WEEK 18 CRYSTAL BALL: Saturday Games Critical for Playoff Positioning
WEEK 18 CRYSTAL BALL: Saturday Games Critical for Playoff Positioning
My friends, it has come to this: the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season. And, while there are a handful of games that mean little in the playoff picture, there are many that are critical to postseason hopes.
The big one on many a radar is the weekend’s final game at 8:20 pm ET Sunday with the Bills (10-6, 3-4 away) at the Dolphins (11-5, 7-1 home). NBC’s Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark and rules analyst Terry McAulay call the action.
Like bloated Buffalo superfan OLD NORTH ANDY after too many trips to Tim Horton’s, the Bills were listless at midseason. But now, Sean McDermott’s squad has risen from the ashes and sits on the precipice of an AFC East title. All that stands in their way is a hungry Miami squad that last captured the AFC East crown in 2008, the year that Tom Brady blew out his ACL1 in the season opener.
This tilt promises to be a good one and the scenarios are fascinating. First, if the Bills win, they capture the AFC East championship and could be seeded as high as second in the conference for the playoffs. But, if they lose, their season could be over. That’s right.
Of course, for Buffalo to miss the postseason, several things would have to happen in addition to a Bills loss. As explained perfectly by the folks at CBS Sports:
1. The Steelers beat the Ravens
2. The Jaguars beat the Titans
3. The Texans-Colts game doesn’t end in a tie
So, it behooves Buffalo to beat Miami and leave nothing to chance. I’m expecting an excellent back-and-forth affair better two teams that are hotter than the well-worn office chair occupied by FATBACK HOBBS. Let’s call it 29-27, Bills.
Time to check out the rest of the slate with the season mark at 158-93 (.629) after last week’s 10-6 performance (.625). Let’s start with two big games happening today.
SATURDAY
4:30 PM - ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Steelers (9-7, 4-3 away) at Ravens (13-3, 6-2 home)
This matchup marks the 35th meeting between Tomlin and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, second most in NFL history behind the George Halas-Curly Lambeau series that defined the Bears-Packers rivalry for decades. Tomlin holds a 19-15 edge over his rival, including a win earlier this season in Pittsburgh.
There are a number of scenarios that would send Pittsburgh to the playoffs but let’s just put that aside and acknowledge another terrific coaching job by Tomlin. Win or lose, the 2023 season will mark the 17th straight non-losing campaign for the coach who has been at the helm for, yup, 17 years.
Much to the coach’s chagrin, he probably feels like he’s used 17 quarterbacks this season though, in the reality, he’s only had three: Kenny Pickett (12 games), Mitch Trubisky (2) and Mason Rudolph (2). Pickett is healthy this week, but the Steelers are sticking with Rudolph against the Ravens, a sensible decision since Pittsburgh’s top two 2023 offensive performances have come with Rudolph at the helm the past two weeks.
The simplest formula for Pittsburgh to get to the postseason: they beat Baltimore and Buffalo loses at Miami or Jacksonville loses at Tennessee. Not out of the question.
The Ravens would surely love to knock their archenemies from the postseason but, with a number of guys resting, including Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh has the edge. Call it 23-20, Steelers.
8:15 PM - ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Texans (9-7, 3-4 away) at Colts (9-7, 4-4 home)
The formula for either of these teams to make the playoffs is as straightforward as it gets: win this weekend. And, if Jacksonville loses in Tennessee, that means the winner of Texans-Colts will be the AFC South champ.
I’d like to pick upstart Houston here but given CJ Stroud’s recent concussion issues, I’m taking the hosts. Colts by four.
SUNDAY
1 PM - FOX
Like everyone else, I see the visiting Bucs (8-8, 4-4 away) beating the Panthers (2-14, 2-5 home) to win the AFC South crown. A Tampa Bay loss eliminates Todd Bowles & Co. and propels the Falcons-Saints victor to the postseason…
…the Vikings (7-9, 5-3 away) fall at the Lions (11-5, 5-2 home) giving Dee-troit its second 12-win regular season in its 93-year history. If Dan Campbell’s crew gets the win, they’ll be closely watching Eagles-Giants and Cowboys-Commies as losses by both Philly and Dallas would make the Lions the second seed…
…the Jets (6-10, 2-5 away) lose to the Patriots (4-12, 1-7 home) in Foxboro, preventing New England from securing the second overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. The last time the Pats picked in the top 10: their Super Bowl championship season of 2001 when they selected Georgia defensive lineman Richard Seymour with the sixth overall pick. Seymour was a 2022 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee, so I guess that worked out ok.
