Week Fourteen Crystal Ball - Weekend: A Big Game in Big Sky Country
Published continually since 1994
My friends, THE GURU is westward this weekend with a group of my Lehigh football brothers. Our goal: securing a win for our beloved Mountain Hawks (9-3, 4-2 away) vs. the high-octane Idaho Vandals (9-3, 5-0 home) in the second round of the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.
The average fan may not consider Idaho a sports powerhouse but, trust me, the 43rd state isn’t small potatoes when it comes to football. In fact, it’s a force with which to be reckoned.
Just look at the three Division I schools located within the state’s 83,000 square miles:
1. Boise State, based in yes, Boise, is a perennial Football Bowl Subdivision power which clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff by beating UNLV last night. This season will mark the team’s 22nd consecutive Bowl game appearance - that is rarified air1, folks.
2. Idaho State, located in Pocatello, is an FCS school in the Big Sky Conference. Famous Bengal alums include former Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis and longtime sack artist Jared Allen, a four-time first team NFL All-Pro during his illustrious 12-year career.
3. The University of Idaho, over in Moscow, also competes in the Big Sky and has sent 81 players to the NFL including a pair of star guards - Green Bay Hall of Famer Jerry Kramer and former Redskin and Bronco Mark Schlereth, the first Alaska native to win a Super Bowl.
The Vandals have also had some excellent head coaches - Dennis Erickson and John L. Smith immediately come to mind - and their current leader, Jason Eck, is no slouch either.
Indeed, Eck has led Idaho to the playoffs in each of his three seasons, the school’s longest postseason appearance streak since a four-year run from 1992-95. A former University of Wisconsin lineman and South Dakota State offensive coordinator, he is a seasoned coach who prepares his troops well.
And that, naturally, brings us to tonight as the Mountain Hawks make their second trip to the Kibbie Dome. Kickoff is at 9 pm ET/6 pm PT on ESPN+ and here’s betting it’ll shake out better for Lehigh than their 1993 trip to Moscow.
In that season’s penultimate week, an on-the-rise LU team suffered a beatdown of biblical proportions, 77-14, scaring the likes of DANCIN’ LANCE from ever entering the state again. Indeed, Idaho records fell like table scraps from THE TRE MAN’s plate as the Vandals scored on 11 of their first 12 possessions in the rout.
Fortunately, LU righted the ship the next week by beating Lafayette, 39-14, powered by six TD passes from THE FLORENCE GUNSLINGER. The win gave the program its first Patriot League championship.
Fast forward three decades and this year’s victory over Lafayette clinched Lehigh’s league-leading 13th title with last week’s win at Richmond the program’s first playoff triumph since 2011. But the precocious Hawks don’t think they’re done yet.
At first glance, yes, the deck is stacked against the boys from PA. They’re 2,500 miles from home. The opponent has a win over FBS Wyoming and a 10-point loss to the top ranked team in America (Oregon). Star fifth-year linebacker Mike DeNucci is on the shelf with a broken leg suffered against Lafayette and junior studs Matt Spatny (DL) and Tyler Ochojski (LB) are out after getting hurt in last week’s win at Richmond.
But, as we’ve learned, Kevin Cahill & Co. aren’t easily scared and, tellingly, they’re playing with a lot of confidence. I see this one as a knock-down, drag-out affair with the teams trading body blows like Hagler and Hearns in 1985. Then, in the second half, Lehigh seizes control behind the steady hand of Cahill and the ingenuity of offensive coordinator Dan Hunt and DC Rich Nagy. Let’s say 27-24, Hawks.
Moving to the pros, Week Fourteen got off to an exciting start as swashbuckling Dan Campbell led the Lions to a 34-31 win over Green Bay. The season record now sits at 125-70 (.658).
Let’s check out the rest of the Week Fourteen schedule with six teams on the bye: My Beloved Commies (8-5), Baltimore (8-5), Denver (8-5), Houston (8-5), Indy (6-7), and New England (3-10).
