SUPER CRYSTAL BALL: It feels like a tight one, folks
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU is all fired up for Super Bowl LX. Snacks. Seahawks. Patriots.
But before we get into the game, a brief digression.
If you’ve been paying attention over the past week, you’ve heard plenty of furor about New England icons Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft being “passed over” for the Hall of Fame. My advice: please stop the madness.
Yes, it’s silly that Belichick and Kraft, winners of six Super Bowls together, were not elected to the latest Pro Football Hall of Fame class. In fact, “silly” is being kind about it. But I’m going to let you in on a little secret.
IT. DOES. NOT. MATTER.
Simply put, Messrs. Belichick and Kraft are icons of the game who do not need HOF enshrinement for their careers to be validated. Indisputably, they are already Mount Rushmore-level guys in their respective roles of coach and owner. A bust in Canton changes nothing for this duo.
But that’s not true for everyone. Sure, this year’s HOF class includes no brainers who are NFL legends like Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Luke Kuechly and Adam Vinatieri. They were stars throughout their careers, perennial Pro Bowlers/All-Pros long viewed as locks to make their way to Ohio’s hallowed gates.
But that’s not the case for guys like Roger Craig, the long-retired running back who excelled for San Francisco (1983-90), Oakland (1991) and Minnesota (1992-93) after an outstanding career at the University of Nebraska. Out of the game for three decades, he’s a guy that many modern fans don’t know well but, as of this week, is finally set to be immortalized as a Hall of Famer.
It always seemed odd to me that Craig wasn’t enshrined, given the major role he played in the Niners’ success. He is a three-time Super Bowl champion. Earned the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award in 1988 when he became the first player to record 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season. Led the NFL in catches in 1985 - as a running back. And was a member of the prestigious 1980s All-Decade team.
Truly, to see Roger Craig play was poetic. Bursting through the line with his knees pumping like pistons and the ball held tight. A set of focused eyes ready to take on any defender.
Now, on the precipice of being a 2026 HOF inductee, Craig’s career is finally - and rightfully - validated. The bust in Canton changes how he is viewed by many and, as someone who watched him play, I’m damn glad to see it.
With hearty congrats to all of this year’s inductees, let’s move on to the big game as LE GURU seeks to improve on his playoff mark of 10-31 (.769). Kickoff is at 6:30 pm on NBC with Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark and Kaylee Hartung on the broadcast. The 16-3 Seahawks against the 17-3 Patriots.
With two weeks to think about this matchup, I’ve found myself going back and forth, like HONG KONG MIKE pacing nervously at a Chinese buffet, waiting for the next steaming tray of General Tso’s.
After the conference championship games, I was thinking “Seattle,” potentially in a rout. My rationale: the Seahawks are on a tear, Drake Maye has struggled for most of the postseason and Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be the best player in the sport.
Then I started to think about history and, looking back, there are two Super Bowls that remind me of this year’s scenario - XVIII (Raiders over Skins in the 1983 season) and XXXVI (Patriots over Rams in 2001). In each case, the heavily favored team lost, and I see some parallels today.
In 1983, Washington was the best team in football, and it wasn’t close: 16-2 with two one-point losses. They also set an NFL regular-season record for points scored (541) and registered an absurd +43 turnover margin, a mark that is still nearly 50% better than any other team in NFL history.
In their playoff opener, they trounced the Los Angeles Rams, 51-7, before winning a tightly contested NFC title game over the Niners, 24-21. Then, they lost the Bowl to the LA Raiders in resounding fashion, 38-9.
Sadly, the ‘83 Skins peaked too soon.
This season, the Seahawks have been dominant, posting an 8-1 road record2 and stifling opponents with a suffocating defense that allowed a league-low 17 points per game in the regular season. Their special teams were outstanding, ranking third in the NFL and may be the biggest threat to New England today. And, oh yes, Smith-Njigba was named NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
In their first playoff game, they lambasted the Niners, 41-6, before winning a tightly contested NFC title game over the Rams, 31-27.
Now I wonder: “Did Seattle peak too soon?”
In 2001, the Rams were the defending Super Bowl Champions and ran roughshod over the league with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk leading the famed “Greatest Show on Turf”. Meanwhile, the Pats were a Cinderella story with Tom Brady, who was starting NFL games for the first time. Yet, New England topped St. Louis in overtime, 20-17.
The Patriots’ strategy that day was to go after Faulk, the NFL’s best offensive skill player, and limit his explosive plays. So, they hit him on every single play, even when he wasn’t going to touch the ball. As Belichick later said:
"…our game plan was defined by two words -- Marshall Faulk. If he's behind the quarterback, we are playing run. And if he's not behind the quarterback, we're playing pass. Ok, where is he? He's not behind the quarterback? We're thinking jam the receivers. That triggered the defensive ends -- (Willie) McGinest -- trying to hit Faulk and take him out of the game so the quarterback doesn't have an outlet to throw. When we blitzed in this game, we tried to blitz over Faulk. Our thinking was that we would be able to keep him in and force him to block. Then our blitzers would get to the quarterback and we would force the ball out in a hurry.”
Vrabel was in his first year as a New England player in 2001 and started the Super Bowl at left outside linebacker, recording four tackles. That included two takedowns of Faulk and a sack of Warner.
In preparation for Seattle, I think Vrabel will hearken back to that franchise-changing day in New Orleans and the strategy that Belichick & Co. employed to keep Warner, Faulk, etc. under wraps. Here’s betting New England gets physical with Smith-Njigba and throws a lot of heat at QB Sam Darnold, keeping the game close. But does that create an opportunity for someone like Cooper Kupp or Kenneth Walker III?
One thing’s for sure: if the game is tight, Vrabel will have the chance to showcase his outstanding clock management skills and deep understanding of the NFL rule book. Remember the 2019 playoffs when, as coach of the Titans, he brilliantly shaved two minutes off the clock against the Pats by intentionally taking penalties? Tennessee won the game, turning it into Brady’s swan song in Foxboro.
Vrabel’s experience as a three-time Super Bowl champion player should allow him to keep his young team calm and it also helps to have the steady hand of Josh McDaniel at offensive coordinator. This is the tenth time (!) that McDaniel has coached in the big game, giving the Pats another definite advantage.
Of course, Vrabel’s opposite number Sunday - Mike Macdonald - is far from a slouch, entering the game hotter than FATBACK’s side of the bed. How does 16-3 with the three losses by a combined nine points grab you? Sure, he may lack Super Bowl bona fides, but I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by the moment.
The oddsmakers favor Seattle and they should. The Seahawks are a better team than New England. Yes, it’s subjective but, if you’ve watched the two teams closely all year, it’s feels empirical.
But here’s the thing: the Pats don’t have to be better than Seattle. They just have to be better than Seattle today.
As I see it, we’re in for a low-scoring affair with the head coaches matching wits and the teams exchange punts and field goals. I’m not saying it’ll be like Super Bowl LIII when New England beat the Rams 13-3, but I don’t expect many offensive fireworks. These defenses are too good at limiting big plays.
I think the difference-maker could be Macdonald’s aforementioned special teams, which are clearly better than the middle-of-the-pack Patriots. So, let’s call it Seattle, 20-17, with kicker Jason Myers drilling a 44-yard field goal to win it.
That’s my pick and I’m sticking with it, at least for the next few minutes.
Enjoy the game and God bless!
Including the CFP title game.
Thanks, as always, to Pro Football Reference for the voluminous data and information.
Randy,
Always interesting read with thought process inclusive plus tidbits making sense! Enjoyed seeing picture of health in Mike and framed legend in Coach Fred!! Best, Jack