Week Eighteen Crystal Ball: The Case for Brock Bowers
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU is ready for the regular season’s final weekend with three AFC teams (Bengals, Broncos, Dolphins) jostling for one open spot and two NFC clubs (Bucs, Falcons) vying for the other position.
We’ll dive into the games that count the most but, first, let’s talk Offensive Rookie of the Year, a much-hyped annual honor whose past recipients include 12 Pro Football Hall of Famers, men such as Franco Harris (1972), Earl Campbell (1978) and Emmitt Smith (1990).
Those three runners are among the 35 RBs who’ve won OROY, making the position the most decorated by a long shot with quarterback (11) and wide receiver (11) next in line. In fact, those are the only three positions to have received the honor, showing a bit of tunnel vision amongst the 50 media members who vote on the award, and I’m putting that as kindly as possible.
This year’s winner seems likely to be a young man hailing from the Southeastern Conference, an electrifying player who has been a ray of light for a franchise that has struggled for decades. Sure, you’re thinking about Washington QB Jayden Daniels but let’s not forget his SEC brethren, namely Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, the most productive first-year tight end in the history of the sport.
The University of Georgia alum set three single-season records in last week’s win at New Orleans: most receiving yards for a rookie tight end, surpassing Mike Ditka; most catches for a rookie at any position, surpassing Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua; and most receptions for a Raider, surpassing Darren Waller.
Putting the numbers in perspective, the tight end position has been around since the 1950s. The Raiders were born in 1960. Mike Ditka set the rookie yards record in 1963. And young Brock Bowers, in his first NFL system and playing with two struggling quarterbacks (Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell), sets three all-time records.
Mind blowing.
Bowers also leads all current tight ends with 108 catches and is third overall, trailing just Ja’Marr Chase (117) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (109). And he’s seventh in receiving yards (1,144) at any position, fifth in first downs (58) and fourth in yards after the catch (577). Holy.
Indeed, his performance is every bit as impressive as what my QB has accomplished in Washington and, yes, I think the Napa, Calif., native will age like a fine wine. Say it loud enough for everyone to hear, Terrell Owens.
Fast forwarding to Sunday, Bowers concludes his spectacular rookie campaign as the host Raiders (4-12, 2-5 home) face the playoff-bound Chargers (10-6, 5-3 away). It’s at 4:25 pm on CBS.
For Bowers, there is still one more record to chase: nine catches would give him the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end. Washington’s Zach Ertz is the current recordholder with 116 catches, accomplished in 2018 with Philadelphia1.
I’ll pick Vegas to get its third straight win with Harbaugh & Co. resting some starters in advance of next week’s wildcard action.
Let’s go to the rest of the games, beginning with the five that matter in determining playoff participants:
Tonight, I like the visiting Bengals (8-8, 5-3 away) against the faltering Steelers (10-6, 5-2 home), losers of three straight.
That said, Pittsburgh lost three in a row last December as well but then rallied to win three consecutive heading into the playoffs. That’s the power of Mike Tomlin, folks, so let’s see what kind of psychological magic he conjures up tonight.
Tomlin at William & Mary (Photo: W&M Athletics) If Cincy wins, they’ll still need help to get to the postseason, namely a Broncos loss to the Chiefs plus a Dolphins loss (or tie) against the Jets.
Kickoff is at 8 pm on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.
On Sunday at 1 pm on Fox, I’m taking the host Bucs (9-7, 4-4 home) to top the Saints (5-11, 2-5 away). New Orleans has competed gamely under interim coach Darren Rizzi, but it’s been to little avail.
The playoff formula is simple for Tampa: win - or tie - and they are in the playoffs as the NFC South champion. They can make the postseason with a loss as well, as long as Atlanta loses to rival Carolina.Speaking of which, I’m rolling with the Falcons (8-8, 4-4 home) to beat the Panthers (4-12, 1-6 away) in Atlanta. Gametime is at 1 pm Sunday on CBS.