SUNDAY
1 PM, CBS
Take the Titans (3-9, 1-4 home) over the visiting Jaguars (2-10, 0-6 away). A lost season in Jax only gets worse with QB Trevor Lawrence likely out for the year. That said, the NFL is as unpredictable as my body’s reaction to queso so don’t be surprised if the Jags make it a game…
…speaking of lost seasons, the Jets (3-9, 1-5 away) travel to Miami (5-7, 3-3 home) and I love the Dolphins. This will be the ninth straight losing season for New York, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010 and hasn’t made back-to-back playoff appearances since Rex Ryan roamed the sidelines…
…the Raiders (2-10, 1-6 away) fall at the Bucs (6-6, 2-4 home). I’m a big Antonio Pierce fan but this organization simple isn’t built to win. The former Redskins and Giants LB may need a change of scenery to realize his head-coaching potential…
…the Browns (3-9, 1-5 away) fall at the Steelers (9-3, 4-1 home). I give Cleveland a puncher’s chance in this rivalry game but it’s a tall order to beat a Pittsburgh team that is really humming. What a coaching job by Mike Tomlin to return Russell Wilson to form, eh?
1 PM, FOX
The Falcons (6-6, 3-2 away) visit the Vikings (10-2, 5-1 home) and there will surely be talk about how Minnesota is better off without Kirk Cousins at the controls. That’s a garbage take, folks. Pure poppycock. Nonsense.
The reality: Kirk added QB stability that the team hadn’t had since Daunte Culpepper and Minnesota’s struggles the past few seasons had little to do with the quarterback. To wit: in the three years prior to Cousins’ 2023 blown Achilles injury, the Minnesota defense ranked 29th (2020), 24th (2021), and 30th (2022) in points allowed.
Now, in 2024, the Minnesota defense is ranked fifth in points allowed and, voila, they are in the hunt. Funny how that works.
I’m riding with Kirk in this one, coming off just the second four-interception game of his career. Falcons by a deuce…
…I like the Saints (4-8, 1-4 away) at the Giants (2-10, 0-6 home). New York is well on its way to its 10th losing season in the past 12 campaigns…
…the Panthers (3-9, 1-4 away) travel to Philly (10-2, 4-1 home) and I’m old enough to remember when Carolina was relevant. In fact, in the 2003 postseason, they walked into Lincoln Financial Field as underdogs and emerged as NFC champions. That was a delicious day, folks.
This Panthers outfit is a far cry from that squad but methinks that this Dave Canales fella deserves a shot to make things work as head coach. Heck, after a tough start, he’s got his squad playing better with two wins and two three-point losses (to Tampa and KC) in the past four games.
All that said, the Eagles look like the second-best team in the NFL right now, just behind Dee-troit. Let’s take Sirianni & Co. by seven in a competitive contest.
4:05 PM, CBS
Seahawks (7-5, 4-1 away) at Cardinals (6-6, 4-2 home) is the most pivotal NFC West game in the season to date and it should be a barnburner. Seattle went into San Fran and won a big game last month and I’m betting they can do the same here. Hawks by three.
4:25 PM, FOX
Take the Bills (10-2, 4-2 away) at the Rams (6-6, 3-3 home). I love the figurative cut of LA’s jib, but this Bills squad is bound for the AFC Championship game once again…
…the visiting Bears (4-8, 0-5 away) surprise the Niners (5-7, 3-3 home). Chicago will play inspired football over the rest of the season and San Fran is a mess with its injury situation.
8:15 PM, NBC
The Chargers (8-4, 4-2 away) visit the Chiefs (11-1, 6-0 home) and lose. I’m tempted to pick LA here, but Andy Reid will find a way.
MONDAY
8:15 PM, ESPN/ABC
In the week’s finale, I like the host Cowboys (5-7, 1-5 home) over the Bengals (4-8, 3-3 away). Burrow will dazzle, as always, but Dallas got a bit of its juju back the past two weeks. It’s an upset, yes, but I’m calling it.
That’s it for this week, folks. Enjoy the games and God bless!
This excludes the 2020 COVID season when BSU opted out of a Bowl appearance despite its 5-2 record.
Go Mountain Hawks!