Week Eight Crystal Ball - Weekend: A Rumble Down South
"The Ball rolls downhill." - Plodding George Stahl, 1998
My friends, THE GURU is ready for some Southern cooking. Bring on the fried chicken, the barbecue, the shrimp and grits. Grab a po’boy and fill your plates with biscuits and gravy. It’s time for the Falcons and Bucs in another blood-and-guts game between these NFC South rivals.
Of course, until the 21st Century came around, these teams weren’t considered rivals.
Atlanta was awarded an NFL franchise in 1966, becoming the league’s fifteenth team, and spent its first three seasons in the eight-team East Division. Then, as part of the 1970 merger with the American Football League, the Falcons migrated1 to the newly formed NFC West, a position they occupied through the 2001 campaign.
Meanwhile, Tampa joined the league in 1976 as a member of the AFC West, shifted to the NFC Central a year later and remained in that division through that 2001 season.
These are two franchises that have spent much of their lives wandering in the football desert and, to that point, none other than Moses2 was quoted as saying, “Dang, I feel for these dudes.”
How bad, historically, are Atlanta and Tampa? Well, of the 32 extant NFL franchises, the Falcons (.437) and Bucs (.406) are 28th and 32nd3, respectively, in regular season win percentage. And, interestingly, they were both coached by the same Southern gentleman at one point.
Atlanta was a laughingstock for its first 11 years in the league but then a coach named Leeman Bennett came to town and quickly reversed the club’s fortunes with his first squad, the 1977 team, setting an NFL record for fewest points allowed in a 14-game season.
How good was the so-called “Grits Blitz”? Well, defensive backs coach Jerry Glanville & Co. only allowed 9.2 points per game! 9.2! Putting that number into perspective, the famed ‘85 Bears allowed 12.4 points per game and the record-setting 2000 Ravens gave up 10.3 ppg. As my guy BATTERY PARK BRYAN would say “That’s bananas.”
Bennett followed his opening act by getting the Falcons to the playoffs in year two. He then made two more postseason appearances over the next four seasons before being let go.
Bennett won the franchise’s first playoff game in 1978 against the Eagles but his coup de gras was the 1980 season when he took the team to its first division title, the NFC West crown. That Falcons outfit was as good as any in the league in ‘80, posting seven double-digit victory margins and losing just four regular-season games by a combined 14 points. And their 12 wins tied for the NFL’s best with Dallas and Philly.
The star of the show was quarterback Steve Bartkowski, a Cal-Berkeley product4 who could sling the rock, leading the league with 31 TD passes. He also spearheaded four game-winning drives, bolstered by a stellar offensive line (Jeff Van Note5, Mike Kenn, R.C. Thielemann), two outstanding running backs (William Andrews, Lynn Cain) and two excellent Alfreds at wide receiver - Jenkins and Jackson.
Unfortunately, the 1980 Atlanta Express came to a close in the Divisional Round when they lost to Dallas. Leading 24-10 after three quarters and 27-17 with 5:37 remaining, the Falcons fell in excruciating fashion as Danny White hit Drew Pearson for two late TDs and a 30-27 Cowboys win6.
The Falcons wouldn’t advance to the playoffs Divisional Round again until the 1991 season7 with the aforementioned Glanville as head coach. And, sadly, Bennett’s only lasted two more years in Atlanta before being dismissed after making the playoffs in the strike-shortened 1982 campaign.
Bennett’s next NFL opportunity came, yes, in Tampa when owner Hugh Culverhouse hired him in advance of the 1985 season. Alas, his tenure was doomed from the start by front office ineptitude as the organization bungled roster decisions with two all-time greats: Bo Jackson - the #1 pick in the ‘85 draft - and QB Steve Young, who had just arrived from the United States Football League.
At a dinner conversation after Jackson was drafted, the former Auburn star told Young he wasn’t coming to Tampa. Years later, Young said “Bo was correct in his instincts…no sane person would choose to join that franchise.”
After two seasons, Bennett was let go with a 4-28 (.125) record, followed in rapid succession by Ray Perkins at 19-41 (.317), Richard Williams at 4-15 (.211) and Sam Wyche at 10-22 (.313) before Culverhouse passed in 1994. Two years later, the new owners, the Glazer Family, hired Tony Dungy and the franchise’s fortunes turned dramatically.