I was impressed with Raheem Morris & Co. in last Sunday’s loss to My Beloved Commies and think they’ll lay the wood to a tough-minded Carolina squad. It’ll still likely leave them short of the playoffs, but it’ll be something to build on for next year.At 4:25 pm Sunday, the Dolphins (8-8, 3-5 away) beat the Jets (4-12, 2-5 home) as Aaron Rodgers ends his New York tenure, and perhaps his career. I’d like him to go out on a high note but, as bad as the team has looked, I just can’t see it. Fox has the action.
Of note, Miami makes the postseason with a win plus a little help from the Broncos, who must lose to Kansas City.
McDaniel has led Miami to six wins in eight weeks (Photo: Rich Storry/Getty) Meanwhile at 4:25 pm Sunday on CBS, I’ve got the Broncos (9-7, 5-2 home) beating the visiting Chiefs (15-1, 7-1 away) and backup quarterback Carson Wentz. A win or tie gets Sean Payton’s crew into the playoffs, ending an eight-season drought.
If KC pulls out a win, Denver can still advance to the postseason if both Miami and Cincinnati lose or tie their respective games. Here’s betting the Broncos don’t leave that to chance.
Here’s the rest of the schedule:
The Browns (3-13, 1-7 away) fall at Ravens (11-5, 5-2 home) at 4:30 pm Saturday on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+. Baltimore maintains the upper hand in one of the biggest feuds in the history of the sport. Spell it L-A-M-A-R!…
…At 1 pm Sunday, the Texans (9-7, 4-4 away) win at Tennessee (3-13, 1-6 home) to end their two-game losing streak. The Titans are a welcome sight for Houston after back-to-back losses to the Chiefs and Ravens. This one is on CBS…
…the Bills (13-3, 5-3 away) throttle the Patriots (3-13, 1-6 home) in Foxboro. Buffalo’s reserves are better than New England’s starters…
…the Giants (3-13, 2-5 away) beat the Eagles (13-3, 7-1 home) in Philly with Nick Sirianni resting much of his roster. New York lost its shot at the #1 overall draft pick with last week’s win and another victory could send them closer to selection #10.
SUNDAY, 1 PM FOX
My Beloved Commies (11-5, 4-3 away) win at Dallas (7-9, 2-6 home) to secure the NFC’s sixth seed. Washington’s 11 regular-season victories are its most since their last Super Bowl title during the 1991 season (14) when LE GURU was just 21 years old. It’s been a long walk in the desert, my friends…
…the Bears (4-12, 0-7 away) lose #11 in a row at rival Green Bay (11-5, 6-2 home). It’s hard to believe Chicago started the season 4-2, isn’t it? The last month has been tough to watch…
…the Jaguars (4-12, 1-7 away) fall at the Colts (7-9, 4-3 home). Indy didn’t acquit itself well in New York last weekend, but Jacksonville is a one-game panacea. Will Captain Kirk Cousins lead Indianapolis in 2025?
4:25 PM, FOX
I like the Seahawks (9-7, 6-1 away) at the Rams (10-6, 5-3 home) with LA resting numerous starters. With a win this weekend, Coach Mike McDonald becomes the first man in Seattle history to lead the franchise to 10 wins in his initial campaign. That’s not bad…
…take the Niners (6-10, 2-5 away) to finish with a win at Arizona (7-9, 5-3 home). If Kyle Shanahan’s team is healthy, they’ll be tough to deal with in 2025.
8:20 PM, NBC/Peacock
In the finale, I’ll take my preseason Super Bowl favorite, Dee-troit (14-2, 6-2 home) to beat resurgent Minnesota (14-2, 6-1 away). This one comes down to the wire and the Lions close it out.
With one weekend remaining, the season mark is 166-91 (.646) after Week Seventeen’s 12-4 (.750) performance. That’s all for this week, folks. Enjoy the games and God bless!
Hat tip to the crew at NFL Network.