Week Seven Crystal Ball - Thursday: Payton Comes Home
My friends, THE GURU is fired up for Thursday Night Football as the Broncos (3-3, 2-1 away) visit the Saints (2-4, 1-2 home) in the Big Easy. You can catch the action on Amazon Prime at 8:15 pm ET.
The headliner, of course, is ex-New Orleans head coach Sean Payton, now in his second season leading the Broncos. His mark in the Mile High City is a seemingly pedestrian 11-12 (.478) but consider this: in the six seasons (2017-22) immediately before his arrival, Denver was an abysmal 35-63 (.357)1 under four head coaches (including one interim). Kinda puts things in perspective, doesn’t it?
How good was Payton’s tenure in New Orleans? Well, it was as awe-inspiring as ILLINI GURU in the sundae line at the 1988 All-American Bowl2.
Payton’s NOLA resume: Nine postseason appearances in 15 seasons with nine playoff victories, including Super Bowl XLIV against the Colts. And, in the 42 seasons that the team wasn’t led by Payton, the Saints have made five playoff trips with just one win3.
In fact, when it comes to Saints annals, Payton is the franchise leader in every major coaching category: wins, winning percentage, playoff appearances, etc. The #2 guy across the board? Jim Mora, the first coach to take New Orleans to the playoffs, in 1987.
Where does Payton stack up with the all-time greats? Pretty darn well with a .617 regular season win percentage that ranks 34th in league history. That’s better than notables like Bill Walsh (.609), Tom Landry (.607) and Payton’s mentor, Bill Parcells (.569).
Saints-Broncos, of course, is far from an all-time rivalry as the teams have met just 12 times entering tonight with Denver holding a 9-3 edge. And their last meeting was not one for the football ages.
The 2020 Broncos were nearing the tail end of a brutal 5-11 season that featured four double-digit home losses, but the 31-3 defeat to New Orleans may have been the low point. Indeed, Denver gained just 112 yards on offense, the second worst output in franchise history4.
Denver’s performance was marred by ineffective quarterback play or, rather, the lack of a QB altogether, as each of the Broncos’ four signal callers missed the game due to Covid-19 protocol violations. The team finished with five losses in its final six games and Coach Vic Fangio lasted one more season before being dismissed, paving the way for the ill-fated 15-game tenure of Nathaniel Hackett.
Hackett’s full-time replacement was Payton, the former Eastern Illinois University QB whose fellow alums include notable current and/or former NFL players and coaches Brad Childress, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tony Romo and Mike Shanahan.
On Thursday night, his squad faces a Saints team that started hot but is currently on a four-game losing streak. Part of the reason: an injury to starting quarterback Derek Carr, who has been replaced by rookie Spencer Rattler. The first-year man is looking for reinforcements at receiver and faces a Denver defense that is playing good ball: tied for second in touchdowns allowed and ranked fourth in fewest yards per game.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans defense is dead last in yards allowed, a stat that bodes well for the Broncos, who boast a rookie QB of their own in Bo Nix. I think the hosts come to play but, in the end, Payton returns home as a winner. BRONCOS, 19-16
That said, I wouldn’t take my word for it: the season mark sits at a pedestrian 47-42 (.528) after last week’s 9-5 effort. Enjoy TNF and I’ll be back with more this weekend, folks!
In order, the head coaches: Vance Joseph (11-21) in 2017-18; Vic Fangio (19-30) in 2019-21; and Paul Hackett (4-11) and interim HC Jerry Rosburg (1-1) in 2022.
A redshirt freshman has to make his mark, doesn’t he?
The lone victory was under Jim Haslett, a 31-28 win against the St. Louis Rams on Dec. 30, 2000. The Saints held a 31-7 lead with 12 minutes remaining and held on for the victory.
The worst? A 30-0 loss to Philadelphia in 1992 with the Broncos earning four first downs. John Elway threw for 59 yards in the loss. Denver only turned the ball over once but didn’t convert any of its 11 third-down conversion attempts.