Week Sixteen Crystal Ball - Weekend: A Requiem for Kirk Cousins?
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU’s favorite football team takes on the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend but I’m thinking about birds of a different feather, specifically those Atlanta Falcons and their now-backup quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
If you missed the news, the QB was benched this week for the first time of his career, replaced by lefthanded rookie Michael Penix, a promising young man who starred at Indiana and Washington as a collegian. True to form, Cousins took the demotion like a man.
"It's pro football. There's a standard that I have for myself, that the team has for me," he told reporters. "Unfortunately, I wasn't playing up to that standard consistently enough. It is what it is. You roll with it. Now, you still get ready, one play away kind of a thing, and support Mike and just try to help our team be able to find a way to win these last three to get in the playoffs. That's what it's all about. That's my focus."
Yes, the benching likely signals the end of Cousins in Atlanta but, while teams like the Colts and Browns are likely offseason suitors, let’s imagine for a moment that his career is over. What would his legacy be? How would he be remembered?
For starters, contracts will be part of the story as the 13-year-pro has secured nearly $300 million in career earnings as of this writing. That’s sixth in league history and doesn’t include all of the guaranteed money he is owed by Atlanta.
Indeed, he’s a first-ballot Sports Business Hall of Famer but he’s also a tremendous football player. In fact, the numbers solidly place Kirk among the best quarterbacks in NFL history1.
To wit: his career stacks up well against the all-time greats in most categories: passing yards (21st), fourth-quarter comebacks (19th), TD passes (18th), passer rating (11th), passing yards per game (10th), completion percentage (sixth), etc. Not bad for a 2012 fourth-round pick who was the eighth quarterback selected and seen as the longtime backup to Robert Griffin III.
Critics will say “He’s only won one playoff game” but wins are not a quarterback stat and, heck, there are Hall of Famers who did little in the postseason. The legendary Y.A. Tittle was 0-4 in his career and HOFers George Blanda, Joe Namath, Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield all won just two games apiece.
So, let’s hear it for Kirk Cousins, eh? A big-time overachiever whose durability and hard work have allowed him to pile up numbers that the average quarterback couldn’t imagine. And I don’t think he’s done yet.
His replacement, Penix, is just getting started, of course, and that leads us to Sunday at 1 pm with the Giants (2-12, 2-4 away) visiting the Falcons (7-7, 3-4 home) on Fox.
It isn’t easy being a rookie QB, but I’ve got a hunch that Penix will perform well in his debut. He’s learned a lot from Cousins and flagging New York is the perfect opponent to face, especially with Dexter Lawrence out and Brian Burns questionable to play.
Take Atlanta by three.
That takes us to the rest of the Week Sixteen slate with THE GURU at 144-82 (.637) on the season. Let’s go to the games…
TODAY
At 1 pm on NBC/Peacock, take the visiting Texans (9-5, 4-3 away) in a mild upset against the Chiefs (13-1, 7-0 home). KC may be headed for another Super Bowl, but Mahomes is battled a high right ankle sprain so I’m picking the visitors…
…Pittsburgh (10-4, 5-3 away) topples the Ravens (9-5, 4-2 home) in Baltimore. This feels like a typical knock-down, drag-out battle between these rivals and I’m riding the horse with the most effective kicker, Chris Boswell. He’s been lights-out this year with 11 field goals of more than 50 yards while his counterpart, Justin Tucker, has hit just 53% of his kicks beyond 40 yards.
SUNDAY
1 PM, FOX
I love the Lions (12-2, 6-0 away) at the Bears (4-10, 4-3 home) in a rout of near-Biblical proportions…
…the Eagles (12-2, 6-1 away) sneak past My Beloved Commies (9-5, 5-2 home) in Landover. This rivalry is going to get good again but, for now, Philly clearly has the upper hand…
…take the Cardinals (7-7, 2-4 away) at the Panthers (3-11, 2-6 home). Don’t look now but Kyler Murray could be on his way to his second playoff appearance.
1 PM, CBS
The Browns (3-11, 1-6 away) lose at the Bengals (6-8, 1-5 home) with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting for Cleveland. It’s going to be an offseason rife with decisions in northern Ohio…
…the Titans (3-11, 2-5 away) fall at the Colts (6-8, 3-3 home). Remember how Mike Vrabel had this Tennessee team on the cusp of big things just three years ago?…
…the visiting Rams (8-6, 4-3 away) run roughshod over the Jets (4-10, 2-4 home) as New York hurtles towards its ninth straight year of seven wins or fewer.
4:05 PM, FOX
I like the Vikings (12-2, 5-1 away) at the Seahawks (8-6, 3-5 home). With a career record of 32-17 (.653), it’s time we start talking about Kevin O’Connell as one of the best coaches in the game, isn’t it?
4:25 PM, CBS
The host Bills (11-3, 6-0 home) hammer the Patriots (3-11, 2-6 away). It’ll be a long offseason for Jerod Mayo & Co. as they seek to right the ship in Foxboro…
…the visiting Jaguars (3-11, 1-6 away) fall to the Raiders (2-12, 1-5 home) in a game with major 2025 draft implications…
…the Niners (6-8, 2-4 home) lose at the Dolphins (6-8, 4-3 home) in a matchup of two head coaches who know one another well. Indeed, Miami’s Mike McDaniel served under Kyle Shanahan in five different cities: Houston (2007-08), Washington (2011-13), Cleveland (2014), Atlanta (2015-16), and San Francisco (2017-21).
When they catch up before the game, here’s betting they’ll talk about the toll injuries have taken on their respective teams in 2024.
8:20 PM, NBC/Peacock
Take the Bucs (8-6, 5-2 away) at the Cowboys (6-8, 1-6 home) in a tight contest as Tampa keeps its playoff hopes alive. Dallas has played well in recent weeks, so this won’t be a walkover.
MONDAY, 8:15 PM, ESPN/ABC
In the weekend’s finale, I’ll take host Green Bay (10-4, 5-2 home) against the Saints (5-9, 2-4 away). Darren Rizzi’s team is tough but a win over the Packers is a lot to ask.
Alright, that’s it for this week, folks. Enjoy the games and God bless!
Relax, folks. I’m NOT saying that Kirk is one of the top QBs in NFL history. But he’s darn good and deserves to be recognized for it.