the 6-3 Seahawks are in the mix for a playoff berth. Most impressively, no one is looking for Russell Wilson to walk back through that door.
How did Smith do it? It’s a long story, sure, and, as much as anything, it’s a tale about hard work, humility and open-mindedness. A narrative about a guy who wouldn’t quit and a coach that saw greatness inside of his backup quarterback.
When Smith arrived in Seattle in 2019, it seemed like a weigh station on his way out of the league. He had not won a game since 2016 and had not started more than once in a season since 2014 when he was 3-10 for the Jets. Two quarterback-poor teams, the Jets and Giants, had given up on him. Clearly, the writing was on the wall.
But a funny thing occurred on the way to Smith’s football funeral. He found a team that believed in him, a team which thought he could contribute. A team that, unlike the Jets and Giants, was a perennial winner.
Smith did not throw a pass in 2019, his first season in Seattle, but it was that year that it first struck me that Carroll and his staff respected Smith quite a bit. It was Week 10 and, as the 7-2 Seahawks prepared to play overtime against San Francisco, the coach sent Geno, his backup quarterback, out to midfield for an overtime coin toss.
Now, I’m not going to pretend that representing your team for the coin toss means you’re a star in the making but one tends to think of major on-field contributors as the guys given the opportunity to take part. So, this single instance jumped out at me, and I filed it away.
Pete Carroll, I thought, likes Geno Smith.
Fast forward to the 2021 season and, when Wilson missed 3+ games, Smith replaced him and performed capably by accounting for six touchdowns and only two turnovers. Carroll and his staff, including offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, passing game coordinator Dave Canales and quarterbacks coach Austin Davis, put Smith in position to succeed and they must have been impressed.
Pete Carroll, I thought, likes Geno Smith.
So, this season, when Smith beat out former Bronco Drew Lock for the starting QB job in this season’s training camp, it didn’t really shock me. It didn’t shock me at all.
Pete Carroll, I thought, likes Geno Smith.
Of course, there were still folks doubting the veteran quarterback as the regular season neared but the naysayers discounted two important things: Smith’s belief in himself and his trust in Seattle’s coaches. And that faith is certainly paying dividends: the team is in the playoff hunt and, today, the NFL Network reported that Seattle is expected to offer their new starting QB a long-term contract after the season. That’s great stuff.
One more thing before we get to this week’s predictions: Smith’s rise this season also points to Carroll’s greatness. The best coaches have the ability to replace key players like Wilson and not only remain competitive but to continue on an upward trajectory. The ultimate example, of course, is Joe Gibbs, who won three Super Bowls in DC with three different quarterbacks and three different running backs.
Oddly, when great coaches are mentioned, Carroll doesn’t always come up but consider this: the Super Bowl XLVIII champion owns 169 victories, including the postseason, which ranks 17th in league history. His 11 playoff wins are tied for 10th. And his run at USC was legendary. The man is a leader.
When it comes to picking games, yours truly does not hold a leadership position with the season mark at 81-55 (.596) after Thursday’s Falcons loss in Charlotte. Let’s see if we can right things this week.
First, if you’re looking for details and data, here is the complete schedule, including TV listings and broadcaster pairings, standings and team statistics. This week there are four teams enjoying the bye, and they all have winning records: Baltimore (6-3), Cincinnati (5-4), New England (5-4) and the Jets (6-3).
In Munich today, kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET, take Seattle against Tampa. I like Pete Carroll’s ability to rally his troops in off-schedule situations like today.
At 1 pm, I’ll take Buffalo over Minnesota though a Vikings upset wouldn’t be a shocker, especially with Josh Allen banged up. Let’s also go with Pittsburgh over NOLA, the Bears against Dee-troit, the Titans vs. Denver, Miami over Cleveland, KC to topple Jacksonville and the Giants to beat the Texans in a squeaker. The Jints may fade a bit in the season’s second half but will still end with 10-11 wins.
In the 4 pm window, let’s go with Vegas over Jeff Saturday’s Colts, Dallas against the Packers and the Rams over Arizona. Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are both out with injuries today so the starters will be John Wolford and Colt McCoy, respectively.
At 8:20 pm, take San Fran over the Chargers and, tomorrow evening, the Eagles will beat my beloved Commies though the District won’t go down without a fight. If you’re watching the latter game, take close note of the battle between Philadelphia center Jason Kelce and Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne as it may be the only game the Birds star is bested this season. Payne and the team’s other star defensive tackle, Jonathan Allen, are hard to handle.
That’s it for now, folks. Thanks for reading and enjoy the games! God bless!