Of course, while the Buccaneers captured Super Bowl titles during the 2002 and 2020 seasons, there have been plenty of tough times too. Of course, in Atlanta, peaks and valleys have been in the norm as well.
It’s no surprise to learn that the two teams have only finished about .500 in the same season five times: 1982, 2002, 2008, 2010 and 20168. And that’s one of the things that makes today’s game interesting as both Tampa (4-3, 2-2 home) and the Falcons (4-3, 2-0 away) enter the afternoon with winning records, tied for first in the NFC South.
The game is in Florida, but the Bucs are banged up with their top two receivers on the shelf. Throw in the fact that Atlanta is playing good ball and I’m gonna roll with the visitors. Call it Falcons, 26-23.
The season mark moved to 59-46 (.562) with the Rams beating the Vikings Thursday evening. Now let’s take a look at this weekend’s games with nary a bye to be had. And we will do the picks with a bit of a twist as my folks, THE CHIEF and MRS BRAVE, are in town. Here we go.
SUNDAY - 1PM - CBS
EAGLES (4-2, 2-1 away) AT BENGALS (3-4, 0-3 home)
THE CHIEF: “I’ll take the Bengals, just to go against the grain.”
MRS BRAVE: “You would do that. Eagles.”
I’ll go Philly. I think the Birds are about to get on a roll.
RAVENS (5-2, 3-1 away) AT BROWNS (1-6, 0-3 home)
THE CHIEF: “Ravens. They’re hard to beat and the Browns are hard not to beat.”
MRS BRAVE: “Ravens. The Browns just aren’t good.”
It’s gonna be Baltimore but Jameis Winston will make some plays for Cleveland.
JETS (2-5, 1-3 away) at PATRIOTS (1-6, 0-3 home)
THE CHIEF: “Jets. I think Rodgers is playing pretty well.” (Editor’s note: my dad is 84 years old.)
MRS BRAVE: “I guess I’ll take the Jets.”
This is a true toss-up but I’ll go with the Jets. New England is really struggling.
COLTS (4-3, 1-2 away) AT TEXANS (5-2, 3-0)
THE CHIEF: “I’ll take Texas.”
MRS BRAVE: “Take the Texans.”
This feels like a Houston victory. Call it a seven-point margin.
1 PM - FOX
TITANS (1-5, 1-2 away) AT LIONS (5-1, 2-1 home)
THE CHIEF: “As a boy scout I took the train from Richmond to Detroit and had lunch in the Ford executive lunchroom. Went to the Heinz factory too. We were near Lake St. Clair where we camped outside. I remember cutting my finger with an axe and got a couple of stiches so I couldn’t go swimming for 2-3 days. We had a buddy system in the water back then so we wouldn’t drown. Oh yeah, I’ll pick the Lions.”
MRS BRAVE: “(Rolling her eyes) I’ll take the Lions. They went through a lot of really bad years when Matt Millen was there.”
I’ll go with Dee-troit, by a lot. The home team is humming right now.
CARDINALS (3-4, 1-2 away) AT DOLPHINS (2-4, 1-2 home)
THE CHIEF: “You know Arizona is the old Caterpillar proving grounds. We have a lot of schools out there, a first-class demo area. They do cookouts with a full kitchen. It’s like a tailgate situation, son. Ever had a steak on mesquite? If not, you haven’t lived yet. I’ll take the Cardinals.”
MRS BRAVE: “(Rolling her eyes again) It’s iffy but I’m taking the Dolphins.”
Tua is back so I’ll give Miami a slight edge. Fins by three.
PACKERS (5-2, 2-1 away) AT JAGUARS (2-5, 2-1 home)
THE CHIEF: “Packers.”
MRS BRAVE: “I’ll take the Packers. I wonder if my brother still has that cheesehead I bought him.”
Looks like a fourth straight win for the Pack. Green Bay, 29-27.
4:05 PM - FOX
SAINTS (2-5, 1-2 away) AT CHARGERS (3-3, 1-1 home)
THE CHIEF: “Saints. I’d like to see Harbaugh keep losing.”