1 PM - CBS
In an upset, the Jaguars (9-7, 5-2 away) fall at the Titans (5-11, 4-4 home). Trevor Lawrence is gimpy and that scares me as much as an empty refrigerator.
The Jags will be contenders for years to come but they’ve lost four of their last five games and it’s hard to see them righting the ship if Lawrence misses the game. Word is that CJ Beathard is likely to get his second consecutive start at QB…
…the host Saints (8-8, 4-3 home) beat Atlanta (7-9, 2-6 away) and win the NFC South in a game that also matters to New England and Washington when it comes to draft positioning. Try to follow me here:
1. The Pats and Commies are jockeying for the #2 overall pick and, if both teams lose, the Saints-Falcons contest may determine who gets the second pick.
2. Here’s why: when teams have the same record - as New England and Washington could at 4-13 - the tiebreaker is based upon strength of schedule i.e., the team whose sked is weaker, based on opponents’ won-loss records, gets the higher draft slot. The league’s reasoning: you should win more games if you have a weaker schedule so, if you don’t, you deserve a better draft pick.
3. As fate would have it, Washington’s opponents’ record is a combined 140-132 while New England’s stands at 141-131. And New Orleans pounded the Pats this year while the Commies beat the Falcons.
4. So, a DC fan who wants the #2 pick is rooting for a Saints victory while a similarly minded Patriots supporter is pulling hard for Taylor Heinicke2 and Atlanta.
I never put anything past Heinicke but, again, I’m rolling with Nola here….
…the Browns (11-5, 3-4 away) lose to the Bengals (8-8, 5-3 home) giving Cincinnati its first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since one Marvin Lewis led the franchise to five straight winning campaigns from 2011-15…
4:25 PM - CBS
The Bears (7-9, 2-6 away) fall at the Packers (8-8, 4-3 home), sending Green Bay to the playoffs and eliminating Seattle from postseason contention…
…the visiting Eagles (11-5, 5-3 away) pound the Giants (5-11, 3-4 Home) and watch the scoreboard to see if they’ll be the second or fifth seed. Philly secures the #2 spot if DC defeats Dallas but winds up at #5 if the Commies succumb to Big D…
…the Chiefs (10-6, 5-2 away) lose at the Chargers (5-11, 2-6 home) in a game that doesn’t matter when it comes to playoff seeding. KC is locked into the #3 slot no matter what and will likely host Buffalo or Miami in the first round of the playoffs.
Either scenario would be juicy, wouldn’t it? Imagine another Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes matchup or the return of Tyreek to KC. I’m licking my lips and not just because I’m thinking of the pork tenderloin sandwich I had in Des Moines back in 2019 with my man BIG ROB.3
4:25 PM - FOX
The Seahawks (8-8, 3-5) win at the Cardinals (4-12, 2-5 home) and hope the Bears can find a way to beat Green Bay. A Seattle win would give Pete Carroll his 11th winning season in the past 12 years…
…the Broncos (8-8, 3-4 away) fall at the Raiders (7-9, 5-3 home) as Antonio Pierce locks up the full-time head coaching gig in Vegas….
…the Rams (9-7, 4-4 away) beat the host Niners (12-4, 5-2 home) in a game that doesn’t really affect either team. LA will be the sixth or seventh seed and San Fran is locked in to the coveted #1 spot…
…finally, the Cowboys (11-5, 3-5 away) take down My Beloved Commies (4-12, 1-6 home) as FedEx Field moves one stop closer to being a distant memory4. I fully expect the home team to put up a good fight with Ron Rivera pulling out all the stops in his last game coaching the team but, since Dallas needs the win, it won’t matter. Dak & Co. secure the victory and, thus, earn the #2 seed.
Before I go, a heartfelt thanks to CBS and ESPN for their voluminous information on playoff scenarios and the like. My favorite is ESPN’s Playoff Machine, which allows users to input the winners of various games to determine see how the seedings would look. Still, no matter how hard I tried, I couldn’t find a way to get DC to the playoffs.
That’s all for this week, folks. Next stop: Postseason! Enjoy the games and God bless!
Technically, I suppose, Brady blew out his ACL but, more accurately, Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard blew out Brady’s ACL. The hit was among those that led to a rule change prohibiting players from hitting quarterbacks near the knee.
For an excellent column on Heinicke, check out yesterday’s op-ed by Atlanta Journal-Constitution publisher - and Turkey Bowl football star - Andrew Morse.
There’s no reason for me to be thinking about a meal I had nearly five years ago in the Middle West but, darn it, here we are.
My goodness, 2027 can’t come soon enough.