MRS BRAVE: “I’ll take the Chargers, even though I hope they lose.”
I don’t see New Orleans getting off the schneid any time soon. Chargers win it.
BILLS (5-2, 2-2 away) AT SEAHAWKS (4-3, 2-2 home)
THE CHIEF: “I’ll take the Bills. Josh Allen is my rationale.”
MRS BRAVE: “I’m taking the Bills. I like Jessica Pegula9.”
I like the Bills. Josh Allen with no INTs through seven weeks? Impressive.
4:25 PM - CBS
PANTHERS (1-6, 1-3 away) AT BRONCOS (4-3, 1-2 home)
THE CHIEF: “Broncos. I loved the Mexican food when we lived in Denver.”
MRS BRAVE: “Broncos. I’m remembering the great times we had at Mile High Stadium. The Barrel Man was awesome.”
Sean Payton is turning things around in Denver. Let’s go with the Broncos.
CHIEFS (6-0, 3-0 away) AT RAIDERS (2-5, 1-2 home)
THE CHIEF: “Gotta go with the Chiefs. Kansas City is a well-kept secret. Great town.”
MRS BRAVE: “Chiefs. They’re pretty much unbeatable.”
I’ll take the Chiefs. I’m not taking the Raiders again until they bust loose and play Antonio Pierce-style football.
BEARS (4-2, 0-2 away) AT MY BELOVED COMMIES (5-2, 3-0 home)
THE CHIEF: “We’re gonna win this game and I’m gonna call (his best buddy) Jim Redpath afterwards and tell him about it.”
MRS BRAVE: “We’re gonna win but it scares me.”
I’m rolling Commies in a tight one with Jayden Daniels at the controls. Stay healthy, young fella.
8:20 PM - NBC/PEACOCK
COWBOYS (3-3, 3-0 away) AT NINERS (3-4, 2-2 home)
THE CHIEF: “I’ll take San Fran coming off that loss to KC.”
MRS BRAVE: “49ers. We had a lot of fun in San Francisco when my alma mater (Bradley) made it to the Sweet 1610.”
Niners in a close one but Dallas is hot on the road.
MONDAY - 8:15 PM - ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
GIANTS (2-5, 2-1 away) AT STEELERS (5-2, 2-1 home)
THE CHIEF: “Steelers. Went to Pittsburgh on a business trip once. Drove past Three Rivers Stadium. You know I like my man Tomlin because of his VMI connection11.”
MRS BRAVE: “I’ll take the Steelers, even though you did.”
Steelers. The Giants won’t rise up until they play the Commies next week.
Note that migrating species of any feather attract birding folks like THE FAIR CLAUDINE aka THE PHILLY FILLY aka THE PHILLY SPECIAL.
TOMMY BIRD’s immediate question: “I don’t recall Moses Malone ever talking football.” Here’s my top three all-timers named: (1) The Biblical figure (2) Malone (3) Haven Moses, a star Buffalo (1968-72) and Denver (1972-81) receiver by way of San Diego State. He ranked 23rd in career receptions at retirement and is in the Broncos Ring of Fame.
Worth noting that Tampa is a distant 32nd at the aforementioned .406. Number #31, the Chicago-St. Louis-Phoenix-Arizona Cardinals are at .422.
Cal, by the way, has produced more Super Bowl-starting quarterbacks than any other school: Vince Ferragamo (Rams), Jared Goff (Rams), Joe Kapp (Minnesota), Craig Morton (Denver) and Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay). Who would’ve thunk it?
Van Note, by the way, dropped the best quote in football history: “Potential is a French word that means you’re not worth a damn.”
Dallas bowed the following week with a 20-7 loss at Philadelphia in the NFC Championship game.
That season ended with a 24-7 Divisional Round defeat in Washington against, perhaps, the best team in NFL history.
Thanks, Pro Football Reference.
The tennis pro is the daughter of Buffalo owners Terry and Kim.
During the 2005-06 season.
Mike Tomlin’s first coaching job was as receivers coach at Virginia Military Institute, alma mater of THE CHIEF.